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935
FXUS65 KVEF 182039
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
139 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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After Tuesday`s cooldown, temperatures are forecast
to recover during the second half of the week into next week, with
temperatures returning to well above normal. First signs of the
monsoon later this week with a shallow surge of moisture into the
lower deserts and northwest Arizona. There is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over eastern Mohave County Friday through
Monday.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Through next Tuesday.

Wow, what a cold front for mid-June. Temperatures currently running
12-14 degrees below yesterday at Las Vegas Valley airports. Bishop
CA running 12 degrees cooler, while the Mojave Desert and lower CRV
of San Bernardino running 5-8 degrees below yesterday. As for the
north wind they have started to weaken on schedule in the lower CRV
and will continue to decrease further through the rest of the
afternoon.

Ensemble simulations continue to show a weak trough lingering across
California and Nevada through Thursday. This will keep the area
under a dry southwest flow but allow temperatures to quickly rebound
to normal tomorrow, then about 5 degrees above normal Thursday under
rising heights. No significant winds, just standard sustained south-
southwest wind 5-15 mph, with some gusts 20-25 mph in the
afternoon/early evening.

Southern California wildfires less active today now that the winds
have subsided. So, unless they flare back up or there are new fire
starts our area hopefully will see less smoke and haze in coming
days.

Beyond Thursday, massive ridge producing the excessive heat across
the central/eastern US will start to expand west, setting up shop
over the Desert Southwest at least through the middle of next week.
The probabilities for high temps 110+ for Las Vegas from Saturday
through next week now running between 60%-70%, which is an increase
for yesterday. Calculated HeatRisk shows widespread `Moderate`
values Saturday with pockets of `Major` category in the valleys of
southern Nevada, eastern California and southern Mohave Counties.
There is an expansion in `Major` HeatRisk with some pockets of
`Extreme` values Sunday-Monday. Heat products will likely be
coordinated in the coming days.

Lastly, there is a tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf of
Mexico which if forecast to drift west into mainland Mexico
Wednesday evening/or early Thursday. The inverted trough is progged
to continue moving west reaching the eastern Pacific later Thursday,
then continue drifting westward along the southern periphery of the
massive subtropical ridge over the Desert Southwest. ECMWF ensemble
continues to shows an initial, shallow surge of moisture into
western Arizona Friday. There is a more pronounced increase in
precipitable water values into the lower deserts of eastern San
Bernardino, Clark and Mohave Counties over the weekend and Monday.
Those PW values then start to decrease Tuesday. Made not
modifications to the NBM guidance which still paints 10%-30% PoPs
across eastern Mohave County in the afternoon/evening hours of
Friday-Monday.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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For Harry Reid...Gusty north winds have mostly ended
with northeast winds 10 knots or less expected the remainder of the
morning. Winds then look to gradually become east then southeast
briefly around sunset. Winds will then quickly shift to the
southwest after 03-04z and remain through sunrise Wednesday.
Scattered to broken high clouds to move into the region this evening
and overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty north winds to continue into the mid to late
afternoon at KEED and KIFP in the wake of a front. Elsewhere, winds
will generally decrease and become more diurnal in nature. Aside
from KEED/KIFP, wind speed generally look to remain 15 knots or
less. Winds at KBIH so shift the south this afternoon, then quickly
become northerly this evening and overnight. Winds at KDAG to remain
light and somewhat variable before shifting to the west/southwest
this evening and overnight, become gusty. Scattered to broken high
clouds to move into the region late this afternoon into the
overnight hours.
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&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Austin

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