-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
019
FXUS62 KTAE 121042
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
642 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 441 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The forecast area is currently underneath a strong moisture
gradient, with Precipitable Water (PW) values ranging from a dry
1 inch north of Dothan to a moist 1.8 inches over the Lower
Suwannee Valley. Meanwhile, there is a large pool of 1.8-2 inch PW
values over northeast FL near JAX. So there is sufficient
moisture to support afternoon thunderstorm development over our
Florida and far south Georgia counties. In fact, our Eastern Time
Zone counties should see more of a turn to easterly 1000-700 mb
flow this afternoon, so the reservoir of richer moisture near JAX could
spread across more of south Georgia late this afternoon into this
evening. The northernmost storms will be most prone to gusty
winds and perhaps an isolated damaging wind gust, due to gust-
inducing dry air entrainment near the interface with drier air to
the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 441 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A north-south moisture gradient will continue over the region on
Thursday. Over our FL counties, there will be sufficient moisture
to support afternoon thunderstorm development, especially where
the seabreeze front helps to focus development. In addition, the
upper trough currently over eastern Texas will traverse the region
on Thursday, which could aid slightly in storm development.
Meanwhile north of a Dothan- Camilla- Tifton line, the air mass
will likely be too dry to support afternoon convection.

On Friday and Saturday, a strong 500 mb high will move from the
Ark-La-Tex region across the Tennessee Valley. The resulting
drying and warming aloft will be most pronounced over our AL/GA
counties but will be felt in our FL counties as well. Plus, a
strengthening of drier northeasterly 1000-700 mb flow will
ultimately shave back the northern extent of afternoon
thunderstorm development, becoming even more confined to the most
favorable seabreeze development areas and where richer moisture
persists over the Lower Suwannee Valley. Given the prevailing
low-level northeast flow, the seabreeze should be pinned pretty
close to the coast on Friday and Saturday.

The passage of a heat dome across the Southeast States will also
pump up temperatures, most notably on Friday and Saturday. Inland
high temperatures will reach the upper 90s on a widespread basis,
with a few locations such as Albany forecast to reach 100+.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 441 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The 500 mb high that passes just north of the region on Friday and
Saturday will park itself along the Southeast Atlantic coast and
over/east of the FL Peninsula from Sunday through Tuesday,
becoming more north-south oriented. It will remain close enough to
keep temperatures running above normal. In all likelihood, it will
also remain close enough to hold afternoon thunderstorm coverage
in scattered ranges, though a turn to southeast flow will expand
those thunderstorm chances well north of the Florida state line.
The southeast flow will bring dewpoints more solidly into the
muggy 70s for inland areas.

If the mid-level ridge sets up a little further east than
forecast, then we would need to watch for heavy rain in the
Panhandle. This alternative scenario would put the Panhandle
closer to a fire hose of tropical moisture that is likely to take
shape in the northeast quadrant of a deepening surface trough or
low in the western or southwestern Gulf. For now, this idea is
only supported by a few GEFS ensemble members, but even a low
probability of impactful rain early next week bears watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Localized LIFR conditions at VLD, and possibly ABY, this morning
associated with stratus will begin scour out around 13 with VFR
conditions returning. VFR conditions will then prevail through
most of the TAF period with the only aviation concerns being
brief MVFR/IFR conditions in any thunderstorms that form this
afternoon. Best chance for storms is at VLD and TLH. Late in the
TAF period early Wednesday morning another round of LIFR/IFR
stratus could move in from the east, like we saw this morning.
This would mostly affect ABY and VLD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 441 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

At 3 am EDT, Buoy 42036 was observing 4-foot waves with a dominant
period of 8 seconds, likely originating from winds around a low
pressure center off the coast of Tampa Bay on Tuesday evening.

Light and gentle breezes will prevail over the northeast Gulf
through Saturday, but stronger southeast breezes over the distant
southeast Gulf will keep seas propped up into the the 2 to 3 foot
range from Thursday through Saturday. Southeast breezes will
freshen over the waters on Sunday, with a corresponding increase
in seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 441 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Above normal temperatures will prevail through this weekend, and a
dry air mass will hang on along and north of the I-10 corridor as
well. June sunshine will support a deeply mixed atmosphere each
afternoon. Meanwhile, a slight increase in transport winds over
the course of Thursday and Friday will lead to an increase in
inland coverage of high dispersions each afternoon. Otherwise,
afternoon thunderstorms will mainly be confined to our Florida and
far south Georgia districts through Friday, with gusty and erratic
winds near storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 441 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along the sea
breeze this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, with lesser coverage
on Friday and Saturday. Areas underneath these storms could
experience short-lived and localized flooding due to intense
instantaneous rainfall rates. However, widespread rainfall amounts
will be low.

Looking into next week, model consensus is to keep tropical
moisture and hydrologically significant rainfall west --- perhaps
well west --- of the forecast area. However, there continue to be
a few outlier GEFS and GEPS ensemble members with hydrologically
significant rainfall close to the Panhandle coast early next week
and beyond. Given the outlier status of those members, the
expectation at this time is that there will be no widespread
flooding issues for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  73  94  73 /  50  50  50  10
Panama City   93  76  92  75 /  30  20  60  20
Dothan        93  73  92  72 /  20  20  30  10
Albany        93  73  94  71 /  20  30  20   0
Valdosta      93  73  94  70 /  40  30  40  10
Cross City    94  72  92  70 /  70  60  70  40
Apalachicola  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from noon CDT today through late Thursday
     night for FLZ108-112.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner