Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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287 FXUS64 KSJT 181952 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 252 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 As of the 2 PM hour low level stratus has scattered out across most of the area. South-southeast winds, however, have remained quite gusty this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 mph earlier at Abilene. The gusty conditions will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Low level moisture will continue advecting into the area overnight resulting in another round of low cloud development. Meanwhile, we continue to watch the potential tropical system down in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms spreading inland across the middle and lower Texas coast on Wednesday, with this activity spreading westward to the I-35 corridor by the afternoon. CAMs keep most of our area dry through the much of the day, with some scattered showers and storms perhaps moving into our southeastern counties by the mid-late afternoon. Will keep 40-50% PoPs confined to that area, with lesser PoPs back to the west from San Angelo to Abilene. Cloud cover for most of the day will keep our temperatures down in the middle 80s to lower 90s.
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&& .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The tropical disturbance in the western Gulf is forecast to become Tropical Storm Alberto later today and track into northern Mexico. The track would take the heaviest rainfall into northern Mexico and South Texas, which would keep the bulk of rainfall south West Central Texas. Still, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday, with the highest chances across our southern counties. Given the farther south track into northern Mexico, rain amounts across West Central Texas are looking lower than previously forecast. Rainfall amounts will be higher along I-10, in the 3/4 to 1 inch range, with amounts across the Big Country forecast to generally remain below 1/4 inch. The increased cloud cover will result in cooler temperatures. Highs on Thursday will be in the 80s with highs on Friday in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Expect a general increase in temperatures this weekend into the start of next week, with drier conditions. Highs Saturday will be back in the low to mid 90s, with highs Sunday in the mid 90s to near 100. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Ceilings have lifted to VFR at the terminals early this afternoon. Low level stratus will spread across the area overnight and Wednesday morning resulting in another round of MVFR cigs. South- southeast winds will remain gusty, with gusts of 25-32 knots at KSJT and KABI through the evening hours. Finally, light showers may begin to spread across the area on Wednesday most likely after 18Z so will not mention SHRA in this TAF package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 87 70 86 / 0 20 30 30 San Angelo 72 89 72 87 / 0 20 50 40 Junction 72 84 72 86 / 0 40 60 40 Brownwood 71 84 72 86 / 0 20 50 20 Sweetwater 71 90 70 86 / 0 10 30 40 Ozona 71 87 69 83 / 0 20 50 60 Brady 71 82 70 84 / 0 40 50 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...42