927
FXUS65 KABQ 301821 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1221 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Moisture will linger over far eastern New Mexico today, and a weak
upper level disturbance will continue to approach the state. Under
this scenario, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon, mainly in northeastern
areas of the state. Some storms may turn strong to severe with
hail, damaging winds and brief heavy downpours. Elsewhere dry
conditions with moderate breezes are forecast today with warm and
seasonable temperatures. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible again on Friday and Saturday in eastern New Mexico and
particularly in the northeastern corner of the state where gusty
winds and hail may accompany any storms. Elsewhere, dry
conditions with generally light to moderate breezes are forecast
with mostly seasonable temperatures for late May and the first of
June. Drier and warmer weather conditions are expected to follow
early next week as moisture struggles to stay within the Land of
Enchantment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

The higher dewpoints finally mixed out of western areas late on
Wednesday, but they have banked back up against the east slopes of
the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains again this
morning. This sets the stage for another round of scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of these
mountains this afternoon, and also southeastward across the plains
of Curry and Roosevelt Counties with an active dryline. Storm
motion this afternoon and evening will be toward the east around
15-25 mph. The perturbations embedded in the flow aloft are
forecast to be weaker today, and with 0-6 KM bulk shear only from
15-30 KT, any severe storms today should be more isolated. The
dry air moving in from the west today will also be quite
impressive, so this will feel like a bit of a downtick in
convection and storm severity today compared to the past couple
days.

Tonight, a gusty and moist backdoor front will plunge southwestward
through the eastern plains and seep into the central valley below
canyons by early Friday morning setting the atmosphere up for an
uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity on Friday afternoon.
Friday`s convection will mostly span the area along and east of the
central mountain chain, and also pop in the upper Rio Grande Valley
and northwest mountains where gusty virga showers will probably be
more common than thunderstorms. Along the central mountain chain and
into the northwest mountains Friday afternoon and evening, some dry
thunderstorms are expected with localized, erratic, and brief dry
microburst wind gusts up to 50 mph. Further east, northwest flow
aloft riding over moisture rich southeasterly return flow at the
surface will result in bulk shear values from 30-40 kt. CAPE will
also be sufficient for another severe thunderstorm outbreak.

After high temperatures a few to around 6 degrees above 1991-2020
averages today, readings will fall a few to 7 degrees below today`s
highs across eastern areas on Friday while western readings
remain above the averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Convective storms across eastern CO and northeastern NM Friday
evening will hurl out another moist outflow boundary that will
advance toward the Rio Grande valley by Saturday morning. Winds
will veer southerly into the afternoon hours Saturday, and the
dryline will become established over roughly the eastern third of
NM where storms will potentially be triggered. The best speed max
aloft will be part of the subtropical jet staying essentially
south of NM while a weak shortwave trough moves into CO to our
north. Generally 20-30 percent POPs have been built into the
Saturday afternoon forecast over along and east of the central
mountain chain with diurnal heating and weak/localized upslope
likely being the main catalysts for convective initiation. The
best shear for strong to severe cells would likely stay in the
northeastern zones with marginal 0-6 km bulk shear elsewhere.
Convection that develops over eastern NM (and more-so over west TX
where a large MCS is expected to take shape) will keep low layer
moisture entrenched over eastern zones through Saturday night, but
it is not modeled to advance very far west and stalls just east
of the central mountain chain.

Moisture will not be able to reside through Sunday though, as a
weak shortwave trough will move through along with a deepening
lee-side surface low that should keep the winds oriented
southwesterly which would advect drier air into eastern NM.
Consequently, temperatures will warm up several degrees in eastern
zones Sunday with breezy conditions expected in northeastern
areas.

Into Monday, the flow aloft will stay westerly with a gentle
trough or perhaps even a weak circulation developing near or just
offshore of the upper Baja peninsula. The GFS and Canadian are
modeling a weak backdoor boundary reintroducing moisture to
northeastern NM, but this faint feature does not appear to trigger
much, if any, convection at this point. NM then looks to remain
between the Baja low and a northern Great Plains low on Tuesday,
keeping us dry with light flow. This would then potentially morph
into a continental ridge that would start to stand up over the
southwestern states with more definition into Wednesday. Light
flow would persist, but the dryline could be encroaching into west
TX.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Convection will focus across the northeastern quarter of the state
from 18Z through 03Z, with the potential for storms to linger near
the TX border through 06Z. Storms across the far northeast may
produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, including at KCAO and
KTCC. Storms will cluster together over the TX Panhandle, sending
an outflow boundary south and west. Gusty north to east winds up
to 35kts are possible with this boundary and it may create gusty
winds at KABQ between 07Z and 15Z. Gusts to 35kts appear unlikely
at KABQ, but an AWW may be needed if nocturnal convection across
the east is more robust than currently forecast.

Easterly upslope flow may generate MVFR to IFR cigs across along
the east slopes of the central mountain chain and in the eastern
plains, with the highest confidence from central highlands
southward to the Capitan mountains. Low clouds may linger through
the late morning across eastern NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Moisture will continue to slosh into the eastern plains nightly for
the rest of the week with return flow and moist backdoor fronts,
then mix eastward with an active dryline each afternoon. Daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on the eastern
plains and as far west as the central mountain chain. Along the
western edge of the moisture, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are
forecast along the central mountain chain each afternoon. The
greatest coverage of dry thunderstorms will be Friday and
Saturday, when they may extend into the northwest mountains and
upper Rio Grande valley with an assortment of gusty virga showers
around them. Westerly flow looks to strengthen and probably become
gusty Sunday through Tuesday with little or no chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  86  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  82  38  83  39 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  81  46  82  48 /   0   0   5   5
Gallup..........................  84  43  86  42 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  46  81  42 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  84  43  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  81  47  84  45 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  83  55  84  54 /   0   0   5   5
Datil...........................  80  50  82  48 /   0   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  88  42  89  41 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  91  58  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  76  40  76  41 /   5   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  79  54  80  55 /   5   0  10  10
Pecos...........................  81  49  81  51 /  20   0  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  75  46  75  45 /   5   5  20  10
Red River.......................  71  38  70  35 /  20  10  30  20
Angel Fire......................  73  35  73  29 /  20   5  30  20
Taos............................  82  41  81  43 /   5   5  20  10
Mora............................  78  43  78  45 /  20   5  30  20
Espanola........................  87  49  88  52 /   5   0  10  10
Santa Fe........................  82  53  83  54 /  10   0  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  86  50  86  52 /  10   0  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  59  89  58 /  10   0  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  56  91  60 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  56  92  53 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  89  57  90  59 /   0   0   5   5
Belen...........................  91  51  92  54 /   0   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  90  56  91  57 /   0   0   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  91  51  92  52 /   0   0   5   5
Corrales........................  91  56  91  56 /   0   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  91  53  92  54 /   0   0   5   5
Placitas........................  86  57  87  57 /  10   0  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  89  56  91  58 /   0   0   5   5
Socorro.........................  93  57  95  59 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  80  52  81  53 /  20   0  20  20
Tijeras.........................  84  53  84  53 /  20   0  20  20
Edgewood........................  84  49  86  49 /  20   0  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  43  86  46 /  20   0  20  20
Clines Corners..................  81  48  80  49 /  20   0  20  20
Mountainair.....................  84  49  85  50 /   5   0  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  84  49  85  50 /   5   0  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  88  56  90  57 /   0   0  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  81  52  81  49 /   0   0  20  10
Capulin.........................  78  46  75  44 /  30  20  60  30
Raton...........................  83  46  81  45 /  20  10  50  30
Springer........................  84  47  80  48 /  20  10  50  30
Las Vegas.......................  81  46  79  48 /  20   5  30  30
Clayton.........................  85  53  78  53 /  40  30  40  30
Roy.............................  83  50  78  51 /  30  20  50  30
Conchas.........................  91  56  86  56 /  20  10  30  40
Santa Rosa......................  88  54  84  56 /  20   5  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  92  56  85  57 /  20  20  20  30
Clovis..........................  93  58  86  60 /  20  10  20  30
Portales........................  94  56  88  58 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  93  55  88  57 /  20   5  20  30
Roswell.........................  99  62  95  64 /   0   0  20  20
Picacho.........................  92  55  87  56 /   0   0  20  10
Elk.............................  91  53  88  53 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16