Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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155 FXUS64 KSHV 181525 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1025 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1021 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 As of 10:30 AM, temperatures are approaching the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies and southeasterly winds. Afternoon temperatures will reach the lower 90s with onshore convection expected to develop and propagate into the area through the evening. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/
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&& .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, labeled as Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One), continues to support an impressive northward advecting moisture channel into the Ark-La- Tex this morning. At the same time, regional radar imagery advertises weak reflectivity returns, increasing in coverage, across much of southern and eastern Louisiana. While there is little ground truth that precip is falling at this time, not ruling out light showers through the early morning just yet. Confidence in convective coverage continues to be focused around the afternoon period as better daytime heating evolves. Given that temperatures over performed yesterday under ample cloud coverage, elected to bump MaxT`s a degree or two above the base NBM output. Again, highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s are expected. Obviously, any rain cooling that occurs this morning and prior to peak daytime heating will delay afternoon heating potential. By Wednesday morning, guidance suggests that PTC One will be somewhat better organized when compared to it`s current state, and tracking off to the WNW, coming onshore in NE Mexico by the late evening, possibly overnight Wednesday into Thursday AM. As this is occurring, upper-ridging present over the eastern CONUS will strengthen and expand, influencing the Ark-La-Tex as it gradually displaces the rich tropical moisture to the west, replacing it with a drier atmospheric column aloft. This will shift the rain focus towards east Texas through Wednesday afternoon, with the highest confidence in respectable measurable precip being located across Deep East Texas. It is worth mentioning however that the track of PTC One has shifted south from run to run, and with it, the axis of tropical moisture and QPF response. As a result, it is possible that the afternoon package could see a further decrease in PoPs across the region Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday evening, rainfall will be little to none as we head into the overnight. RK && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Heights aloft will continue to increase from east to west across the Ark-La-Tex on Thursday, as the upper-ridge expands. Guidance advertises as 597-598 dam ridge across the Tennessee Valley by Thursday afternoon. Under the influence of the ridge, rain chances will be non-existent as temperatures quickly rebound back in to the mid 90`s, possibly warmer. Temperatures will only continue to climb through the end of the week and heading in to the weekend as rain chances will be trapped along the Louisiana coastline. For now, upper 90`s look to make a return to the region through the weekend, and possibly as deep as early next week. By Saturday, the previously mentioned easterly sfc winds will become more southerly, reintroducing GOM moisture. Given that temperatures will approach the upper 90`s, and the increase of area dew points via gulf moisture advection, it is becoming increasingly likely that heat products will be needed in the coming days. Given drier than expected conditions over the last several days, and an extended dry period to end the week, it is possible temperatures may be higher than the currently advertised values. Be sure to monitor the forecast through the week for updates. RK && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 MVFR/IFR ceilings currently prevailing across the western half of our airspace with VFR conditions prevailing across our extreme east. Very light rain falling out of AC deck over near the MLU terminal attm. As we go through the day, look for MVFR/IFR ceilings to lift and or scatter out. Continued to go with VCTS for terminals along and south of the I-20 Corridor, mainly by late this afternoon into the evening hours. Any convection should dissipate late this evening. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 76 90 77 / 20 20 20 0 MLU 86 73 91 72 / 20 20 10 0 DEQ 90 70 86 71 / 20 10 10 0 TXK 91 73 89 73 / 20 10 10 0 ELD 87 70 88 70 / 20 10 10 0 TYR 92 73 86 74 / 10 20 30 10 GGG 91 73 86 74 / 20 20 20 10 LFK 88 73 86 74 / 30 30 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...13