-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
539
FXUS64 KSHV 150548
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1248 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will remain over the
region overnight, resulting in mostly clear skies with calm to
light/variable winds. This should allow for very good radiational
cooling. Because of this, decided to lower overnight temps a few
degrees in some locations. Also, can`t rule out some patchy fog in
a few locations, but it should be only for a couple of hours just
before sunrise. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Strong subsidence persists across the region as surface and
upper-level ridging build overhead. This has allowed temperatures
to warm well into the 90s today. Radiational cooling should result
in overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees in most
locations. The upper-level ridge will translate east of the area
tonight, while a shortwave trough over of Colorado begins to
eject northeast into the Central Plains. Southerly surface winds
should also return overnight as the surface ridge moves off to the
east and surface lee troughing becomes more dominant. There may be
just enough southerly flow and moisture increase to support some
patchy fog during the early morning hours of Saturday,
particularly in the terrain of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest
Arkansas and around the lakes of Deep East Texas.

Another day with abundant sunshine is expected for Saturday. With
southerly winds prevailing, warm air advection will also return,
which should enhance the warming trend slightly. Saturday should
be the hottest day during the next week. I trended slightly above
guidance given the return of south winds. The entire forecast area
should warm into the mid to upper 90s. Some portions of Louisiana
and Southern Arkansas may be very close to triple digits. Peak
heat index values may approach Heat Advisory criteria in a few
isolated locations. Otherwise, no precip is expected for the
short-term period.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The long-term period will be characterized by a typical summer
pattern consisting of near daily chances for mainly diurnally-
driven, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland and northward. As
southerly winds increase on Sunday, more warm and moist air should
be advected into the region. A plume of tropical moisture is
expected to surge inland, which could provide isolated diurnally-
driven sea breeze convection Sunday afternoon south of a line from
Lufkin to Jena. Monday should be the day with the highest and
most widespread rain chances as the tropical moisture plumes
streams directly overhead along with increase onshore winds.

A potential tropical cyclone is progged to move northwest from the
Bay of Campeche and into Northern Mexico during the latter half of
the week. Southeasterly mid-level winds north of the cyclone
should keep some rain chances in the forecast, even during the
overnight hours after Tuesday. However, surface winds are expected
to become more easterly, especially Wednesday through Friday,
greatly limiting the northward extent of Gulf moisture. Thus, rain
chances will become increasingly confined to our southernmost
zones after Tuesday.

The increased rain chances and associated cloud cover should daytime
high temperatures should be cooled back to near climatology
Sunday through Wednesday, which generally ranges from the upper
80s to lower 90s. However, as rain chances become diminish around
midweek another slow warming trend can be expected with
increasingly hot and humid conditions likely.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

No major changes to the present TAF forecast as the airspace
remains under the influence of upper ridging. VFR conditions will
prevail across the airspace through the period as early morning
SKC develops into an afternoon CU field, mainly sub FL100.
Terminal winds will trend VRB through the morning, but a return
to sfc southerlies will be ongoing through the period. By 00z, the
aforementioned CU field should begin to dissipate, with a return
to mostly SKC by the evening.

RK
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHV  98  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  98  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  95  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  94  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  72  95  75 /   0   0  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...53