Area Forecast Discussion
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681 FXUS62 KTAE 182321 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 721 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The upper level high will build over the U.S. Mid Atlantic region, while surface high pressure holds just to the northeast. This will allow dry air to be ushered into the region, which combined with low pressure over the southwest, will lead to a tightening pressure gradient. This will lead to unseasonably strong easterly winds. The weather pattern set up should suppress shower and thunderstorm through the rest of today and into tomorrow, though there could be a few isolated showers or thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure will hold along with strong easterly flow during this time frame. A easterly wave from the Atlantic will begin to creep towards the region, ushering in some moisture. This will increase precip chances, particularly for the FL counties; however, confidence is still fairly low with 15-30% north of I-10 into southern GA and 30-45% south of I-10. Highs for Thu will be in the low 90s and then fall into the upper 60s to low 70s Thu night. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure will sag a bit to the south during this period and weaken, allowing for a more typical summer like pattern. The easterly wave in the Atlantic, currently several hundred miles east of the Bahamas will, will drift towards the southeast US coast. This will bring increased showers and thunderstorms to the region for the weekend. Broad high pressure should settle just off the Atlantic extending back into the FL peninsula. This will lead to southeasterly flow and bring us start steering us back to our typical summertime days with increasing chances showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. However, breezy conditions are also expected with easterly wind generally sustained between 10 and 15 knots through the period. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected during the day on Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The main update to the forecast package is the introduction of a Gale Warning this evening through mid Wednesday morning as frequent gale force gusts are expected for the majority of the Gulf waters. Strong easterly breezes and rough seas will then continue over the northeast Gulf through Friday morning, thanks to a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure off the New England coast and a developing tropical cyclone over the Southwest Gulf. Winds will start to decrease on Friday, as the high pressure center to our northeast moves closer to Bermuda and extends a ridge axis across the Southeast States. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Our weather will generally be dominated by high pressure over the next few days; however, the pressure gradient over us will tighten due to low pressure over the Bay of Campeche developing. This will lead to unseasonably strong breezes through the week, deep mixing, and high dispersions through at least Thursday. Mainly dry weather should supress shower and thunderstorms each afternoon, though a few rogue showers or storms could pop up. The pattern may change to a wetter one late in the week, but confidence is low on timing for this. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Significant or widespread flooding is not expected through this weekend. Little, if any, rain is expected through Thursday. Rain chances will increase some starting Friday, but rainfall should not be hydrologically significant. By Monday and Tuesday of next week, ensemble mean solutions show 1000-700 mb flow becoming southerly, pumping up a more richly moist maritime tropical air mass. With more moisture to work with, rainfall loading beneath storms will increase, as steering flow weakens and storm motions slow down. Therefore, there is increasing potential for isolated flash flooding starting early next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee 93 74 92 74 / 10 0 10 10 Panama City 92 77 92 75 / 0 20 30 10 Dothan 90 73 90 71 / 10 0 0 10 Albany 91 72 91 70 / 10 0 0 10 Valdosta 92 72 91 72 / 10 10 20 10 Cross City 93 74 93 72 / 10 0 40 20 Apalachicola 88 79 89 77 / 10 50 40 20
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-750-765. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for GMZ752-755-770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday to 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ Thursday for GMZ752-755-770-772-775. Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ752- 755-770-772-775.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...DVD MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...AH