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672
FXUS65 KTFX 230139
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
739 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and warmer conditions will continue to move into the area
overnight tonight. On Sunday, temperatures will be hot over
portions of Central MT, with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s. A few storms could develop on Sunday afternoon, mainly east
of a line from Havre to Lewistown. It will not be as hot for the
early part of the work week, with the chances for thunderstorms
increasing once again for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...

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Given benign conditions forecast for the overnight into early
Sunday, no mentionable changes were needed this evening. -AM
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&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail this TAF period. Light winds and little in
the way of cloud cover is forecast tonight into Sunday morning.
Thereafter, south to west winds increase and become gusty in the
afternoon Sunday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms on the
eastern plains (KLWT and KHVR). Some of the first density altitude
concerns for the summer arise Sunday afternoon given temperatures
trending above average. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 500 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024/
Tonight through Sunday...The main concern for the rest of this
afternoon is the potential for an isolated thunderstorm on the
east side of the Bears Paw Mountains and then south of Grass
Range. If any storms develop in these areas, they should move off
into eastern/southeastern MT rather quickly by the evening hours.
Otherwise, just expect some passing clouds overnight. On Sunday,
hot temperatures will develop over Central/Southwest MT, with a
few locations near record high. Additionally, gusty west winds
will develop by Sunday afternoon along the Rocky Mountain Front
and in the Cut Bank area. There is only a 10 percent chance for
high winds over the Plains on Sunday afternoon, thus no high wind
statement will be issued at this time. With fuels starting to dry
out, there is some concern for potential fire statements, but
since about half the area is still fairly green, no fire
statements will be issued at this time either. By Sunday
afternoon, a weak upper level disturbance will once again move
through the eastern portions of Central MT. This could result in a
few strong storms, mainly east of a line from Havre to Stanford
during the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday through Tuesday...An upper level ridge will try to build
over MT during this period. This should result in mostly dry
conditions, along with slightly above normal temperatures.

Wednesday through Saturday...The upper level ridge will start to
break down on Wednesday, with a few storms developing by late in
the day over Central/North Central MT. On Thursday, there is the
potential for a more widespread thunderstorm activity, with the
potential for some storms to be on the strong side. The unsettled
weather conditions continue into Friday. It does start to turn
cooler by late in the week, with some locations over North Central
MT having afternoon temperatures close to 10 degrees below normal
on Thursday. The cooler temperatures and shower activity will be
short lived, as drier and warmer will start to move back into
Central MT on Saturday. Brusda
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  91  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  84  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  58  94  58  87 /   0  10   0   0
BZN  53  94  54  88 /   0  10   0  10
WYS  45  83  47  81 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  51  90  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  57  94  55  82 /   0  10   0   0
LWT  54  89  53  79 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls