Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
928 FXUS64 KSHV 180912 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 412 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, labeled as Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One), continues to support an impressive northward advecting moisture channel into the Ark-La- Tex this morning. At the same time, regional radar imagery advertises weak reflectivity returns, increasing in coverage, across much of southern and eastern Louisiana. While there is little ground truth that precip is falling at this time, not ruling out light showers through the early morning just yet. Confidence in convective coverage continues to be focused around the afternoon period as better daytime heating evolves. Given that temperatures over performed yesterday under ample cloud coverage, elected to bump MaxT`s a degree or two above the base NBM output. Again, highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s are expected. Obviously, any rain cooling that occurs this morning and prior to peak daytime heating will delay afternoon heating potential. By Wednesday morning, guidance suggests that PTC One will be somewhat better organized when compared to it`s current state, and tracking off to the WNW, coming onshore in NE Mexico by the late evening, possibly overnight Wednesday into Thursday AM. As this is occurring, upper-ridging present over the eastern CONUS will strengthen and expand, influencing the Ark-La-Tex as it gradually displaces the rich tropical moisture to the west, replacing it with a drier atmospheric column aloft. This will shift the rain focus towards east Texas through Wednesday afternoon, with the highest confidence in respectable measurable precip being located across Deep East Texas. It is worth mentioning however that the track of PTC One has shifted south from run to run, and with it, the axis of tropical moisture and QPF response. As a result, it is possible that the afternoon package could see a further decrease in PoPs across the region Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday evening, rainfall will be little to none as we head into the overnight. RK
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Heights aloft will continue to increase from east to west across the Ark-La-Tex on Thursday, as the upper-ridge expands. Guidance advertises as 597-598 dam ridge across the Tennessee Valley by Thursday afternoon. Under the influence of the ridge, rain chances will be non-existent as temperatures quickly rebound back in to the mid 90`s, possibly warmer. Temperatures will only continue to climb through the end of the week and heading in to the weekend as rain chances will be trapped along the Louisiana coastline. For now, upper 90`s look to make a return to the region through the weekend, and possibly as deep as early next week. By Saturday, the previously mentioned easterly sfc winds will become more southerly, reintroducing GOM moisture. Given that temperatures will approach the upper 90`s, and the increase of area dew points via gulf moisture advection, it is becoming increasingly likely that heat products will be needed in the coming days. Given drier than expected conditions over the last several days, and an extended dry period to end the week, it is possible temperatures may be higher than the currently advertised values. Be sure to monitor the forecast through the week for updates. RK
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Mid and high level ceilings are plentiful across the eastern half of our airspace currently with IFR/MVFR ceilings developing quickly in the vicinity of our NE TX terminals. Given the moisture in place not to mention the pressure gradient, would expect IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop areawide the closer we get to sunrise and can`t rule out an LIFR ceiling or two as well. Those ceilings should lift throughout the day, eventually becoming low VFR ceilings. Did introduce VCTS closer to 23z for all terminals near and south of the I-20 Corridor leaving TXK and ELD out. Did start convection a little earlier in the day at the LFK terminal. Look for ESE to SE winds near 10kts with higher gusts by late morning into the afternoon hours outside of convection today. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHV 90 76 90 77 / 20 20 20 0 MLU 86 73 91 72 / 20 20 10 0 DEQ 90 70 86 71 / 20 10 10 0 TXK 91 73 89 73 / 20 10 10 0 ELD 87 70 88 70 / 20 10 10 0 TYR 92 73 86 74 / 10 20 30 10 GGG 91 73 86 74 / 20 20 20 10 LFK 88 73 86 74 / 30 30 40 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...13