Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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526 FXUS65 KABQ 042036 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 236 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The heat will get cranked up over the next couple of days, with high temperatures forecast to reach 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Roswell may hit at high of 105 on Thursday and Albuquerque may reach 100 degrees for the first time this year, posing some heat risk. Virga showers and mostly dry thunderstorms will trend up from Wednesday through Friday, producing strong and erratic wind gusts. Temperatures will trend down over the weekend and into early next week as high pressure loosens it`s grip on the region and moisture increases across the area. Good chances for showers and storms will favor eastern NM early next week thanks to a backdoor front. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A wash of cirrus clouds continues to cruise across the state as the trough axis of an upper low in CAN slides into the Great Plains. The feature`s tour has already kicked off a backdoor front down the plains, its progress into northeastern NM evident on visible satellite. Convection across the Panhandles later this evening will allow for Tds to rise across eastern NM as moisture surges westward. This strengthening of the density gradient between eastern NM and the RGV will allow for a modest easterly gap wind to take shape across the central valleys overnight, diminishing around sunrise. Pressure heights begin to rise Wednesday as a ridge begins to intensify over the western CONUS. While the central plains southward will see a modicum of cooling thanks to the fropa, areas to the north and west will see a few to several degrees of warming on Wednesday. The intensity of the heat will greatly depend on exactly how rich and how far the previous night`s moisture turns out. Gentle convergence amongst the aforementioned moisture may lead to isolated shower and thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon across the southwest and south central high terrain. The ridge of high pressure develops its center Wednesday night, wandering its way into the Land of Enchantment. This will allow for overnight temperatures to increase a few degrees compared to Tuesday night`s readings, placing them well above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A 593dam 500mb high will sit directly over central NM on Thursday, which will be the hottest day of the forecast cycle. The high temperature forecast for Thursday has trended back up slightly at a few locales, mostly notably in Albuquerque and Roswell where a Heat Advisory (low end) may be required. Moisture trapped under the upper high circulation from the backdoor front, including Gulf moisture creep into central NM on southerly low level flow, will fuel a round of daytime-heating triggered convection on Thursday afternoon/evening. However, moisture will not be sufficient for deep convection and the lower boundary layer will still be relatively dry. Meaning, virga showers and dry thunder are more likely than wetting rainfall. Similar setup for Friday, although with high temps 1-2 degrees lower corresponding to slightly lower pressure heights. Another round of daytime heating-triggered convection is forecast Friday and will likely be mostly dry again. The NAM is advertising impressive downdraft CAPE values of 2000-3000J/kg both Thu/Fri and if realized would result in some damaging wind gusts between 60-80mph. A weak baja low will approach slowly from the southwest Sat/Sun and the upper high is forecast to breakdown more, with 500mb pressure heights dropping to 586-589dam. Expect temperatures to decrease with pressure heights over the weekend with sufficient moisture for a mix of dry/wet showers and storms. Northeast NM will be favored for deeper convection over the weekend as a backdoor front pokes in and provides both added moisture and forcing. A more notable backdoor front is forecast to bring cooler temperatures and significant moisture to eastern NM Mon/Tue of next week, with improved chances for showers and storms from the central mountain chain eastward. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Disturbance migrating along the CAN/US border will allow for increased bands of cirrus to persist. Gusty nwly winds will be common across most terminals this aftn, with gusts up to 25 kt possible. Winds across the ern plains will shift nly as a boundary descends through the late afternoon and evening, turning ely as the boundary surges wwd. The increase in moisture may create lower cigs across the ern plains to the east slopes of the central mts. Ely gap winds may develop at KABQ aft 05/08Z but are not expected to become strong. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A backdoor front descending into the eastern plains this evening through tonight will allow for a decent rise in minimum RH Wednesday across the eastern plains. While values will be above 15 percent in eastern New Mexico, areas west of the central mountains will continue to be in the low double digits to single digits. Generally light winds will prevail in the afternoon amongst mostly sunny skies and above average warmth. The ridge of high pressure will center itself over the state on Thursday, bringing well above normal temperatures. Similar humidity conditions will exist amongst light winds. The aforementioned influx of moisture will give rise to high terrain thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, given that surface dewpoints will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s at best with relatively starved midlevel moisture, do expect that a majority of this development to trend drier. The dry lightning aspect could be particularly hazardous given the recent stretches of widespread single digit relative humidity in these areas. Coverage of storms will increase through the weekend, along with an increase in moisture quality. The best chances for wetting rainfall will favor along and east of the central mountains through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 52 94 54 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 42 89 45 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 49 88 52 91 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 45 91 46 96 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 51 87 54 91 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 46 90 48 95 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 51 89 53 93 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 60 90 62 93 / 0 0 0 20 Datil........................... 55 89 58 91 / 0 5 0 30 Reserve......................... 44 94 47 97 / 0 10 5 30 Glenwood........................ 60 99 63 100 / 0 10 0 30 Chama........................... 43 84 46 87 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 60 85 63 91 / 0 5 0 20 Pecos........................... 53 88 55 91 / 0 10 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 83 49 86 / 5 5 0 20 Red River....................... 42 74 44 79 / 0 5 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 36 79 37 82 / 0 5 0 20 Taos............................ 46 88 49 92 / 5 5 0 10 Mora............................ 47 82 51 87 / 0 10 0 30 Espanola........................ 56 93 57 98 / 0 5 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 58 87 61 93 / 0 10 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 91 58 96 / 0 5 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 92 67 97 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 93 65 99 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 96 64 101 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 95 64 99 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 58 96 60 101 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 61 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 57 96 59 101 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 59 95 61 100 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 57 96 60 101 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 62 91 64 96 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 62 94 64 99 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 64 99 65 102 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 86 61 91 / 0 5 0 10 Tijeras......................... 58 89 61 94 / 0 5 0 10 Edgewood........................ 55 88 58 94 / 0 5 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 90 52 96 / 0 5 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 53 85 56 91 / 0 5 0 20 Mountainair..................... 56 90 59 93 / 0 5 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 53 90 56 93 / 0 5 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 61 94 63 95 / 0 10 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 57 87 58 87 / 0 30 5 30 Capulin......................... 51 84 53 85 / 5 5 0 20 Raton........................... 51 89 53 91 / 5 5 0 20 Springer........................ 52 90 54 93 / 5 10 0 30 Las Vegas....................... 52 85 55 90 / 5 10 0 20 Clayton......................... 57 90 61 89 / 5 0 0 10 Roy............................. 56 87 59 92 / 5 5 0 20 Conchas......................... 61 95 64 100 / 5 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 60 91 62 98 / 5 0 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 60 94 65 100 / 5 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 63 94 65 99 / 0 0 5 5 Portales........................ 62 95 64 100 / 5 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 62 95 64 101 / 5 5 0 10 Roswell......................... 70 100 70 105 / 0 10 0 10 Picacho......................... 62 92 62 97 / 0 20 0 30 Elk............................. 59 90 58 94 / 0 30 5 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...12