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300
FXUS64 KSJT 190532
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As of the 2 PM hour low level stratus has scattered out across
most of the area. South-southeast winds, however, have remained
quite gusty this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 mph earlier at
Abilene. The gusty conditions will continue through the remainder
of the afternoon and evening hours. Low level moisture will
continue advecting into the area overnight resulting in another
round of low cloud development. Meanwhile, we continue to watch
the potential tropical system down in the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms spreading
inland across the middle and lower Texas coast on Wednesday, with
this activity spreading westward to the I-35 corridor by the
afternoon. CAMs keep most of our area dry through the much of the
day, with some scattered showers and storms perhaps moving into
our southeastern counties by the mid-late afternoon. Will keep
40-50% PoPs confined to that area, with lesser PoPs back to the
west from San Angelo to Abilene. Cloud cover for most of the day
will keep our temperatures down in the middle 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The tropical disturbance in the western Gulf is forecast to become
Tropical Storm Alberto later today and track into northern Mexico.
The track would take the heaviest rainfall into northern Mexico and
South Texas, which would keep the bulk of rainfall south West
Central Texas. Still, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible Wednesday night into Thursday, with the highest chances
across our southern counties. Given the farther south track into
northern Mexico, rain amounts across West Central Texas are looking
lower than previously forecast. Rainfall amounts will be higher
along I-10, in the 3/4 to 1 inch range, with amounts across the Big
Country forecast to generally remain below 1/4 inch. The increased
cloud cover will result in cooler temperatures. Highs on Thursday
will be in the 80s with highs on Friday  in the mid 80s to lower
90s.

Expect a general increase in temperatures this weekend into the
start of next week, with drier conditions. Highs Saturday will be
back in the low to mid 90s, with highs Sunday in the mid 90s to near
100.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. MVFR stratus is
beginning to build across the Hill Country and will build
northwest over the coming hours, impacting all terminals. Unlike
yesterday, this are not expected to scatter out later in the day
but most sites, besides KJCT, should see ceilings lift to low end
VFR by this afternoon. Southeast winds should lose their gusts for
at least a few hours overnight before picking back up later this
morning, backing to a more easterly direction. Chances for showers
will begin to impact our southeastern terminals by late
morning/early afternoon, with more substantial shower activity
expected to move in later in the evening. Have used latest hi-res
guidance for timing but this will likely need to be adjusted with
future updates.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene     87  70  87  71 /  20  30  20  10
San Angelo  89  72  89  71 /  20  50  40  10
Junction    84  72  87  72 /  40  60  30  10
Brownwood   84  72  88  71 /  20  50  10  10
Sweetwater  90  70  87  71 /  10  30  30  10
Ozona       87  69  86  69 /  20  50  50  30
Brady       82  70  85  70 /  40  50  30  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...50