-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
986
FXUS62 KTAE 181751
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
151 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

No major changes to the forecast this morning, outside of the
Dense Fog Advisory that was issued earlier today and has since
expired. Satellite imagery still shows some lingering stratus over
southeast AL and southwest GA, while also depicting convective
clouds over the FL Panhandle and southern I-75 corridor in GA.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A stationary surface boundary still lingers across the forecast
area. Weak convergence, weak upper level vort maxima, and deep
moisture will aid in the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms today along a corridor from the Florida panhandle
eastward into the big bend and portions of south-central Georgia.
Isolated heavy rainfall is possible with slow moving storms today
in this corridor.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
ranging from the upper 60s across the northern counties to the low
to mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The upper level trough will continue to lift north through the
day. North/northwest flow will be predominant and drier air will
filter in as a frontal boundary moves through on Thursday.
Isolated rain chances are possible along and ahead of the front.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 80s/low 90s with
morning lows in the upper 60s/low 70s. Winds will begin to shift
to northeast during the day on Friday, but will remain light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

An upper level ridge will be building in from the west, with
northerly flow aloft and easterly flow at the surface. These
synoptic conditions will keep our region dry and temperatures
steady in the upper 80s/low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 60s/low 70s.

For the extended forecast, global models are suggesting possible
tropical development in the Western Caribbean; yet, it is too soon
to determine any possible track or intensity as models and
ensembles indicate high uncertainty at this time. The NHC does
have a tropical outlook area of development with an area of low
pressure having a 20% chance of development over the next seven
days. We will continue to monitor. Now would be a good time to
check up on your hurricane kits.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For this afternoon and evening, brief MVFR in TSRA at TLH
and VLD, with VCTS at ECP. Thunder should end 22Z-00Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions.

For late tonight and Thursday morning, the main concern will
be the development of fog, generally in the 09Z-14Z time
frame. Confidence in fog is highest at ABY and VLD, with a
couple hours of LIFR. Sufficient confidence for a couple
hours of MVFR at DHN and TLH. Confidence lower regarding
the category restrictions. Meanwhile, don`t expect fog at
ECP with this forecast, so maintained VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Light and variable winds anticipated through much of the week
with rain chances decreasing after today. East and northeasterly
flow is reestablished during the weekend and could lead to
cautionary conditions and higher seas during the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for the next
few days with a chance of showers and thunderstorms along the
I-10 corridor today. Drier conditions are expected for the
remainder of the week. Relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels, and fuels are currently moist from recent
rainfall.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Rain chances are light to minimal following today through the
next several days as high pressure will expand over the region.
There are no river flooding concerns through the rest of this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  71  89  70 /  60   0  10   0
Panama City   85  74  88  72 /  40   0   0   0
Dothan        87  70  89  70 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        87  69  87  69 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      85  70  88  69 /  60   0   0   0
Cross City    88  72  90  70 /  50  10  20   0
Apalachicola  85  74  86  74 /  50   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery