-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
680
FXUS64 KSJT 191923
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

All eyes are on the newly-formed Tropical Storm Alberto, located in
the Bay of Campeche, as this will be the main source of weather
concerns through Thursday night.  As of this afternoon, clouds were
increasing across west central Texas with the approaching system.
While the main circulation should stay well to the south along the
Mexican coast, a northern arm of the upper-level structure has
started to sweep westward into the southern half of Texas.  This is
evidenced by the large rainband currently located along the I-35
corridor.  As the feature tracks westward, the rain should sweep
mainly through the Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau through
tomorrow morning.  Rain should reach our southeast counties,
including cities such as Junction, San Saba and Mason. The heaviest
rainfall amounts tonight are expected further south with the higher
PWAT values, although these should only range in the 0.25 to 0.50
inch range.  At this point, chances for thunderstorms this evening
and overnight look fairly low as overall instability will be low
with this initial band, but isolated strikes are still possible.

By sunrise, the rain band will have reached the Pecos River, but
should leave a trailing area of moist and unstable air in its wake
across the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau and through the Hill
Country. Low clouds should be prevalent across the region through
the morning hours before some breaks appear around midday.  Chances
for thunderstorms should therefore increase by tomorrow afternoon
with CAPE values of around 2000 J/kg. Given the tropical-based
airmass with fairly low LCL heights, any storms that develop should
be single-cell and scattered in nature. PWAT values should increase
to above 2 inches so thunderstorms could produce brief heavy
downpours, although chances for severe storms are low.

As Alberto pushes into central Mexico and degenerates into a remnant
low Thursday evening, chances for rain will diminish and become
confined to Crockett County and the western Concho Valley Thursday
night.  A more stable airmass should take over by early Friday
morning as a broad upper ridge, located over the Ohio Valley, starts
to build into west central Texas.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...Lingering tropical moisture through Thursday, then a drying
and warming trend from Friday into mid next week...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which will likely become Tropical
Storm Alberto today, and is forecast to track due west into
northern Mexico by Thursday morning. Given this more westerly
track, the bulk of heavier precipitation is expected to remain
confined to the south and southwestern portions of West Central
Texas for Thursday. As the system weakens and track further east
as a tropical depression Thursday night, precipitation chances
begin to diminish overnight into early Friday morning mainly
across the Northern Edwards Plateau. The increased cloud cover
will keep cooler temperatures across the area for Thursday, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

Friday begins a warming and drying trend that will persist into
the middle of next week, with afternoon high temperatures on
Friday ranging in the mid 80s to mid 90s, then gradually
increasing to the mid 90s to near 102 by next Wednesday. Overnight
lows will remain fairly steady in the upper 60s to mid 70s through
the weekend, and then in the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Variable and ragged MVFR ceilings expected through the afternoon
with chances for rain showers increasing after 00Z. Ceilings
should continue to lower overnight to around IFR and persist
through late morning Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene     72  87  71  90 /  20  30   0   0
San Angelo  72  88  71  93 /  30  40  10  10
Junction    72  87  71  90 /  60  40  10  10
Brownwood   73  87  71  89 /  30  20   0   0
Sweetwater  71  86  71  90 /  20  30  10   0
Ozona       71  85  70  89 /  50  50  30  10
Brady       71  85  70  86 /  50  30  10  10
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&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK