003
FXUS65 KABQ 282008
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
208 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Today has hot temperatures and a relative minimum in the rain
showers and thunderstorms activity. Tonight a backdoor cold front
arrives increasing storm chances once again in northern NM for
Saturday. Heavy rainfall may lead to more flash flooding, especially
around wildfire burn scars. Sunday and Monday will be active as well
with more locally heavy rainfall over northern and western NM. The
chance for storms will continue Tuesday and Wednesday in central and
eastern NM followed by a possible drier pattern by the end of the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A notable downtick in convection today compared to the last many
days as the westerlies have brought a drier and more stable airmass
over the area. Strong/erratic wind gusts and occasional lightning
are still possible with isolated convection through this evening,
but the burn scar flood threat is very low through Saturday morning.
A backdoor front is still on track to move into northeast NM
Saturday and then progress southwest into the RGV Saturday night
with help from convective cold pooling. This will all be happening
while the upper high to the east extends a ridge axis westward over
NM, replacing the westerlies currently present with fairly light
steering flow. The setup is looking favorable for slow moving and
heavy rain producing storms along the central mountain chain late
Saturday, especially along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos
and adjacent eastern highlands where the NAM is cranking out some
seriously impressive qpf thanks to the moist easterly upslope flow.
The latest GFS is similar with an impressive qpf bullseye in
northern Colfax County going into Saturday evening. Will go ahead
and issue a Flash Flood Watch for Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening for burn scars near Ruidoso/Alto, the HPCC burn
scar, the northeast and far northeast highlands and the
Johnson/Bartlett Mesas. The backdoor front is forecast to create a
gusty east canyon/gap wind into the RGV Saturday night that will be
strongest from Santa Fe south through Albuquerque. Gusts to 45-50mph
are possible through and below Tijeras Canyon into Albuquerque.
Convection may persist all the way to sunrise Sunday morning
along/near the Sangre De Cristos, so the watch may need to be
extended beyond midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

NM has a high chance of continued active weather during next week as
moisture will sit across the region. The pattern that will draw the
moisture across NM is a Bermuda Azores high that will have its
western edge of its center sitting over eastern NM. This will bring
in SW to SE that will draw in moisture from the Gulf of California
and Gulf of Mexico. This moisture for Sunday and Monday will pass
across mainly western and central NM causing rain showers and
thunderstorms. The amount of moisture remains on the high end being
in the top 10% of moisture events for this time of year. So these
storms would be capable of causing copious amounts of rainfall
leading to the risk of flash flooding. The stability of the high
pressure in eastern NM may be able to suppress some storm formation
so it has a lesser chance of seeing rain showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday to Wednesday the high pressure begins to flatten out as a
trough over the NW portions of CONUS deepens and passes eastward.
This trough if it deepens enough may even push into the northern
portions of NM supplanting the high pressure. The major impact from
the shift in the pattern is the ribbon of moisture will be pushed
to the south and east putting it over the central, eastern, and
southern portions of NM. So these area would see continued rain
showers and thunderstorms while NW NM becomes drier. The ribbon of
moisture will still be in the top 10% of moisture events for this
time of year which will allow for heavy rainfall and associated
flood risks. For Thursday and Friday the high pressure over southern
CONUS should reorganize with a new high pressure center forming over
central California and western Nevada. This would put NM on the
eastern edge of this high pressure system bringing a more northerly
wind to the state. These winds would help to push the moisture
further out of NM confining rain showers and thunderstorms to the
southern and eastern portions of the state. The amount of moisture
will also decrease some as drier air works it way in so these storms
should be weaker and produce less rainfall. This would make Thursday
a relative minimum in the rain showers and thunderstorms for next
week. Friday should see the center of the high build and push to the
east centering across NV. This would induce a more E to SE winds
that will allow some moisture to work it way back across NM. This
would lead to more rain showers and thunderstorms from Central NM to
southern and easter NM while NW NM stay on the dry side. The
moisture for Friday seems to be more along the lines of a typical
monsoon and not at the levels seen earlier in the week. So the end
of next week may be the end of the abnormally wet weather and a
return to the more typical monsoon moisture. However the pattern for
later next week is uncertain so it will be subject to change. While
the moisture sits across NM the increased clouds along with rain
showers and thunderstorms should keep temperatures cooler with
valleys highs in the 80s to 90. While the moisture is less then the
temperatures should be higher in the 90s to 100s for the valleys.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with mostly light winds. Isolated convection could impact
western/central TAF sites this afternoon with gusty outflow winds,
but low probabilities of direct hits.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

No critical fire weather conditions are forecast through at least
the next seven days with daily rounds of wetting storms and good to
excellent humidity recovery. Burn scar flooding will be possible
each day, but more likely late Saturday when a backdoor front will
help to boost moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  94  69  91 /   5   5  10  60
Dulce...........................  50  89  56  84 /   5  10  20  70
Cuba............................  56  88  60  84 /   5  20  40  70
Gallup..........................  55  89  60  89 /  10  10  10  60
El Morro........................  56  85  60  84 /  10  40  30  70
Grants..........................  56  89  60  87 /  10  40  30  70
Quemado.........................  57  86  61  87 /  10  50  30  70
Magdalena.......................  63  90  65  87 /  10  40  50  40
Datil...........................  58  86  61  84 /  20  50  40  50
Reserve.........................  57  91  59  91 /  20  50  30  50
Glenwood........................  67  96  69  95 /  10  40  40  40
Chama...........................  49  83  53  78 /   5  20  40  80
Los Alamos......................  60  87  63  81 /   5  40  50  70
Pecos...........................  58  86  59  80 /   0  60  60  60
Cerro/Questa....................  47  82  52  78 /   5  60  60  80
Red River.......................  47  73  50  71 /   5  60  60  80
Angel Fire......................  47  77  50  74 /   0  70  60  70
Taos............................  51  87  58  84 /   0  40  50  70
Mora............................  57  81  54  78 /   0  70  60  60
Espanola........................  60  94  64  89 /   0  30  50  60
Santa Fe........................  60  88  64  82 /   0  40  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  61  91  65  86 /   5  30  50  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  94  69  90 /   5  30  60  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  96  69  92 /   5  20  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  98  69  94 /   5  20  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  96  70  92 /   5  20  40  40
Belen...........................  65  99  68  95 /   5  20  40  30
Bernalillo......................  66  97  69  93 /   5  20  40  50
Bosque Farms....................  63  99  66  94 /   5  20  40  40
Corrales........................  66  97  68  94 /   5  20  40  50
Los Lunas.......................  64  99  66  94 /   5  20  40  40
Placitas........................  65  93  68  88 /   5  20  50  50
Rio Rancho......................  66  96  69  92 /   5  20  40  40
Socorro.........................  69 100  71  96 /  10  20  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  88  63  84 /   5  30  50  50
Tijeras.........................  63  90  65  87 /   5  30  50  50
Edgewood........................  59  90  63  86 /   5  30  60  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  91  60  87 /   5  30  60  40
Clines Corners..................  57  86  58  80 /   0  30  60  40
Mountainair.....................  59  90  62  87 /   5  30  60  30
Gran Quivira....................  59  91  61  87 /   5  30  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  69  95  67  91 /  10  30  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  62  86  59  82 /  10  60  40  30
Capulin.........................  57  80  58  82 /  10  70  70  50
Raton...........................  58  85  58  85 /   5  70  60  50
Springer........................  59  88  60  87 /   5  70  70  50
Las Vegas.......................  58  83  57  79 /   0  60  70  50
Clayton.........................  65  87  63  88 /  10  30  60  30
Roy.............................  62  86  62  84 /   5  60  70  40
Conchas.........................  68  93  67  92 /   5  40  60  20
Santa Rosa......................  66  92  66  88 /   0  30  60  20
Tucumcari.......................  67  96  67  95 /   0  30  60  10
Clovis..........................  71  98  69  94 /   5  30  40  10
Portales........................  70  98  71  94 /   5  20  40  10
Fort Sumner.....................  70  97  71  93 /   5  30  40  10
Roswell.........................  79 103  74  98 /  10  20  20  10
Picacho.........................  70  95  66  90 /  10  30  30  30
Elk.............................  66  92  61  89 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
NMZ214-215-226>229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...11