-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
833
FXUS62 KTAE 171751
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Shortwave energy acting on a stationary boundary near the Emerald
Coast was producing showers with occasional thunder this morning.
Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is under a small bubble of
high pressure between the boundary and low pressure situated over
the Carolinas. GOES Blended Total Precipitable Water ranged from
1.3" in Ben Hill County to 1.8" along the Emerald Coast.

Forecast rationale from the near term section below remains the
same. The axis of highest PoPs is in FL Panhandle, and this could
shift a little further northeast late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A stationary boundary located in our Gulf waters will move slowly
inland today as a weak upper level vort max traverses the area.
Deep moisture will focus across the Florida panhandle with
precipitable water values in the 1.8-2 inch range. These features
are expected to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon, primarily stretching across the Florida
panhandle. Storms will be capable of localized heavy rain given
the high precipitable water values, and a marginal risk of flash
flooding remains across the Florida panhandle given the current
saturated soils. Storms will weaken after sunset.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
ranging from the mid 60s across the northern counties to the low
to mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The upper level low that absorbed the remnants of PTC8 will be
lifting north for the short term. As this occurs, we can expect
light westerly winds at the surface and westerly/northwesterly
winds aloft. PoPs chances for Wednesday will likely be constrained
to the FL Panhandle with a 30%-40% chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The northwesterly flow will allow for drier air to
filter in following a "cool" front Thursday morning, clearing away
the clouds and lowering rain chances. We can also expect a
warming in temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.
Overnight lows will be in upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The upper level troughing will be lifting to the north as an
upper level ridge will start to build in from the west. Expect
northerly flow aloft, and surface winds becoming easterly through
the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s with a
possible backdoor cold front bringing temperatures back to the
mid-80s at the end of the long term. Overnight lows will be in the
low 70s. PoPs chances for the long term are minimal, and any rain
is expected to remain over the waters.

For the extended forecast, global models are spinning things up
in the Caribbean; yet, it is way too soon to determine any
possible tropical development. However, we will be monitoring
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A warm front lifts slowly northward across the terminals this
evening. This will promote an increase in low clouds and fog
by late tonight, with the highest confidence in restrictions
developing at DHN and VLD, with IFR and LIFR indicated in the
TAFs, respectively on Wednesday morning; This could go lower
given there is uncertainty. Confidence lower in restrictions
at ABY, ECP and TLH, but cannot be ruled out; for now, have a
TEMPO group with MVFR at ABY, and kept ECP and TLH VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Light and variable winds anticipated through much of the week
with rain chances decreasing after Wednesday. East and
northeasterly flow is reestablished during the weekend and this
could lead to cautionary conditions and higher seas during the
overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with recent
wetting rains and a moist airmass in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Rain chances persist for a couple of more days, and the WPC has
highlighted the FL Panhandle in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall for Tuesday. The ground is saturated and will
not take much to produce runoff and localized flash flooding. A
pattern change is expected by Thursday which will reduce rain
chances and allow for some drying out.

We have a few rivers in Action Stage, and local streams may rise
from any of the heavier showers/storms. Overall, rivers are not
expected to reach Flood stage through the next 7 to 10 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee   86  70  87  70 /  50  10  50   0
Panama City   85  73  86  73 /  60  30  30   0
Dothan        84  69  86  68 /  30  10  20   0
Albany        85  69  86  69 /  10  10  20   0
Valdosta      86  70  88  69 /  20  10  50   0
Cross City    88  71  90  72 /  30  10  30   0
Apalachicola  83  74  84  73 /  50  20  30  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery