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258
FXUS65 KTFX 231900
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
100 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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After some near record warmth today, temperatures will cool a few
degrees for Monday and Tuesday before a second peak in
temperatures arrives on Wednesday. Cooler and unsettled weather
arrives for the second half of the week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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Key Points:

-Warm today and Wednesday with many areas reaching the low 90s

-Showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday through Friday

Short term (through Tuesday)... Upper level ridging across the
area is bringing well above average temperatures to North Central
and Southwestern Montana today, with temperatures reaching the low
to mid 80s in some locations as early as 11 am this morning. With
this ridge in place and south westerly flow aloft, temperatures
today will top out in the low to mid 90s, which will challenge and
threaten records in a few locations today, particularly in
Southwestern Montana where the core of the heat will be. At the
same time, winds will be on the increase today as a cold front
approaches and increases the pressure gradient across the area,
resulting in some gusty winds, especially along the Rocky Mountain
Front and across the ridges of Southwestern Montana. While fire
weather is not yet a major concern for our area, it is conceivable
that the increased winds could help to spread any fires that
manage to take hold today. A cold front will push through the area
later this evening and overnight tonight, bringing slightly
cooler, but still above average, temperatures to the area for the
start of the work week. With zonal flow overhead but high pressure
at the surface, expect mostly tranquil conditions for the first
half of the week.

Extended (Wednesday through Saturday)... Transient upper level
ridging will quickly build into the area on Wednesday, which will
result in a return of temperatures near 90 across the lower
elevations. This heat, however, will not last long as a potent
upper level low pressure system barrels its way into the
Northwestern US, bringing moisture, cooler temperatures aloft and
at the surface, and increased upper level forcing conducive to the
development of showers and thunderstorms. While timing and
placement disagreement is relatively good, a difference of just a
few hours and strength will be quite influential in how the
potential for strong to severe storms develops, so we will need to
keep a close eye on Thursday for any severe potential that
develops. Beyond Thursday, models broadly agree that upper level
ridging will build back into the area, bringing a warming and
drying trend after a cool day on Friday. Ludwig
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&&

.AVIATION...
23/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA through the period. Do
expect increasing surface winds over North Central MT this
afternoon. As of now, the best chance for storms are expected to
remain mostly east of a Havre to Lewistown line, thus no storms are
currently in the TAF. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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GTF  54  83  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  48  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  57  87  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  54  87  49  86 /  10  10   0   0
WYS  47  80  43  82 /   0  10   0   0
DLN  53  86  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  81  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  52  79  48  76 /  30   0   0   0
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&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls