Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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600 FXUS64 KSHV 170337 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1037 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this time. /44/
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&& .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A weak perturbation in the flow aloft is rotating around the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Carolinas. This disturbance has resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze from Southern Louisiana eastward into the Florida Panhandle. These showers and thunderstorms have been gradually moving north or north-northwest and are just now moving north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Most of this activity is diurnally-driven and should gradually dissipate during the evening hours. However, some of the thunderstorms may persist far enough north to affect portions of Northeast and North Central Louisiana this evening, mainly southeast of a line from Toledo Bend Dam to Monroe before dissipating completely. The majority of the overnight hours tonight should remain dry, but the weak disturbance will still be drifting northward along the Mississippi River. This may result in some early development of the daytime convection on Monday. Much more widespread and robust showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon as instability peaks and as the plume of tropical moisture from the Gulf flow directly overhead. Most locations should see at least some chance for rain, but the highest chances for rain should be across Central and Northeast Louisiana. The rain and associated cloud cover should cool daytime temperatures considerably. High temperatures on Monday are only expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Once again, the convection should gradually dissipate by to mid to late evening as daytime instability wanes leaving most of the night precip-free. Given the rich tropical moisture available, some of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. CN && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Deep onshore flow will persist into Tuesday as a tropical system slowly moves toward the mouth of the Rio Grande River. However, low-level winds should have a more easterly component, which may advect slightly drier air into the region and result in some lower rain chances are compared to Monday. However, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected areawide for Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances will become more confined to East Texas and Western Louisiana on Wednesday as the tropical system moves farther inland, and surface winds become easterly cutting off the deeper layer moisture. The greatest convective coverage will be during the afternoons and diminishing during the early to mid evening. If any locations receive multiple rounds of storms Monday through Wednesday, there could be a threat for some localized flooding as the tropical moisture will promote efficient rainfall producers. However, any flooding threat is currently expected to be too isolated and too uncertain to issue any watches. For Thursday through Saturday, rain chances will be diminished significantly, but isolated diurnal convection will still be possible due to the daily sea breeze and as a series of weak upper level disturbances move west along the Gulf coast on the southern periphery of the East Coast ridge. Unfortunately, with chances for wetting rains becoming very limited, there will be little to stop the heat and humidity from returning after Wednesday. A relatively fast warming trend to can be expected to end the work week and for next weekend. Daytime high temperatures should return to the middle to upper 90s in most locations by next Friday or Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 For the 17/00z TAFS...VFR conditions across all TAF sites currently. Could see an isolated storm at KMLU over the next couple hours before conditions quiet down for the night. Should see some cigs move into the region this evening and overnight, which is expected to lower to MVFR and possibly IFR categories before and just after daybreak areawide. These cigs should hold through the afternoon, with widespread convection expected after 17/21z. Winds will remain from the ESE, possibly with gusts near 20 kts or greater around stronger storms towards the end of the period. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 91 76 88 / 0 50 20 40 MLU 73 89 72 85 / 20 70 20 30 DEQ 71 89 71 88 / 0 30 10 30 TXK 75 92 73 90 / 0 40 10 30 ELD 72 89 71 85 / 10 50 10 30 TYR 74 90 74 90 / 0 40 10 20 GGG 74 90 73 89 / 0 50 10 30 LFK 74 89 73 86 / 10 60 20 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...20