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119
FXUS65 KTFX 190837
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
237 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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Unsettled conditions are expected through the remainder of the
work week across the Northern Rockies, with high temperatures
slightly below to near normal. Warmer and drier condtions are
then expected over the weekend, with Sunday being the warmest day
of the upcoming week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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This morning...primary forecast concern through the morning hours
across Southwest through North Central Montana will be reduced
visibilities due to fog, with some areas potentially seeing dense
fog. NBM probabilities for visibility of one mile or less through
the morning hours at all locations are at least 10-20%, with a 40-
60% chance across the entirety of the Golden Triangle (Great Falls,
to Havre, to Cut Bank, to Great Falls). Within the Golden Triangle
HREF probabilities for a quarter of a mile or less peak at between
20-50%. Given recent precipitation across this area (i.e. Golden
Triangle) combined with clearing skies and light winds through the
morning hours, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 16z this
morning to cover the potential for significant reductions in
visibility. Fog will gradually dissipate beyond 16z this morning
with increasing solar insolation.

This afternoon through Friday night...unsettled conditions are
expected to persist through the end of the work week across the
Northern Rockies as moist southwest flow aloft, steep afternoon
lapse rates, and shortwaves rippling through the overall flow help
to support daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will be
especially true on Friday, when one of the "stronger" shortwaves
traverses over North Central and Central Montana, providing the best
opportunity for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. NBM
probabilities for a 0.25" or more of precipitation on Wednesday and
Thursday are less than 10% across all areas, but on Friday climb to
as high as 30-60% along and north of the Montana Hwy 200 corridor
and east of the I-15 corridor. High temperatures through the
remainder of the work week will continue to run below to near
normal, with highs ranging from the 60s today to the upper 60s to
upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.

Saturday through Sunday...ensemble clusters favor transient ridging
moving over the Northern Rockies over the weekend, which will look
to bring drier and warmer conditions to all of Southwest through
North Central Montana. Leading mode of uncertainty throughout this
timeframe is the amplitude of the ridge as it moves overhead, which
will ultimately determine how warm temperatures rise. Regardless of
the ultimate high temperature on either day, highs rising some 5-10
degrees and 10-20 degrees above average on Saturday and Sunday
respectively can be anticipated.

Monday through next Wednesday...multi-model ensemble supports general
southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies, with the leading
mode of uncertainty being the position and/or timing of the ridge
axis over the Western CONUS, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Deterministic NBM guidance is currently favoring a drier and warmer
solution as the ridge remains further west and more over the
Northern Rockies; however, should the ridge placement be further
east then a "slightly cooler" and "wetter" solution would then be
favored. - Moldan
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&&

.AVIATION...
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19/06Z TAF Period

Showers with an isolated lightning strike are diminishing across the
region. With calm winds, some clearing skies, and low level moisture
from rain earlier today, there is a chance for some fog to roll in
early this morning (in TAFs for KBZN, KWYS, KGTF, KCTB, and
KHVR). Model data suggests that fog can have the capability of
producing IFR conditions at KCTB/KGTF (30-40% chance for KGTF to
have LIFR ceilings if fog develops). Trends in fog will continue
to be monitored overnight. Other than fog, VFR conditions prevail
through the TAF period. There`s a 10-20% of some isolated
showers/few thunderstorms across Central/North Central MT
Wednesday afternoon. However, chances were too low to include them
in this round of TAFs, but may be added to future TAFs if
probabilities uptrend slightly.
-Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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GTF  66  38  74  48 /  20  20  20  20
CTB  63  35  72  44 /  40  20  20  20
HLN  71  43  80  52 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  68  37  76  46 /   0   0  20  10
WYS  62  31  71  40 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  66  35  73  45 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  68  41  76  50 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  64  38  71  46 /  40  20  40  40
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&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

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Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for Cascade
County below 5000ft-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central
Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and
Liberty-Hill County-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-
Western and Central Chouteau County.
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&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls