578
FXUS65 KABQ 060008 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
608 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The hottest temperatures of the year will be possible tomorrow,
creating moderate to major heat risk across much of northern and
central New Mexico. Afternoon thunderstorms will favor the high
terrain and adjacent lowlands. Less heat expected Friday and
Saturday. Coverage of storms will increase through early next week,
peaking on Sunday, with the greatest potential favoring the central
mountains and eastward. A reduction of around 5 to 15 degrees is
forecast for Sunday`s high temperatures compared to Saturday`s
readings. Temperatures will begin trending warmer on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A 591 dm upper level ridge is building over the desert SW near Las
Vegas this afternoon allowing temperatures to heat up, especially
across western and central NM. East central and southeastern areas
are pretty similar to yesterday temperature wise as a backdoor front
that moved through last night leveled off the warming trend. The
weak backdoor front along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain has resulted in the development of high based cumulus and
showers across the Sacramento Mountains and southern Sangre de
Cristo mountains. Main hazard from this activity will be erratic
gusty winds of up to 50 mph across the surrounding highlands as well
as some dry lightning in the mountainous terrain. Any activity will
quickly dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating
with mostly clear skies, light winds and mild temperatures overnight.

The upper level ridge center moves over the state Thursday
strengthening to 594 dm. This will result in the hottest day of the
year to date for basically the entire state with upper 90s to low to
mid 100s common for lower elevations outside of the far northeast
plains. The Heat Advisory has been expanded to include the northwest
plateau, including Farmington, and the lower RGV, including Socorro,
due to temperatures in those zones getting to criteria values of 100
and 105 degrees respectively. The latest experimental HeatRisk index
shows widespread moderate indices (2 out of 4) outside of the Sangre
de Cristo mountains and far northeast NM with major heat indices (3
out of 4) across the middle and lower RGV and east central and
southeast plains. Therefore, remember to take precautions during the
hottest part of the day by staying hydrated, limiting strenuous
activities, and taking frequent breaks in the shade or indoors with
any cooling systems. In terms of precipitation chances, a backdoor
front will be draped across the southern TX panhandle just north of
the caprock (near Tucumcari) extending northwest to the east slopes
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Surface convergence looks to
be sufficient enough to break the warm mid level subsidence cap come
the afternoon to result in the development of a few isolated dry
virga showers and storms across the Sangre de Cristo mountains and
adjacent northeast highlands. Wetter storms will also be possible
along the boundary in the southern Texas panhandle and the outflow
from these storms could generate new ones in far east central NM in
Quay, Curry and Roosevelt County. Intense daytime heating will
result in the development of a few isolated dry virga showers and
storms in the Gila Mountains and south central mountains.
Inverted V sounding and DCAPE values over a 1000 J/kg will support
erratic strong gusty winds of 50 to 60 mph in these areas. Any
convective activity quickly fizzles around sunset with higher
surface moisture sloshing back west across the eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The center of the stubbornly hot 593dam high wobbles vaguely
eastward Friday morning. This position and its slight weakening
through the day will allow for a modest influx of moisture along its
western side, giving rise to an uptick in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, the majority of which will favor the high terrain.
DCAPE continues to trend excessive, with values in excess of 2000
J/kg possible. This would lend to a potent dry downburst threat
in the afternoon. Given the lackluster low level moisture, storms
will also be capable of dry lightning. Temperatures will see a
slight reprieve from Thursday`s readings but will still flirt with
or be at Heat Advisory criteria for a few zones. The upper high
wanders further into TX on Saturday, elongating and weakening in
its trek. A similar setup will persist in regards to shower and
thunderstorm coverage. Meanwhile, a baggy upper low loitering in
the eastern Pacific will push inland from the Baja California
Saturday night. Departures still run rampant in the treatment of
this low, the ECMWF allowing it to be absorbed by the prevailing
upper ridge. The GFS foretells a less dramatic fate, allowing the
feature to ride under the ridge and make it into wester NM before
it succumbs to its demise. While the journey is different, the
outcome is mostly the same: an increase in available moisture and
lower temperatures. Locales will see anywhere from 5F to 15F in
reduction to daytime temperatures compared to Saturday`s readings.
A few more degrees of cooling are possible Monday. Moisture and
the utilization thereof will improve during this event, leading to
greater wetting footprints, particularly along the central mts
and eastward Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Isolated virga showers will continue along and just east of the
central mountain chain, and also over the southwest mountains,
until sunset this evening. An isolated thunderstorm will also be
possible along the east slopes of the Sacramento, Capitan, and
Guadalupe Mountains until sunset. Dry microbursts may produce
localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT near virga
showers or dry thunderstorms. Thursday morning a backdoor cold
front will push southwestward through northeast and east central
areas with a northeasterly wind shift. Thursday afternoon and
early evening, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast along and east of the central mountain chain, as well as
over the southwest mountains. Some thunderstorms along the
central mountain chain and over the southwest mountains will
produce little or no rain with localized, brief, and erratic dry
microburst wind gusts over 45 KT. Finally, high temperatures
around 8-14 degrees above 1991-2020 averages will make density
altitude an important consideration for aviation operations near
complex terrain Thursday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

No critical fire weather conditions expected through mid next week.
Intense heat will build over the region and peak Thursday as a
strong area of high pressure settles over NM. Moisture increases
heading into the weekend resulting in better chances for drier
showers and storms and little wetting rainfall areawide through
Friday. Main concern from these storms will be dry lightning starts
in the higher terrain. A backdoor front enters northeast NM Saturday
increasing low level moisture and thus chances for wetter showers
and storms. Wetter shower and storm activity, especially along the
east slopes of the central mountain chain, looks to peak Sunday and
possibly Monday as well due to the backdoor front banking up against
the east slopes of the central mountain chain and an upper level low
moving in from the southwest. Shower and storm chances trend down
mid next week as high pressure builds back in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54 100  59  98 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  45  93  47  93 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  53  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  20
Gallup..........................  48  97  52  93 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  54  93  56  88 /   0   5  10  40
Grants..........................  49  97  54  92 /   0   5   5  40
Quemado.........................  53  94  59  90 /   0  10  20  50
Magdalena.......................  63  95  65  91 /   0  10  10  50
Datil...........................  58  93  61  89 /   0  20  20  60
Reserve.........................  48  96  52  94 /   0  20  20  50
Glenwood........................  64  98  67  99 /   0  20  20  50
Chama...........................  47  86  49  87 /   0   0   0  20
Los Alamos......................  63  93  64  89 /   0   0   5  30
Pecos...........................  57  91  58  94 /   0  10  10  30
Cerro/Questa....................  50  87  52  86 /   0  10   5  30
Red River.......................  46  78  47  76 /   0  20  10  40
Angel Fire......................  40  82  42  83 /   0  20   5  30
Taos............................  49  93  52  92 /   0  10   5  20
Mora............................  52  85  52  87 /   0  20  10  40
Espanola........................  57 100  60  96 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe........................  61  94  63  92 /   0   5  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  58  97  61  96 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  98  69  97 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  65 100  67  98 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  64 102  66 100 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64 100  67  99 /   0   0   5  20
Belen...........................  60 103  63 100 /   0   0  10  20
Bernalillo......................  63 101  66  99 /   0   0   5  20
Bosque Farms....................  59 102  63 100 /   0   0   5  20
Corrales........................  62 100  65 100 /   0   0   5  20
Los Lunas.......................  60 102  64 100 /   0   0   5  20
Placitas........................  65  99  66  96 /   0   0   5  20
Rio Rancho......................  64 100  66  98 /   0   0   5  20
Socorro.........................  66 103  68 101 /   0   0  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  93  63  91 /   0   0   5  20
Tijeras.........................  62  96  63  94 /   0   0   5  20
Edgewood........................  57  96  59  93 /   0   0  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  97  55  95 /   0   5  10  20
Clines Corners..................  58  93  58  91 /   0  10  10  20
Mountainair.....................  59  95  61  93 /   0   5  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  59  96  60  92 /   0  10  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  65  96  66  94 /   0  20  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  61  88  62  88 /   5  30  20  40
Capulin.........................  55  83  55  88 /   0  30  10  50
Raton...........................  55  91  54  93 /   0  20  10  40
Springer........................  55  93  55  94 /   0  30  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  55  90  56  91 /   0  20  10  30
Clayton.........................  61  88  60  96 /   0  10  10  30
Roy.............................  58  91  58  93 /   0  20  10  30
Conchas.........................  65 100  64 101 /   0  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  63  99  64  97 /   0  10  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  66 102  65 100 /   0  10  20  10
Clovis..........................  66 101  68 101 /   0  10  30   5
Portales........................  65 103  68 102 /   0  10  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  65 102  68 100 /   0  10  20  10
Roswell.........................  71 107  74 105 /   0   5  10  10
Picacho.........................  63  98  66  96 /   5  20  10  30
Elk.............................  61  95  64  93 /   5  30  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ201-219-220-
238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...44