-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
912
FXUS64 KSHV 161521
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1021 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Made a few minor adjustments to cloud cover over the next few
hours, based on recent trends in satellite imagery. Otherwise, the
forecast appears to be largely on track.

Water vapor imagery this morning continues to show a distinct
vorticity maximum associated with the remnants of Tropical System
Francine near the AR and MS border, with a weak sfc trough
located in the same general vicinity.

These features will remain the focus for the development and
expansion in coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening across the ArkLaTex, especially as the
mid/upper level vort max moves southward into NE LA. Overall
rainfall amounts will be light, generally less than 0.25 inches,
although cannot rule out a few brief, heavier downpours in the
stronger convective cells. Activity will then decrease in coverage
after sunset and into the overnight hours.

With more cloud cover in some areas this morning, especially E TX,
high temperatures may be just shy of current forecast, however, do
expect sun breaks and some scattering to continue through the
afternoon, so will not make any adjustments to temperatures with
this update.

Kovacik
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine, currently located
across Central Arkansas, will continue to meander near the region
today. In fact, models suggest it will shift southward into
Southern Arkansas and possibly adjacent Northern Louisiana by this
evening. Because of this close proximity, rain chances will
spread across a large portion of the region today, and possibly
continue into the evening and overnight hours early Tuesday
morning. Most of the precip should fall as light rain showers, but
an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out. The coverage should
diminish as we lose daytime heating, but some light rain or
drizzle could remain tonight and before daybreak Tuesday. Expect
cooler afternoon temps today because of the rain and cloud cover,
with highs in the low to mid 80s. Could see some slightly warmer
temps across portions of East Texas, generally along and west of a
line from Tyler to Nacogdoches. Lows tonight will once again fall
into the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly to mostly cloudy
skies.

On Tuesday morning, the remnants of Francine will shift southward
along the Louisiana/Mississippi border, with more light rain and
drizzle possible over the area during this period, especially
across our Central Louisiana zones. However, models suggest
Francine remnants will get absorb into a deepening trough across
the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS, as another potential
tropical cyclone moves into that region out of the Carolinas. This
should bring a return in dry conditions, but with clouds remaining
over a good chunk of the region, expect slightly below normal
temps to remain. Highs are forecast to top out in the mid to
upper 80s Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

By Tuesday night, upper ridging will build into the region and
remain in place through the remainder of the upcoming work week.
Expect quiet and mostly sunny conditions during this period, with
highs eventually returning into the low to mid 90s, along with
overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we move
into next weekend, the ridge will get squeezed in between an
approaching longwave trough moving into the Plains out of the
Rockies, and the aforementioned trough that absorbed the remnants
of Francine across the SE CONUS. Most of Saturday will remain dry,
but long-term progs are hinting at the trough pushing to near the
Interstate 30 corridor by Saturday evening and then shifting more
eastward on Sunday, bisecting the region. This would result in
rain chances returning into the region. However, some progs
suggest the ridge will remain firm over the region, keeping the
trough from moving into our area. Decided to introduce slight POPs
over the weekend to be on the safe side. The ridge looks to
return by the early portions of next week, bringing a return in
dry conditions. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A mixture of MVFR, IFR and LIFR ceilings across all but the
southwest third of our airspace early this morning. For the most
part the fog has been patchy at best but cannot rule out a brief
reduction in VSBY at almost any terminal through 14-15z this
morning. Ceilings should scatter out and/or lift to VFR levels by
late morning/afternoon but will be a little slower to do so at the
ELD terminal. Continued with the VCSH mention across most terminal
locations with the exception of our NE TX terminals, mainly during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Looking like a return to at
least MVFR ceilings overnight again tonight. Look for winds mostly
from the N to NE near or below 10ks through the day...diminishing
this evening and overnight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  72  86  71 /  30  20  10   0
MLU  83  69  85  67 /  50  20  10   0
DEQ  83  66  86  65 /  30  20  10   0
TXK  83  69  86  69 /  30  20  10   0
ELD  81  66  84  65 /  50  20  10   0
TYR  87  70  88  71 /  10  20  10   0
GGG  86  69  86  70 /  20  20  10   0
LFK  89  69  89  71 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13