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072
FXUS62 KTBW 241828
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
228 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Storms are starting to form along the coast line currently on both
coastlines. These showers will start to move inland over the next
few hours. As we get into the evening hours these storms should
start to head back west as they dissipate. Once again our main
concern today will be the slow motion of the storms and the
possibility of some localized flooding.

We will have about the same conditions set up for our Tuesday.
However the ridge will start to shift south on Wednesday bringing us
a more southwest flow across the areas. This will push most of the
shower activity inland and towards the east coast of Florida. These
should be the drier days along the West Coast of Florida.

As we look into the weekend the ridge start to move north. This will
give us more neutral flow on Saturday giving us shower coverage
very similiar to what we just saw last weekend. By Sunday the
ridge should be to our north and giving us a more East to
Northeast flow. This flow regime typically gives us less storm
coverage but the storms that do form tend to be near the west
coast.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions with winds generally below 10 knots outside of
thunderstorms through the period. Once again VCTS will be possible
for all terminals this afternoon and evening with better chances
to see storms on station in SW FL where a TEMPO line was added.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Our southerly winds that we have been experiencing over
the weekend and today will start to shift westerly overnight and
remain that way through Thursday. Winds speeds will generally
stay at or below 10 knots. The main marine hazard through the
period will be overnight and early morning showers and
thunderstorms that should form along the land breeze.
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through
the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  90  78  91  79 /  50  50  70  40
FMY  90  75  90  78 /  80  50  70  30
GIF  94  76  94  76 /  60  50  70  30
SRQ  90  77  90  78 /  60  40  70  40
BKV  92  74  92  74 /  50  40  70  40
SPG  91  80  90  82 /  60  50  60  50
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana