Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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699 FXUS64 KSJT 141119 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 619 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The benign pattern looks to continue for the short-term with longwave ridging extending northeast out of the Baja California region into Western Texas. Highs today will range from the lower 90s across our eastern counties to around 101 for western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. The "cooler" temperatures to the east will be due to higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 sticking around through the afternoon. As we move through today, the ridge will begin to weaken as a shortwave impulse moves out of the Southern Rockies and into the Texas Panhandle but any shower/storm activity associated with this should stay well off to our north and west. Overnight lows will be similar to the past few nights in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A shortwave trough will pass by to our north on Saturday, with the upper high shifting eastward into the southeast states and mid Atlantic region Sunday into early next week. Any precipitation associated with the shortwave will remain well north of our area, with dry weather persisting. Temperatures will continue to be near to above normal for this time of year, with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s across eastern sections, and upper 90s to near 100 over western sections. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, with lows in the low to mid 70s. A large upper trough will develop over the western half of the CONUS by mid week, with our area on the western periphery of the upper ridge. Latest medium range models show the potential for some tropical development over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the early to middle part of next week, with NHC indicating a 40 percent chance of a tropical system developing during this time frame. Latest models show the potential for a tropical system to move westward into south Texas and Mexico by mid to late week, which would result in an increase in moisture and precipitation chances across our area. For now, will maintain low POPs beyond Wednesday, along with cooler temperatures due to an increase in moisture and cloud cover. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions currently present across the area. Some scattered clouds are starting to build across the Hill Country but current observations indicate these are generally staying at low-end VFR instead of previously forecasted MVFR. To account for the potential instances of MVFR, have included a TEMPO grouping at KJCT this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light winds out of the southeast will shift to a more east/southeasterly direction by this afternoon with some sites seeing gusts to between 15-18 kts before coming back down by this evening.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 100 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 98 73 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 93 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 98 73 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 96 73 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 93 72 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...50