-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
068
FXUS62 KTAE 202332
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
732 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

An easterly tropical wave is expected to continue to push east into
north Florida overnight tonight. While no major tropical impacts are
expected across the region, the increasing moisture throughout the
day on Friday across the region will lead to higher chances for
showers and thunderstorms. This will especially be true across the I-
75 corridor and the SE Big Bend where PWATs will increase to around
1.8-2.00 inches. For areas with the highest rain chances, expect
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 inches or less primarily east of
the Flint and Apalachicola river basins. Rain chances look to drop
off the further west into the forecast area. Expect near zero rain
chances for areas primarily west of the Flint and Apalachicola river
basins. DCAPE values will be decreasing with the moisture surge into
the region on Friday; however, showers/thunderstorms that develop
along that DCAPE gradient through the afternoon hours could produce
a few strong wind gusts. Overall, expect another day of mostly
cloudy conditions across the region, with high temperatures climbing
into the low to mid 90s through the afternoon. With clear skies and
dry air pushing into the region this afternoon and tonight, expect
overnight lows to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A weak mid-level high will slide westward, and our surface high
pressure will slide eastward. This will result in generally north to
northwest flow aloft with south to southeast flow in the low levels
with an overall increase in moisture. PWATs will climb to about 1.8
to 2.0 inches, which could result in some locally heavy downpours in
the stronger storms both Saturday and Sunday. The highest rain
chances will generally be in the Big Bend and south central Georgia
where there is less influence from the mid-level high. Outside of
storms, it will be quite hot and muggy with highs in the mid-90s and
lows in the mid-70s. Heat index values of 102 to 107 are possible
both afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Mid to upper level ridging moves off to our west and we end up in
northwesterly flow Monday through Wednesday as troughing starts to
take shape over the eastern US. Given the amount of moisture and a
weak frontal boundary trying to sink into the Southeast US, but
won`t quite make it. However, our low-level flow will be out of the
south to southwest during this time, providing plenty of moisture
for daily showers and storms. This will keep our pattern rather
unsettled into next week, and we`ll need to monitor if there are
any shortwaves that are embedded within the northwesterly flow
that may look troublesome. Rain chances will stay elevated through
the period. Outside of storms, highs will still be quite warm,
generally in the mid-90s. Lows will be in the middle to upper 70s.
Heat index values will be around 102 to 109 each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with northeast
to east winds continuing at all TAF sites. A weak tropical
disturbance approaches the region from the east on Friday and it
will bring increasing clouds and an increased chance for showers
and storms, mostly at VLD put possibly extending as far west as
ABY/TLH on Friday. VFR conditions should prevail through these
showers but brief MVFR/IFR conditions are a possibility in the
heavier showers/storms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The pressure gradient between the high to our north and Tropical
Depression Alberto will quickly weaken, which should finally end
our stretch of advisory conditions. Nightly chances of showers and
storms are possible over the waters. Winds will veer around from
the northeast to the southeast this weekend, then out of the west
to southwest next week. Seas will also begin to subside to 2 to 3
feet this weekend into next week. However, long-period swells will
continue through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Northeasterly transport winds around 15-20 mph combined with mixing
heights around 5000-6500 ft will lead to high dispersions areawide
on Friday. While dry air is expected to push into the region
overnight tonight, another slug of moisture from the east is
forecast to push into the region during the early afternoon hours on
Friday. This will keep minimum RH values in the upper 50s to low 60s
along the I-75 corridor and SE Big Bend of Florida, and upper 30s to
mid 40s for the remainder of the forecast area. Overall, even though
we have had dry conditions the last couple of weeks, the only fire
weather concerns on Friday will be high dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Moisture will gradually increase through the next several days. As a
tropical disturbance moves onshore along the northeast FL and
southeast GA, we`ll see an uptick in showers and storms, which may
produce locally heavy downpours, mainly close to the I-75 corridor
and Suwannee River. But, this rain would be beneficial. Next week,
some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as the pattern
remains rather active. But, at this time, widespread flash flood or
river flood concerns remain low.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  71  93  75 /  40   0  60  30
Panama City   90  73  92  77 /  60  20  20  20
Dothan        91  70  93  73 /  20   0   0  10
Albany        93  69  93  74 /  10   0  20  10
Valdosta      91  70  93  74 /  20   0  60  30
Cross City    92  72  92  73 /  40  20  80  30
Apalachicola  86  76  89  77 /  50  10  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Young