Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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255 FXUS64 KSJT 200818 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 318 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 As of 230 AM, a broad swath of light to very light rain was impacting most areas south and east of an Albany to Ozona line. Rainfall rates with these showers are topping out at a few hundredths an hour with the highest around 2 tenths of an inch an hour across far southeastern Mason County. As this rain spreads north and west, it seems to be losing its strength with radar returns weakening significantly and most of this rain likely not reaching the ground. A band of heavier rain is currently moving through Llano and Gillespie counties and is moving west northwest towards Kimble and Mason counties. Heavier rainfall rates closer to 3-4 tenths of an inch per hour can be expected with this but it is moving fairly quickly so the heavier burst will be short lived. The overall complex of rain is expected to slowly drift west/northwest through the morning with the bulk of the activity out of our area by around 18Z. With our area on the far western periphery of the upper ridge, some minor upper level impulses may provide just enough additional lift to create some showers and storms, especially across the southern half of the area as abundant moisture will still be in place, along with marginal instability at around 500-800 J/kg SBCAPE. These are expected to be more diurnal in nature and are not expected to be severe. They should gradually dissipate after sunset with the overnight hours expected to be dry across the area. Daytime highs will remain cooler in the mid to upper 80s with gusty east winds. Overnight lows will be about the same as before in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM...
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(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A warming and drying trend will begin on Friday, as high pressure rebuilds across West Central Texas and warm southerly flow persists through the middle of next week. Afternoon high temperatures will start off in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Friday, increase into the mid 90s to near 100 by the end of the weekend, then rise into the upper 90s to up to 104 by Wednesday. Unfortunately, there are no precipitation chances expected through the long term forecast at this point.
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&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR to IFR conditions currently present across the area right now as a swath of showers moves in from the southeast. These showers have had minimal impact on visibility so far with most sites staying above 6 miles, apart from KJCT where 5 mile visibility looks to linger through the overnight hours. Ceilings at all sites are expected to drop further to between MVFR and IFR later overnight. Our southern sites, KJCT and KSOA, will see gusts out of the east continue through the overnight hours between 18-25 kts with the other sites seeing gusts drop off. The rain showers will gradually move out through the morning hours with all sites returning to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. There remains a chance for isolated shower/storm activity during the afternoon but coverage is still too spotty to include a mention in this package. MVFR ceilings will return to our southern terminals before 06Z tomorrow night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 86 71 90 72 / 20 10 0 0 San Angelo 88 71 92 71 / 50 20 10 0 Junction 87 72 89 70 / 40 30 10 0 Brownwood 87 71 89 70 / 20 10 0 0 Sweetwater 86 71 91 71 / 40 10 0 0 Ozona 86 70 88 70 / 60 30 10 10 Brady 85 71 86 70 / 20 20 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...50