-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
699
FXUS64 KSJT 141119
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
619 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The benign pattern looks to continue for the short-term with
longwave ridging extending northeast out of the Baja California
region into Western Texas. Highs today will range from the lower
90s across our eastern counties to around 101 for western portions
of the Concho Valley and Big Country. The "cooler" temperatures
to the east will be due to higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to
near 70 sticking around through the afternoon. As we move through
today, the ridge will begin to weaken as a shortwave impulse moves
out of the Southern Rockies and into the Texas Panhandle but any
shower/storm activity associated with this should stay well off to
our north and west. Overnight lows will be similar to the past
few nights in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A shortwave trough will pass by to our north on Saturday, with
the upper high shifting eastward into the southeast states and
mid Atlantic region Sunday into early next week. Any
precipitation associated with the shortwave will remain well
north of our area, with dry weather persisting. Temperatures will
continue to be near to above normal for this time of year, with
highs ranging from the low to mid 90s across eastern sections, and
upper 90s to near 100 over western sections. Overnight temperatures
will remain warm, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

A large upper trough will develop over the western half of the
CONUS by mid week, with our area on the western periphery of the
upper ridge. Latest medium range models show the potential for
some tropical development over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
the early to middle part of next week, with NHC indicating a 40
percent chance of a tropical system developing during this time
frame. Latest models show the potential for a tropical system to
move westward into south Texas and Mexico by mid to late week,
which would result in an increase in moisture and precipitation
chances across our area. For now, will maintain low POPs beyond
Wednesday, along with cooler temperatures due to an increase
in moisture and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. Some scattered
clouds are starting to build across the Hill Country but current
observations indicate these are generally staying at low-end VFR
instead of previously forecasted MVFR. To account for the potential
instances of MVFR, have included a TEMPO grouping at KJCT this
morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
Light winds out of the southeast will shift to a more
east/southeasterly direction by this afternoon with some sites
seeing gusts to between 15-18 kts before coming back down by this
evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  72  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    98  73  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   93  70  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  98  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       93  72  92  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...50