Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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426 FXUS65 KABQ 150835 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Hotter temperatures and dry weather return Father`s Day weekend as high pressure moves over the region. Southwest winds pick up Sunday with the breeziest winds expected Monday and Tuesday as a storm system moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Moisture increases across eastern NM behind a backdoor front Wednesday resulting in the return of shower and storm chances during the afternoon and evening. These storms look to bring a gusty east canyon wind to Albuquerque Wednesday evening and spread moisture west to the Arizona border come Thursday. This higher moisture will bring diurnal chances for shower and storms favoring the higher terrain late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The Pacific trough is pulling east away from NM and will be replaced with a shortwave ridge today that will slowly transition across the region through Sunday. Pressure heights will be on the uptrend, bringing warming with temperatures climbing above normal areawide by Sunday. A Heat Advisory will likely be required for Chaves County on Sunday and may be needed in the middle RGV as well. PWATs will trend down as a drier airmass overtakes the area through Sunday, but sufficient moisture and instability will persist across eastern NM for isolated late day showers or storms this afternoon. 00Z model solutions hold on to a capping inversion and too much CIN for more significant convective development, especially on Sunday. If the capping inversion were to break on Sunday, severe storms would be possible closer to the TX border. Breezy conditions will develop Sunday afternoon as winds in the lower boundary layer respond to an upper level trough/low moving from the Pacific NW toward the Great Basin. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Southwest upper level winds increase across the region Monday and Tuesday due to an upper level trough moving across the Pacific NW and northern Rockies. Hot temperatures and deep daytime mixing will allow these stronger winds to mix down to the surface with breezy conditions areawide. The strongest winds of 20 to 35 mph during the afternoon will be across west central NM and the northeast highlands and plains. This southwesterly flow will help to mix out the dryline and the higher moisture across the eastern plains east of the boundary Sunday night and Monday night into West Texas by midday resulting in near zero shower and storm chances. Temperatures will be near average across western NM due to the slightly lower upper level heights compared to this weekend while around 5 to 10 degrees above average along and east of the central mountain chain due to the downsloping southwest winds. Roswell might need heat advisories Monday and Tuesday due to temperatures around 105 both days and a major heat risk. Moderate heat risk will exist across the middle and lower RGV and eastern NM Monday and Tuesday. As the upper level trough exits northeast to the northern Great Plains Wednesday morning, it will send a weak backdoor front into far northeast NM. Additionally, the western flank of upper level high pressure over the southern US will expand westward helping to increase southeast return flow of higher moisture across eastern NM. With PWATs increasing to around an inch, this will set the stage for some showers and storms across eastern NM during the afternoon and evening hours with areas along and west of the central mountain chain remaining dry to PWATs below 0.4 inches. The outflow from storms across eastern NM will help send an east canyon wind to the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros Wednesday evening as well as push higher moisture as far west as the Arizona border come Thursday morning. This will also be assisted by the western flank of upper level high pressure moving further west over the desert SW. Beginning Thursday, diurnal showers and storms will favor the higher terrain, thanks to the higher moisture, spreading to lower elevations come the late afternoon and evening hours. Some deeper moisture could also move across southern areas due to a tropical wave moving west across Mexico. Temperatures late week will be near average for western and central NM and slightly below normal across eastern NM. A new upper level high center looks to become established over the desert SW come next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with a couple of exceptions. Short-lived MVFR conditions are likely in scattered storms between KTCC and KROW through 09Z. MVFR cigs are forecast to develop at KLVS early Saturday morning, but will be short- lived. Otherwise, mostly light winds will prevail through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 An upper level ridge will strengthen and shift east across the region through Sunday, bringing the return of hot, dry and unstable conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across western NM by Sunday as southwest winds trend up with an upper level trough/low moving southeast from the Pacific NW to the Great Basin. Stronger southwest winds will materialize Monday, bringing the potential for critical fire weather conditions, as the upper level trough/low continues moving east toward the northern/central Rockies. The main threat area on Monday will be along/west of the central mountain chain and especially west of the Continental Divide, where ERCs are highest. Winds will trend down Tuesday as the upper level trough ejects out of the Rockies, but hot, dry and unstable conditons will persist. Humidity will trend up from mid to late week and winds will trend down as an upper level high builds west into NM and moisture come in from the Gulf and behind a backdoor front. The result will be increasing chances for wetting storms from Wed through Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 56 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 87 43 90 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 86 53 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 92 48 93 47 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 86 52 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 90 49 93 48 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 89 54 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 89 62 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 87 58 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 94 48 93 47 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 98 62 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 81 45 84 45 / 10 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 84 62 89 61 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 86 55 90 57 / 10 5 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 47 85 49 / 10 5 5 0 Red River....................... 73 44 77 46 / 20 10 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 78 37 82 41 / 20 10 5 0 Taos............................ 85 49 91 50 / 10 5 0 0 Mora............................ 83 49 87 51 / 20 10 5 0 Espanola........................ 92 57 96 58 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 86 60 92 60 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 58 95 58 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 67 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 65 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 64 101 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 65 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 96 60 100 60 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 94 64 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 95 59 100 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 95 62 100 63 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 95 59 100 60 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 91 65 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 94 65 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 98 67 102 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 88 61 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 88 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 52 95 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 84 56 90 56 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 88 58 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 89 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 93 66 96 65 / 5 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 86 60 89 60 / 20 10 5 0 Capulin......................... 84 55 89 58 / 20 20 10 0 Raton........................... 87 52 93 55 / 20 20 5 0 Springer........................ 89 53 95 55 / 20 10 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 84 54 90 55 / 10 10 5 0 Clayton......................... 88 62 95 66 / 5 10 10 0 Roy............................. 85 59 92 61 / 10 10 10 5 Conchas......................... 93 63 99 66 / 5 10 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 90 62 97 63 / 5 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 92 63 99 67 / 10 10 10 0 Clovis.......................... 92 65 97 67 / 20 20 10 5 Portales........................ 93 66 98 68 / 20 20 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 93 66 100 68 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 100 70 105 71 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 94 63 99 63 / 10 5 5 0 Elk............................. 94 61 96 61 / 20 5 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...11