-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
916
FXUS62 KTBW 241337
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
937 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 936 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Most of the showers in the Gulf of Mexico this morning has
dissipated and we will be watching for our first sign of
convection along the west coast of Florida early in the afternoon.
Hi-Res models are showing a little less coverage today however
storms that do form will be slow moving with localized flooding
possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024
A strong U/L ridge over the southern plains will extend over the
Florida peninsula through Tuesday, but will slowly retrograde
toward the desert southwest. By Wednesday, a weakness in the
subtropical ridge will allow a weak U/L trough to sink south over
the Florida peninsula Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and
Friday night, a digging S/W disturbance will push across the
northern plains inducing ridging downstream across the southern
Mississippi river valley and southeast U.S., including Florida.
This will cause the trough to fill, with the building U/L ridge
holding over the forecast area through the weekend.

At the surface, bit of a transition day today as a weakening
frontal boundary stalls across north Florida. This will suppress
the surface ridge axis south of the forecast area with westerly
flow developing. This pattern promotes scattered late
night/morning showers and thunderstorms over the near shore
waters advecting locally onshore the coastal counties, spreading
inland and increasing in areal coverage during the afternoon
hours. This pattern is expected to hold through the upcoming week.

Highly uncertain long range outlook as pattern change possible
next weekend as broad easterly flow may develop. This would shift
highest pops to the coastal counties along the west coast sea
breeze boundary during the late afternoon/early evening hours.
However, building U/L ridge over the region may advect drier air
aloft across the forecast area which combined with increasing
large scale subsidence would suppress pops.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 806 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions with winds generally below 10 knots outside of
thunderstorms through the period. Once again VCTS will be possible
for all terminals this afternoon and evening with better chances
to see storms on station in SW FL where a TEMPO line was added.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Winds and seas expected to remain below SCEC levels through the
week as relatively weak westerly flow will prevail. Main hazard
would be locally gusty winds and rough seas due to thunderstorms,
primarily during the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected through the week as
sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity
values above critical levels each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  79  90  79 /  50  50  70  30
FMY  90  76  90  77 /  80  50  70  30
GIF  94  76  93  76 /  70  50  70  40
SRQ  90  77  90  77 /  60  40  70  30
BKV  93  74  93  75 /  60  40  70  30
SPG  90  80  91  82 /  50  50  70  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana