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048
FXUS62 KTAE 212256
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
656 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Invest 92L off the NE FL and SE GA coast will move toward the coast
tonight. The dry air though has held tough today with only cumulus
development so far. Have lowered rain chances a good bit for the
rest of the afternoon into the evening to account for this extra dry
air. Really the only place that has a shot at rain this afternoon
and tonight appears to be the southeast Big Bend. Lows tonight will
be in the lower to middle 70s.

For Saturday, a mid-level high will be centered over the north
central Gulf Coast with some increasing moisture from Invest 92L
sneaking into our eastern counties. Have lowered rain chances from
NBM by a good bit, however, as it`s uncertain where the mid-level
high sets up, keeping a lid on rain chances. However, given just a
little bit of deep-layer shear around 15-20 kt in the afternoon and
some mid-level dry air, the stronger storms may have an opportunity
of producing some gusty winds. Highs will have a gradient from the
lower 90s over the eastern areas to the middle to upper 90s
elsewhere. Heat index values will be around 100 to 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Most recent guidance combined with mid-level water vapor
satellite imagery suggests that the progression of AL92 may not
penetrate as far westward as was initially forecast across the
tri- state area. With this forecast trend, it appears that PoPs
will generally only remain elevated along the immediate I-75
corridor and portions of the SE Big Bend of Florida on Sunday.
While forecast PWATs are not expected to increase quite as high
across the region through the weekend as initially was
anticipated, moisture will still continue to gradually increase as
an upper level trough and associated frontal system progresses
across the north eastern conus this weekend.

Part of the reason AL92 is struggling to progress westward into
the area, is the southward progression of a 500mb ridge into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, which is imposing a northwestward
mid level flow across the tropical wave. This mid/upper level
ridge will also bring very warm temperatures to the area, with
high temperatures surging into the upper 90s to near 100 for many.
Heat index values will not quite reach advisory levels, but expect
to see values around 102-105 across the region Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The mid/upper level ridge will continue to maintain its hold over
the southern conus through the early portion of the work week as
upper level troughing only just starts to dig south across the
Northeast on Monday. This will lead to hot temperatures areawide
to continue through Wednesday, with highs climbing to the upper
90s to near 100 each day. Tuesday`s heat index values will flirt
with advisory level criteria across the Florida Panhandle and Big
Bend as values surge into the 108-110 range.

The upper level trough across the Northeast Monday is expected to
advect north increased moisture from the Gulf along an associated
frontal boundary. PWATs are currently forecast to increase to
around 1.8-2.0 inches, which will help fuel seabreeze
thunderstorms each day starting Monday through the end of the
work week. These storms look to have the highest chances of
development across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where PWATS
are forecast to be the highest across the region.

A shortwave trough looks to approach the region Wednesday, and
could become quasi-stationary across the northern Gulf through the
end of the work week, which will help fuel daily thunderstorm
chances as well. This shortwave will also aid in reducing daily
high temperatures across the region as lower 500mb heights help
quell the dominant mid/upper level ridge that will be present
earlier in the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Winds will be light to calm during the overnight hours, then
becoming northeast. The winds will be somewhat variable during the
afternoon for the TLH, VLD, and ECP terminals then becoming
moreso southwest during the late afternoon hours. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the afternoon hours
Saturday affecting the VLD terminal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Nightly chances of showers and storms are possible over the
waters primarily east of the mouth of the Apalachicola river.
Calming winds at around 5-10 knots will veer around from the
northeast to the southeast this weekend, then out of the west to
southwest next week. Seas will also begin to subside with the
decrease in winds to 2 to 3 feet this weekend, and into next
week. However, long-period swells will continue through the
period as another disturbance develops in the Bay of Campeche
this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Transport winds will generally be out of the west to southwest
around 10 to 15 mph. This combined with high mixing heights will
lead to good to excellent dispersions each day with high dispersions
possible Sunday into Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon with gusty winds and frequent
lightning. Minimum RH values each day will fall into the mid-30s to
lower 40s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Moisture will start to gradually increase across the region the
next several days (especially across the Florida Panhandle and Big
Bend). This will initially be kicked off by a westward propagating
tropical disturbance that is currently 100 miles off the coast of
Jacksonville Florida. While recent model guidance does not have
this disturbance pushing as far west towards the tri-state area,
moisture is still expected to increase gradually through the
weekend and into next week as an upper level trough and associated
frontal system pulls moisture northward from the Gulf and western
Caribbean into the region. This will generally bring the
possibility for some locally heavy rainfall and a slightly more
active weather pattern for the region next week. Fortunately there
are no flooding concerns at this time given the recent dry
conditions. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is
expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  95  76  97 /  10  30  10  50
Panama City   76  94  78  92 /  10  20   0  20
Dothan        72  95  74  98 /   0  10  10  20
Albany        74  94  74  99 /   0  20  20  30
Valdosta      74  93  75  97 /  20  50  30  50
Cross City    75  93  75  94 /  30  50  30  60
Apalachicola  78  90  79  92 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Bunker