-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
775
FXUS64 KSHV 160910
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
410 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine, currently located
across Central Arkansas, will continue to meander near the region
today. In fact, models suggest it will shift southward into
Southern Arkansas and possibly adjacent Northern Louisiana by this
evening. Because of this close proximity, rain chances will
spread across a large portion of the region today, and possibly
continue into the evening and overnight hours early Tuesday
morning. Most of the precip should fall as light rain showers, but
an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out. The coverage should
diminish as we lose daytime heating, but some light rain or
drizzle could remain tonight and before daybreak Tuesday. Expect
cooler afternoon temps today because of the rain and cloud cover,
with highs in the low to mid 80s. Could see some slightly warmer
temps across portions of East Texas, generally along and west of a
line from Tyler to Nacogdoches. Lows tonight will once again fall
into the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly to mostly cloudy
skies.

On Tuesday morning, the remnants of Francine will shift southward
along the Louisiana/Mississippi border, with more light rain and
drizzle possible over the area during this period, especially
across our Central Louisiana zones. However, models suggest
Francine remnants will get absorb into a deepening trough across
the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS, as another potential
tropical cyclone moves into that region out of the Carolinas. This
should bring a return in dry conditions, but with clouds remaining
over a good chunk of the region, expect slightly below normal
temps to remain. Highs are forecast to top out in the mid to
upper 80s Tuesday afternoon.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

By Tuesday night, upper ridging will build into the region and
remain in place through the remainder of the upcoming work week.
Expect quiet and mostly sunny conditions during this period, with
highs eventually returning into the low to mid 90s, along with
overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we move
into next weekend, the ridge will get squeezed in between an
approaching longwave trough moving into the Plains out of the
Rockies, and the aforementioned trough that absorbed the remnants
of Francine across the SE CONUS. Most of Saturday will remain dry,
but long-term progs are hinting at the trough pushing to near the
Interstate 30 corridor by Saturday evening and then shifting more
eastward on Sunday, bisecting the region. This would result in
rain chances returning into the region. However, some progs
suggest the ridge will remain firm over the region, keeping the
trough from moving into our area. Decided to introduce slight POPs
over the weekend to be on the safe side. The ridge looks to
return by the early portions of next week, bringing a return in
dry conditions. /20/
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Low level moisture in the form of MVFR and IFR ceilings will be
advecting south and west this morning from Central and Southwest
Arkansas and should have encompassed all but maybe our NE TX
terminals by sunrise. Cannot rule out the possibility of some
patchy fog as well across our terminals through 14-15z or so.
Should see slow ceiling improvement by mid to late morning, maybe
a little later at the ELD/MLU/TXK terminals. Did introduce VCSH
at all terminals with the exception of our NE TX terminals given
the forcing in place to our north and east to go along with
available moisture. Look for mostly N to NE winds today with
speeds generally under 10kts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV  85  72  86  71 /  30  20  10   0
MLU  83  69  85  67 /  50  20  10   0
DEQ  83  66  86  65 /  30  20  10   0
TXK  83  69  86  69 /  30  20  10   0
ELD  81  66  84  65 /  50  20  10   0
TYR  87  70  88  71 /  10  20  10   0
GGG  86  69  86  70 /  20  20  10   0
LFK  89  69  89  71 /  10  20  10   0
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&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13