Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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953 FXUS65 KABQ 071145 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 545 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Another hot day is on tap for central and northern NM, but the coverage of showers and storms will be greater this afternoon than yesterday. A mix of wet and dry storms will favor the high terrain and any showers and storms that do develop will be capable of producing very gusty outflow winds. In addition, a few strong to severe storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts across the eastern plains each afternoon through Monday. Storms will trend wetter this weekend into Monday as moisture levels increase. This will amplify the risk of burn scar flash flooding Sunday and Monday afternoon, particularly in northern NM. After a brief cooldown Monday, temperatures rise again mid-week as the state dries out. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Center of the 593dam low will saunter vaguely eastward towards TX today, weakening in its trek. It`s migration won`t offer much in way of relief from the heat, with well above average temperatures persisting areawide. Temperatures will flirt with the century mark across the RGV and northwest plateau once again today, and near 105F in Quay Co and the Chaves Co plains. A few variables could throw a wrench in the gears of these areas hitting Heat Advisory criteria today--namely, the increasing moisture and potential for expanding cloud cover. However, given locally breezy downsloping winds and continued strength of the high, did maintain the previously issued advisory, as well as expand its area to the aforementioned eastern zones. After yesterday`s meager PWATs, an influx of moisture will raise PWAT values a few to several tenths of an inch. This will help to invigorate the moisture quality of afternoon storms, particularly east of the central mts. DCAPE values are still impressive, ranging between 1000 and 2500 J/kg, and will allow cells to be capable of sudden and potentially severe downburst winds. The high tours TX tonight into Saturday morning, elongating and weakening further, as a loitering eastern Pacific low begins to scoot into the Baja CA. Meanwhile, a pair of lows tangoing in CAN will allow flow aloft to become northwest just to our north. This will help to enhance lift to generate some more robust convective activity across northeastern NM. Elsewhere, another round of hit-and- miss storms will dominate the afternoon. With the continued high DCAPE, gusty downburst winds will remain a threat. The upper high`s escape to TX will subsequently lower H5 pressure heights and daytime highs will cool a few degrees compared to the previous day`s readings. This will take all locales out of the crosshairs of Heat Advisory criteria for Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Diurnal convection will wind down Saturday evening in most areas with the loss of daytime heating. The northeast plains is the one area where convection may persist through the overnight as outflow boundaries collide and create new updrafts. The Low currently spinning off the coast of Baja California will finally begin to lift northward on Sunday. This could help some surface moisture associated with convective activity in northern Mexico make its way northward into southern NM, but its main impact will be the lift it provides to create scattered to widespread showers and storms on Sunday afternoon. PWATs are modeled to peak on Sunday at 150-250% of normal, with the greatest anomalies over the northern mountains where storm activity will focus. Slow storm motions combined with this deep moisture will result in an increased risk of burn scar flash flooding over the HPCC burn scar. Once again, storms could continue well into the overnight hours across the eastern plains thanks to continued moist air advection from the east. This will likely send an outflow boundary through the gaps of the central mtn chain, ushering in some gusty east winds and surging dewpoints into the low 50s. Lingering cloud cover could limit convective activity somewhat Monday afternoon, but destabilization still appears likely at least along and east of the central mtn chain. The good news is that storms should be moving off the mountains quicker than Sunday (10-15mph), however back-building storms will still result in an elevated flood risk over the HPCC burn scar. Ridging is expected to amplify from the south on Monday as a northwesterly shortwave grazes the northeastern portion of the forecast area. The bump in shear this wave provides could support organizing storms and supercells, but its too early to tell if it will line up with the area of greatest instability. Given the moisture and cloud cover, Monday looks to be the coolest day of the week with high temps ranging from near average across the west to as much as 20 degrees below average across the east. However, the relief will be short-lived because amplifying ridging from the west will dry out western areas and bring temps back above seasonal averages. Ensemble guidance is struggling to figure out where this ridge axis will set-up mid-week, with some showing it as far west as the PacNW and others as far east as the spine of the Rockies. Furthermore, around 35% of members are showing the development of another closed Low off the southern CA coast to the west of where the ridge sets up. Above average temperatures and little precipitation will be favored during the mid to late week timeframe, although afternoon virga showers and dry storms are possible each afternoon over the high terrain. Then, fire weather concerns may return next weekend. Around 45% of global ensembles are showing a deep trough developing over The Great Basin, placing dry and gusty southwest flow over New Mexico. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Density gradient-driven ely winds at KABQ will continue diminishing through the early morning hours. Isold to sct shwrs and tstms will return this aftn with the potential of sudden and strong downburst winds. Some storms may be capable of lcl heavy rainfall which could cause brief reductions in cigs/vsbys. Outflow from convective activity may generate wind shifts throughout the aftn and evening. Storms will diminish aft 08/03Z most areas with winds becoming light and variable. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Moisture will improve somewhat today, with nearly all zones (save for the plains) seeing an increase to min RH of around 5 to 10 percent. Winds will increase areawide, with locally breezy south to southwest winds expected across the highlands and their adjacent plains. This will create some localized and brief duration critical fire weather conditions across the east central plains this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible once again with most cells trending drier across the central mountains and westward, with wetter footprints possible in portions of the eastern plains. Any cells that develop will be capable of sudden, strong, and erratic downburst winds, as well as cloud to ground lightning. Given the previous week`s long duration of single digit RH, dry lightning into receptive fuel beds could create new fire starts. A mix of wet/dry storms will continue on Saturday and very low min RH will return to the Rio Grande Valley and westward. The potential for wetting footprints increases Sunday into Monday, along with a welcome cooldown to daytime highs. Min RH will trend down on Tuesday, with all locales seeing a reduction of around 10 to 25 percent. Unsettled weather will persist through the end of the week, with afternoon storms favoring the high terrain, the wetting footprints of which are likely to nominal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 99 58 96 58 / 5 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 93 47 91 46 / 10 10 5 0 Cuba............................ 92 54 90 55 / 20 20 5 5 Gallup.......................... 95 49 92 53 / 20 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 90 53 86 57 / 30 20 0 5 Grants.......................... 94 52 91 55 / 30 20 0 5 Quemado......................... 89 54 87 57 / 40 10 5 10 Magdalena....................... 91 62 90 63 / 40 20 20 20 Datil........................... 88 58 87 60 / 60 20 20 20 Reserve......................... 95 49 91 50 / 50 10 10 20 Glenwood........................ 99 64 94 63 / 30 10 10 20 Chama........................... 86 47 85 47 / 20 10 10 5 Los Alamos...................... 90 63 88 63 / 20 20 20 5 Pecos........................... 93 58 91 56 / 30 20 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 50 84 50 / 20 10 30 20 Red River....................... 78 47 77 45 / 20 20 40 30 Angel Fire...................... 83 40 81 40 / 20 20 30 20 Taos............................ 92 51 90 51 / 20 20 20 10 Mora............................ 88 51 85 50 / 30 20 40 20 Espanola........................ 97 59 96 60 / 20 10 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 92 62 91 61 / 20 20 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 95 60 95 60 / 20 20 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 67 96 67 / 20 20 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 65 97 66 / 20 20 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 63 99 66 / 20 20 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 65 98 67 / 20 20 0 5 Belen........................... 101 61 99 64 / 20 20 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 100 65 99 66 / 20 20 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 100 60 99 63 / 20 20 0 5 Corrales........................ 100 63 99 65 / 20 20 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 101 61 99 64 / 20 20 0 10 Placitas........................ 96 65 95 66 / 20 20 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 99 66 98 67 / 20 20 0 5 Socorro......................... 102 66 101 69 / 20 20 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 62 90 61 / 20 20 5 10 Tijeras......................... 94 62 92 61 / 20 20 5 10 Edgewood........................ 94 60 92 59 / 20 20 5 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 96 54 94 55 / 20 20 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 91 57 89 55 / 20 20 10 20 Mountainair..................... 93 59 92 59 / 20 20 5 20 Gran Quivira.................... 92 58 92 58 / 30 20 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 95 65 95 65 / 30 30 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 88 59 87 60 / 50 40 40 30 Capulin......................... 90 56 85 53 / 40 20 70 50 Raton........................... 94 54 91 54 / 30 20 60 40 Springer........................ 95 56 92 56 / 30 20 50 30 Las Vegas....................... 91 56 89 54 / 30 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 97 63 91 59 / 30 20 40 50 Roy............................. 93 60 91 58 / 30 20 40 40 Conchas......................... 102 64 100 63 / 20 20 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 97 63 97 62 / 20 20 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 103 66 102 62 / 10 20 10 30 Clovis.......................... 100 68 101 65 / 5 20 5 40 Portales........................ 101 67 101 65 / 5 10 0 30 Fort Sumner..................... 101 66 101 64 / 10 20 5 30 Roswell......................... 104 71 104 72 / 20 10 5 10 Picacho......................... 96 63 95 66 / 40 30 30 20 Elk............................. 95 61 92 63 / 40 30 40 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219-234-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...12