Area Forecast Discussion
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276 FXUS62 KTAE 230807 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 407 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... .NEAR TERM...
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(Today and tonight) Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The main stories for today are dangerous heat (by late June standards) and a continued high risk of rip currents: Heat - A strong ridge of high pressure over the region will suppress most convection this afternoon outside of isolated seabreeze activity along the eastern I-10 corridor. As a result, mostly sunny skies are expected. Factoring in 500-mb heights in the 594-592 dm range, 850- mb temperatures about 19-20C, and a deep mixed layer yields a dangerously hot day. The former are above the KTLH daily 90th percentile, per SPC sounding climatology. Forecast high temperatures are widespread upper 90s to 100 degrees away from the immediate coast with peak heat indices up to 112 in much of our FL counties. The existing Heat Advisory has been expanded in area to now include the remainder of the Panhandle + Lafayette County...in effect from 10AM CT/11AM ET to 7PM CT/8PM ET. Overnight lows in the mid 70s won`t provide much relief. Please practice appropriate heat safety, e.g., www.weather.gov/heatsafety. Know your heat risk as well by checking out www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk. Rip currents - Persistent long-period southerly swells will make for a continued high risk of rip currents at all local beaches today and into early next week. We urge all beachgoers to heed beach flags, swim near a lifeguard, and take the risks seriously. If double-red flags are flying, the beach is open, but water is closed to the public. As a reminder, rip currents are the #1 weather-related killer at the beaches along the Northern Gulf Coast. More information can be found at www.weather.gov/tae/ripcurrentawareness.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Light northwesterly flow is expected aloft through the short term period with a ridge centered to the west still nosing over the area. This will keep temperatures quite hot both Monday and Tuesday, with highs forecast in the mid 90s near the coast and the upper 90s to low 100s inland both afternoons. Opted to go a little on the higher side of guidance for the high temperatures due to observed temps yesterday and in previous similar setups running a few degrees higher than forecast. Max heat indices in the afternoons are forecast to climb into the 105-113 degree range, with the highest values expected across the Florida zones where moisture is higher. If these values hold, expect heat advisories over at least part of the area both days. Lows are also forecast to be quite warm, ranging in the mid to upper 70s. With troughing beginning to take hold over the eastern CONUS early next week along with ample moisture, rain chances are forecast to return on Monday before increasing a bit Tuesday. NBM is quite excited with fairly high PoPs, particularly on Tuesday. While we kept some PoPs in place, the forecast is a fair bit lower than the NBM due to uncertainty with how much convection we`ll actually get if the influence of the ridging nosing over from the west remains in place. Plus, it seems like NBM has been overdoing PoPs a lot over the last couple of months. If it ends up actually being correct, high temps will likely end up being a bit lower as well.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Pretty much the same pattern is expected through the rest of the week with troughing over the eastern CONUS and southwesterly to westerly flow at the surface. Hot temperatures continue with daily showers and thunderstorms forecast. Left high temperatures alone for the most part due to the retreat of the mid level ridge by Wednesday. However, also opted to lower PoPs a bit from what NBM had pretty much everyday due to the observed high bias of late. Still, scattered to even widespread showers and storms will still be possible each day. While less of a slam dunk as Sunday through Tuesday, heat advisory conditions will still be possible each afternoon, particularly if PoPs trend drier than currently forecast.
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&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Ongoing VFR conds prevail thru the TAF period. Light west winds persist, though FL terminals get a SW shift from the aftn seabreeze. Thunder is possible invof of TLH/VLD between 18Z & 0Z. Isolated convection may encroach on ECP during that window, but confidence is not high enough to acct for attm. && .MARINE...
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Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Mainly southwesterly winds should hold through Monday before teetering between westerly and southwesterly afterwards. Seas will generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with the 3 foot waves being favored west of Apalachicola. However, long-period swells will continue through the period as another disturbance develops in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Nightly chances of showers and storms will be possible over the waters with the highest chances east of Apalachicola.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The main fire concerns over the next 3 days are dangerous heat conditions, high afternoon dispersions mainly north of the FL state line, and increased potential for thunderstorms to start the work week. For today, only isolated convection is forecast along the I-10 corridor on the Eastern FL Big Bend side while light west winds become more southwesterly in the afternoon, courtesy of the seabreeze. Inland temperatures likely peak to at or near 100 degrees with peak heat indices up to 112 in most of our FL counties where a Heat Advisory is in effect. Similarly hot weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, but we also see an uptick in rain chances with the approach of a sagging front from the north.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Moisture will continue to infiltrate the region as southwesterly flow ushers into the region. A large trough will sit over the east, while high pressure retrogrades west. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible, some of which could produce heavy rain. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is expected over the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee 98 75 99 77 / 30 0 40 20 Panama City 94 78 93 79 / 10 0 30 20 Dothan 99 75 98 76 / 10 0 30 10 Albany 100 74 99 76 / 10 0 30 20 Valdosta 100 74 100 76 / 20 10 40 20 Cross City 95 75 95 76 / 30 10 40 20 Apalachicola 92 78 91 79 / 10 0 30 20
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112- 114-115-118-127. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...IG3 SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...KR