328
FXUS65 KABQ 051105 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
505 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The year`s hottest temperatures thus far continue
through the end of the work week, peaking in intensity Thursday. A
Heat Advisory has been issued for the Middle Rio Grande Valley
(Albuquerque) and the Chaves County Plains (Roswell) where highs
will rise to 100F and 105F respectively. 90s and 100s will be
commonplace each day for lower elevation areas through Friday.
Meanwhile, afternoon thunderstorm chances steadily increase each day
beginning Wednesday and peaking in coverage Sunday. These storms
will favor areas mainly along and east of the central mountain
chain. Scattered dry thunderstorms will be favored through west-
central NM Friday afternoon, capable of producing very strong and
erratic downburst wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The latest water vapor loop shows a large upper level ridge building
over the desert southwest with northeast flow aloft over NM. The 00Z
RAOBs along the CA coastline showed 590dm H5 pressure heights within
this ridge axis. At the surface, a weak backdoor cold front shifted
southwest across eastern NM overnight. Dewpoints have risen into the
40s and 50s along and east of the central mt chain. Light canyon
winds are likely to develop in the RGV by sunrise as this airmass
seeps westward thru the central mt chain. The combination of strong
afternoon heating beneath the approaching upper ridge, weak surface
convergence along the central mt chain, and shallow moisture with
the remnant backdoor front will give way to high-based showers and
storms this afternoon. Large inverted-V profiles with DCAPE values
of 1000-1500 J/kg will support strong downburst winds with any of
the stronger cells. A few lucky spots may see measurable rainfall
but most locales will stay dry with blowing dust possible. Areas
around Ruidoso will be in a better PW environment with weak steering
flow so that area has the best chance to see >0.10" from any storms.
Max temps over eastern NM will be similar to Tuesday with widespread
90s and low 100s. Western NM will see the warmest temps so far this
year with readings well into the 90s.

The upper level ridge will shift east tonight and build into an H5
dome near 593dm over central NM Thursday. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for the middle RGV with highs topping out near 100F across
much of the ABQ metro. The Farmington area may be added if temps
trend a degree or two warmer. The latest NBM probability of max
temps >99F is almost 80% for ABQ. Chaves County was also added to
the Heat Advisory for max temps of 105F and NBM probs are also very
high in this area. Low level flow will be veering out of the south
over eastern NM Thursday afternoon while another backdoor cold front
approaches from the northeast. A cluster of storms is expected to
develop near the Caprock as strong surface convergence works with
abundant moisture and instability in the area. ML CAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg with PWATs near 1" and bulk shear around 20kt is supportive of
locally heavy rainfall from these storms. High-based showers and
storms are possible again farther west along the central mt chain
with strong downburst winds by late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Friday begins the long term period with the 593dm H5
ridge still mostly centered over NM and higher low-level moisture
embedded within in southerly return flow across eastern NM.
Numerical models have backed off with the amount of low-level
moisture entrenched across eastern NM, pushing forecast highs up a
few degrees for Friday. Parts of ABQ will again flirt with 100F,
with other lower elevation areas of the Rio Grande, Pecos, and
Canadian River Valleys to include Socorro, Roswell and Tucumcari
will all reach or surpass 100F. High temperatures finally back off a
degree or two Saturday as pressure heights begin to fall as the H5
ridge weakens to 591dm. A more notable cooling trend begins Sunday
to Tuesday as more moisture works its way into eastern NM and the
upper ridge breaks down further and gets displaced by an incoming
weak upper low from the northern Baja.

Concerning precipitation chances, coverage of afternoon
thunderstorms increases along the central mountain chain Friday from
what is forecast for Thursday. Numerical models are continuing to
show an impressive batch of high-based storms developing over the
Gila NF and west-central NM Friday afternoon. With DCAPE values
being resolved in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg, any of these storms will be
capable of producing strong downburst wind gusts. Dry lightning will
also be a threat from any of these cells in west-central NM as they
produce little to no rainfall as a heads up. Some of this outflow
beginning in Catron, Socorro and Cibola Counties could expand as far
into the Rio Grande Valley as Valencia and Bernalillo Counties by
the evening hours. Saturday will again see a dichotomy of
precipitation chances across the state with the leading edge of a
frontal boundary backing into northeastern NM helping to kickoff
convection along and east of the Sangre de Cristo`s. Meanwhile,
lesser storm chances will be present further south and west. Sunday
still seems like the day with the most widespread convective
activity as the upper low from the northern Baja rounds the
northwestern periphery of the upper ridge. It`s upper level
perturbation will enable the moisture rich easterly upslope flow
into the central mountain chain to realize its convective potential.
Scattered to numerous storms are forecast along and east of the
central mountain chain, with more dry conditions along and west of
the Rio Grande Valley. An east canyon wind from thunderstorm
outflows will be likely into Santa Fe and Albuquerque Sunday
evening. What`s left of the upper low from the northern Baja will
round the northern and northeastern periphery of the ridge through
eastern CO Monday, providing another round of afternoon thunderstorm
chances for northeastern NM. The ridge looks to hold onto its
structural integrity Wednesday and beyond after weakening and
becoming deformed Monday and Tuesday with continued replenishment of
low-level moisture into eastern NM. This will continue the pattern
of afternoon thunderstorm chances for areas along and east of the
central mountain chain and drier weather along and west of the Rio
Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A surface boundary is draped along the central mt chain early this
morning. A patch of low cigs has developed behind this boundary from
near KLVS and KCQC. A brief period of gap winds is still possible
at KABQ with gusts below 20 kt expected thru 16Z. Isolated high-
based SHRA/TS will develop along the central mt chain after 2pm
then move erratically southward into nearby highlands thru sunset.
This activity will be capable of producing strong downburst wind
gusts and patchy BLDU. Temps will be hot today across central and
western NM with readings well into the 90s in the lower terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions expected for the next
5 to 7 days. Intense heat will build over the region as a strong
area of high pressure settles over NM. Low level moisture will also
slide under this high and increase chances for showers and storms
through the weekend. The main concern will be new lightning starts
from high-based showers and storms with gusty and erratic downburst
winds. Most storms along and west of the Cont Dvd will be dry, then
a mix of wet and dry along the central mt chain, and mainly wet over
eastern NM. A much better surge of moisture may arrive Sunday and
Monday with wetting rainfall possible along and east of the central
mt chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  54  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  90  45  93  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  88  53  92  57 /   0   0   5   5
Gallup..........................  92  48  95  53 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  87  55  90  58 /   0   0  10  10
Grants..........................  90  49  94  54 /   0   0   5   5
Quemado.........................  89  53  93  58 /   0   0  10  20
Magdalena.......................  90  62  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
Datil...........................  88  58  91  61 /   0   0  20  10
Reserve.........................  95  46  97  52 /   5   0  20  20
Glenwood........................  99  63 101  64 /   5   5  20  10
Chama...........................  84  47  88  50 /   0   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  87  63  91  64 /  10   5  10   5
Pecos...........................  87  56  93  60 /  10  10  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  51  87  55 /   0   0  20   5
Red River.......................  75  46  77  48 /   0   0  20  10
Angel Fire......................  81  37  83  43 /   5   5  20   5
Taos............................  89  49  92  52 /   0   0  10   5
Mora............................  83  51  86  53 /  10   5  20  10
Espanola........................  94  58  99  60 /   5   0  10   5
Santa Fe........................  88  61  92  64 /  10   5  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  93  58  96  63 /  10   5  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  67  97  70 /   5   5   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  66  99  68 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  64 102  63 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  64  99  68 /   0   0   5   5
Belen...........................  97  60 101  59 /   0   0   5  10
Bernalillo......................  96  63 100  67 /   5   0   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  96  60 101  58 /   0   0   5   5
Corrales........................  96  61 100  67 /   0   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  96  60 101  59 /   0   0   5   5
Placitas........................  92  65  97  67 /   5   5   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  94  64  99  68 /   0   0   5   5
Socorro......................... 100  65 103  68 /   0   0   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  62  91  63 /  10   5  10  10
Tijeras.........................  91  60  95  63 /  10   5   5  10
Edgewood........................  90  57  94  59 /  10  10  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  51  95  56 /  10  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  85  57  90  58 /  20  10  10  10
Mountainair.....................  90  59  94  60 /  10   5  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  90  57  93  61 /  10   5  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  94  64  96  67 /  10   5  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  87  58  89  59 /  20  10  30  10
Capulin.........................  85  55  83  56 /   5   5  20  10
Raton...........................  90  55  91  55 /   5   0  20   5
Springer........................  90  55  92  56 /   5   0  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  86  55  89  57 /  20  10  20  10
Clayton.........................  91  61  87  59 /   0   5  10  20
Roy.............................  88  59  90  59 /   5   0  20  20
Conchas.........................  96  64  99  66 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  92  62  96  65 /   0   0  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  95  65  98  66 /   0   0  20  20
Clovis..........................  94  66  99  68 /   0   0  20  40
Portales........................  96  64 100  68 /   0   0  20  40
Fort Sumner.....................  96  65 100  69 /   0   0   5  20
Roswell......................... 101  70 105  74 /   5   0   5  20
Picacho.........................  93  62  98  66 /  20  10  20  10
Elk.............................  90  59  95  63 /  30  20  30   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ219-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42