-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
361
FXUS62 KTAE 150112
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
912 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 912 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

No significant updates were required in the forecast this
evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Hot and mostly dry weather expected through the weekend with
widespread 90s (isolated 100) and triple-digit heat indices
forecast.

Warm and muggy weather prevails next week with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms initially confined closer to the coast,
then having better coverage inland late in the period.

Hazardous marine conditions are likely to begin as soon as
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to hold over the region on
Saturday, with an upper level high building in from the west. This
will lead to an unseasonably warm day on Saturday with high
temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 90s, with some areas
topping out near 100. The Heat Index temperatures, the feels like
temperature, will be hot too and range from about 100-107 degrees.
High pressure should suppress any shower or thunderstorm
development, but there`s a possibility the seabreeze might be able
to help develop a few isolated storms along the FL coast. Outside
of that, mainly dry weather is in store for the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A strong mid-upper ridge gradually treks across the SE US into
early next week, thus keeping unseasonably hot weather in place.
The uptick in moisture via SE flow from the Bermuda High increases
cloud cover/rain chances and decreases our air temperatures to
the 90s on Sunday. However, the higher humidity compared to
Saturday should yield triple-digit heat indices ranging from about
101-106 degrees. Although these values fall short of our local
advisory criteria of at least 108, sensitive groups are still
vulnerable to such conditions. Muggy overnight lows in the mid 70s
won`t provide much heat relief, but afternoon thunderstorms may,
for which the best potential is from roughly the I-10 corridor,
southward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The aforementioned ridge pivots NE, then anchors itself over the
Mid- Atlantic states with an extensive upstream upper trough
setting up across the Western US and a tropical disturbance likely
brewing in the Bay of Campeche to start the long-term period.
This synoptic pattern ushers a robust easterly flow regime as the
regional pressure gradient tightens in addition to a long-fetch
"conveyor belt" of tropical moisture surging towards the Northern
Gulf Coast.

As a result, we are looking at a heterogeneous distribution of
rain chances from north to south for much of the coming week at
this time. The greatest potential at this time is along/south of
the coast where the greatest moisture is expected to reside,
though trends may change depending on how the atmosphere evolves.
By Thursday, higher PoPs are painted northward as deeper moisture
attempts to spread more inland off the Gulf while the Atlantic
seabreeze gets going.

While conditions will be warm and muggy, high temperatures trend
more to the low/mid 90s given the increased cloud cover. Low to
mid 70s hold for overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Calm winds and clear skies are expected for all terminals during
the overnight hours. VFR cigs are forecast to prevail as high
pressure will prevent showers and thunderstorms from developing
during the day; however a pop-up shower/thunderstorm could form
along the afternoon seabreeze but, confidence at the moment is
low. Although, we can still expect a wind shift affecting the ECP
and TLH terminals with the afternoon seabreeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The prevalence of tropical moisture over the Gulf keeps daily
chances for thunderstorms in the forecast. Southeast winds
generally 10 knots or less prevail through the weekend before
becoming easterly. By early next week, a tightening pressure
gradient between the Bermuda High and tropical disturbance over
the Bay of Campeche initially brings cautionary conditions to our
waters with advisory level and winds and seas likely on Tuesday,
especially west of Ochlockonee River.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The main fire weather concerns through this coming Monday are
high dispersions across the region. Outside of that, there will
also be unseasonably hot temperatures over the weekend where highs
peak in the mid to upper 90s, perhaps even making it to 100 on
Saturday. Heat Index values, the feels like temperature, will
range from 100 to 107 degrees. High pressure should keep us dry
Saturday, with a moisture surge returning Sunday and into early
next week. This should bring typical summertime afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Prospects for significant flooding over the next several days
still appear minimal. Mostly dry weather is forecast through
tomorrow before rain chances modestly increase on Sunday. Of
course, localized runoff issues are always possible from strong
and/or slow- moving thunderstorms, especially in urban/low-
lying/poor-drainage areas. The axis of greatest precipitation aims
to remain just offshore and focus more over the Northern Gulf
coast next week. In terms of rivers, all are below action stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   74  98  75  96 /   0  20  10  40
Panama City   76  94  77  90 /   0  20  20  50
Dothan        73  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  40
Albany        73  98  75  97 /   0  10  10  30
Valdosta      71  99  74  97 /   0  10  10  30
Cross City    71  97  73  95 /  10  30  20  40
Apalachicola  77  90  79  87 /   0  20  20  40
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...IG3