Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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556 FXUS64 KSJT 220843 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 343 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...Thunderstorms expected this afternoon through tonight... Currently, an upper level low is located over CO, with southwest flow over west central Texas. This low is expected to open into a wave while slowly moving east into the central and southern plains by Monday morning. This will maintain southwesterly flow over our area. At the surface, a cold front is expected to move south into our CWA by this afternoon, making its way through the rest of the area by late tonight. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon, and continue through most of the overnight hours. With temperatures warming well into the 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, combined with plentiful low level moisture (precipitable water values near 2 inches), low levels will destabilize ahead of the front. Mixed layer CAPE values are forecast to be in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range during peak heating hours. Deep layer shear values of 40 to 50 knots over the area, combined with the instability will allow some of the storms to become strong, with a few storms possibly severe. The main concern with the storms will be wind gusts over 60 mph, but hail up to the size of quarters will also be possible. After sunset, instability will wane, and although storms may continue, the concern for severe weather will diminish. The other concern will be heavy rain and localized flooding with precipitable water values near 2 inches. Storms are expected to develop first over the Big Country along the front, then spread southward over the rest of the area during the afternoon and overnight hours as the front moves south. Overall coverage should diminish late tonight, but isolated to scattered activity will still be possible after midnight, mainly south of Interstate 20.
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&& .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Rain chances and cool temperatures to continue through Wednesday. Drier with a slow warming trend expected Thursday into the weekend... An upper low over Colorado is expected to open into a trough as it moves into the Central Great Plains late Sunday into Monday. This will put our area in the troughing regime with an upper high generally located to our southeast along the Texas Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be pushing into our area with showers and storms ongoing by 00Z Monday. The front will progress through most of the area by 12Z Monday. There is expected to be a lull in activity for much of day on Monday as the front slowly retreats back to the north and zonal flow aloft prevails. Isolated to scattered chances for precipitation remains as an embedded shortwave impulse aloft cannot be ruled out. Convective activity begins to ramp back up Tuesday as a weak secondary trough is expected to develop just to our north and west with the frontal boundary still in our general area. Moisture will still be abundant with above normal pWats across the area in the 1.4+ inch range. This activity will not be as focused along the front (as compared to Sunday) and is expected to be more scattered in nature leading to widespread chance PoPs through early Wednesday. As the surface forcing begins to weaken across our area with the front pushing south, activity will become more nebulous and should eventually come to an end by late Wednesday. Temperatures during this timeframe will be well below normal for this time of year with highs Monday and Wednesday being the coolest in the mid 70s to low 80s. Highs Tuesday will be a bit warmer with the front drifting back north in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be cool in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Uncertainty in the upper pattern begins to take shape later in the week. Mid range models tend to agree that an upper low will drop out of the Upper Plains and Midwest by late Wednesday into Thursday and should stall out. Where exactly the low stalls out remains a point of contention. The general consensus though is that much drier air will filter in behind the cold front Wednesday and that West Central Texas will be on the backside of this upper low in an area of greater subsidence. Most ensemble members of both the GFS and ECMWF keep our area free of precipitation from Thursday through next weekend. We will see a gradual warming trend, largely due to the 850 mb thermal ridge slowly working its way back into our area as we will still be seeing a dry northerly wind at the surface. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows getting slightly cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 MVFR ceilings are expected to move into all sites except KABI by 12Z Sunday morning. These low clouds are expected to scatter out or rise to VFR heights by 17Z. Later in the day, a cold front will move into the area, with TSRA expected to develop along the front. KABI will be first impacted between 18Z and 21Z, with KSJT next between 21Z and 00Z late tomorrow afternoon. KBBD, KSOA, and KJCT should not see storms hit until after 00Z. If storms move in faster than currently expected, these times will have to be adjusted by future forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene 91 59 75 62 / 60 80 30 20 San Angelo 93 62 76 63 / 50 80 40 20 Junction 92 66 82 65 / 10 40 40 10 Brownwood 91 64 78 64 / 30 60 40 20 Sweetwater 88 59 75 63 / 80 70 20 20 Ozona 89 63 77 64 / 30 70 40 20 Brady 91 64 78 64 / 20 50 40 20
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&& .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...20