-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
538
FXUS64 KSHV 201512
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1012 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Elongated mid-level ridge continues to influence the Four State
Region this morning, with surface high pressure present as clear
skies and calm winds have helped temperatures climb rapidly. That
being said, ASOS/AWOS sites look to match the current diurnal
hourlies, with less than a 2 deg F difference for many sites.
Cumulus field should begin to develop later this afternoon, but
this should not come in the way of maxT`s reaching full potential.
At this time, no adjustments appear necessary with this update,
with a full forecast package available later this afternoon.

KNAPP
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Upper level ridging will dominate over the Four State region
through Saturday, which will result in temperatures roughly 5 to
10 degrees above normal for the time of year. Today will likely be
the hottest day, although in most areas the high temperatures will
probably only be around a degree cooler on Saturday. In general,
max temps will range from the mid to upper 90s with lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Peak heat indices will range from 100 to 105
degrees and those locations briefly hitting Heat Advisory
criteria should be too isolated to warrant an advisory, although
heat stress will be something to contend with for those spending a
lot of time outside over the next few days. We will highlight the
heat stress with a dedicated graphic later this morning.
Otherwise, just expect some scattered high cirrus clouds at times
with winds mainly light from the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Unfortunately, recent trends in numerical weather prediction (NWP) model
guidance have been trending drier for our region over the long
term period. We still anticipate the upper ridge over our region
in the short term period to be weakened and shoved a bit south
early next week as a trough ejecting out the Desert Southwest
strongly impinges on the north side of the ridge. This trough will
be pushing a surface cold front through the Southern Plains on
Sunday and generating showers and storms to our northwest. This
front will start working into our area from the northwest on
Monday with 20 to 30 percent chances of showers and storms roughly
along and northwest of the I-30 corridor. These are areas which
more need the rain, but chances of extremely beneficial rainfall
amounts are quite low. NWP guidance consensus suggests this front
will take its time working through the area Tuesday and Wednesday
and the presence of the front will at least spur slight chances of
showers and storms with weak synoptic lift likely limiting the
potential for significant widespread rainfall. Temperatures will
be trending gradually cooler from late this weekend through the
middle of next week, although Sunday will still feature warm lows
and widespread maximum temps in the low to mid 90s. Sky conditions
will likely be partly cloudy at best from Monday through
Wednesday.

By the middle of next week and through the rest of the week, NWP
operational model and model ensemble guidance exhibits poor
consensus regarding features in our vicinity and this is lowering
confidence in forecast details in that time range. NHC is
advertising a 40% chance of at least one tropical disturbance
organizing and moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico next week.
Assuming this does happen, the most likely scenario is that this
feature would track north or northeast along the cold front
generally expected to finally drift southeast of our area later
Wednesday or Thursday. However, there is so much current NWP
disagreement on upper level trough or ridge steering features by
that time, it is hard to rule out a variety of scenarios. Assuming
any tropical disturbance or moisture plume is directed southeast
or east of our area, the chances of rain after Wednesday will be
quite low heading through the rest of next week. The good news is
that temperatures will probably be closer to average over that
period, which for this time of year means highs in the mid to
upper 80s with lows in the 60s. But, as alluded to above, it is
strongly advised to keep checking back for potential forecast
changes over the coming days, especially because certainty on
details next week is well below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the 20/12z TAF update...Visibility is not behaving like it
should be. Have seen a few locations bottom out around a mile or
less for very brief moments. Nothing widespread and nothing
lasting for an extended period of time. Have added a TEMPO group
to KSHV for lower visibility along with maintaining the previous
TEMPO for KMLU and KLFK. Thinking this should all come to an end
later this morning shortly after sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue through the rest of today. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  76  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  94  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  96  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  97  75  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  96  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  98  75  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  97  73  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  93  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...33