381
FXUS65 KABQ 200818
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
218 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A storm system over southern California will move east today and
across the region Saturday, bringing breezy to locally windy
conditions and chances for storms focusing across eastern NM.
Some storms may become severe and produce large hail and damaging
winds on Saturday across the eastern plains. The storm system will
also bring cooler conditions this weekend with below normal daytime
temperatures, especially across northeast NM. Quieter weather is
forecast Sunday and Monday, but a disturbance will bring chances
for showers and storms back to the area on Tuesday. A warming and
drying trend is forecast from mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A dynamic weather pattern will unfold today into Saturday as a deep
low pressure system slowly moves from the southern CA coast toward
the Four Corners areas. With a prominent upper high over the Big
Bend and southeastern TX, the encroaching low will lead to a
strengthening gradient over NM while moisture is drawn northward
into the eastern half of the state. Return flow at the surface from
the Gulf of Mexico will overtake more of eastern NM to accomplish
this with PWATs surging up to 1.0 to 1.4 inches while dry, breezy
south southwest winds prevail in the western half of the state
today. The warm, moist advection will lead to the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the late morning through
the evening, mainly east of a Ruidoso to Las Vegas to Raton line.
While no formal convective risk is outlined for eastern NM for
today, a few strong to severe cells cannot be ruled out given the
healthy speed and directional shear (35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk
shear), but the modest instability and lack of deep upper forcing
will be the limiters that keep today from showcasing more severe
storms. Showers and storms could persist and regenerate over east
central NM through the late night hours tonight into Saturday
morning as the upper low makes its way into AZ. Considerations for a
Flood Watch were made for today over the Sacramento mountain
wildfire burn scars, and while some initiation is expected over the
this area, the fast storm motions and limited QPF has tipped the
confidence lower for any flooding concerns today.

The upper low will then lift northeastward over the Four Corners by
mid afternoon Saturday with a 100 kt jet at 300 mb progged to nose
its way into NM. This will certainly add more upward forcing along
with increased speed shear over eastern NM where high moisture will
be retained. A Slight risk for severe storms over eastern NM has
already been outlined from SPC, and this looks reasonable with
higher MUCAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg advertised by the HREF.
Heavier QPF is also advertised by many CAMs over the east central to
northeastern zones Saturday, potentially putting the HPCC wildfire
burn scar at risk of flooding. Precipitation associated with the low
itself would still largely remain west of the forecast area through
late Saturday, keeping the focus on eastern NM. There will also be
stronger wind field of south southeasterly winds in eastern NM and
south southwesterly winds in western zones. An area of confluence
will be juxtaposed over the Rio Grande valley, and could lead to
windy conditions with gusts of 40 to 45 mph, as the southerly flow
will be parallel to the valley and less inhibited by terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The upper low will continue to fill and lift slowly northeast
across southern CO Saturday night, with convection across
northeast NM gradually diminishing. The threat for severe storms
will persist through the evening hours across northeast NM. A
backdoor cold front will slide southwest to the central mountain
chain Sunday as the upper low ejects east out of the southern
Rockies, with minimal chances for showers and isolated thunder
continuing across eastern NM. Temperatures will trend down more
behind the backdoor front on Sunday and be below normal,
especially across northeast NM where high temperatures could be up
to 20 degrees below normal. The backdoor front will result in a
brief gusty east canyon wind into the Rio Grande and Upper
Tularosa Valleys Sunday evening, but well below advisory
threshold. Warmer conditions are forecast Monday ahead of an
upstream trough dropping southeast out of the Pacific NW and
northern Great Basin. There continues to be significant spread
among the medium range model solutions with the handling of this
upper air feature and the overall synoptic weather pattern beyond
Tuesday, so lower forecast confidence at this time. However,
there is sufficient agreement on Tuesday that a backdoor front
will interact with the approaching upper level trough/low to bring
chances for showers and storms back to the forecast with at least
some, albeit low, potential for burn scar flooding. Probabilities
favor a warming/drying trend from mid through late next week with
temperatures rising above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and central
New Mexico with just a few mid to high level clouds. A deep low
pressure system moving into southern California will draw up
moisture into eastern New Mexico through the late morning and
afternoon hours Friday, leading to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some of which may turn strong with hail, brief
heavy downpours and gusty downburst winds. These showers and
storms will develop mostly along and east of a KRTN-KLVS-KSRR
line with dry and VFR conditions persisting to the west.
Prevailing winds will be breezy out of the south (directions
between 210 and 160) with gusts periodically hitting 20 to 30 kt
through the late morning, afternoon and early evening. Showers and
storms may persist through much of Friday night in east central
New Mexico.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Moisture will be drawn into eastern NM today and Saturday, leading
to higher humidity along with multiplying showers, thunderstorms and
increasing chances for soaking rainfall. Western areas of NM will
essentially remain dry and breezy during this time with stronger
south winds found in the Rio Grande valley Saturday afternoon. This
could overlay some critically low humidity and gusts of 35 to 45 mph
over the valley, south of Albuquerque through Socorro Saturday
afternoon when rapid fire spread could be possible. The areal
coverage of these critical conditions on Saturday is not all that
large relative to the whole Fire Weather Zone 106, so no Red Flag
statement is planned at this time. While some lingering isolated
showers or storms cannot be ruled out in far east central NM Sunday,
a mostly dry start to next week is expected with cooler temperatures
and more relaxed winds both Sunday and Monday. A chance for a
reinforcement of cooler air and moisture/showers/storms arrives in
eastern NM Tuesday into Wednesday, but the forecast details beyond
this time frame remain muddled due to large spread and differences
among forecast models.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  51  75  45 /   0   5  40  10
Dulce...........................  80  43  75  35 /  10  20  70  30
Cuba............................  80  50  73  41 /  10  20  40  10
Gallup..........................  82  41  70  37 /   0   0  30   0
El Morro........................  78  42  69  40 /   5   0  20   0
Grants..........................  83  43  74  37 /   5   5  20   0
Quemado.........................  79  43  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
Magdalena.......................  83  54  77  46 /   5  20  20   0
Datil...........................  79  44  71  39 /   5   5  10   0
Reserve.........................  81  43  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  85  53  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  73  43  67  34 /  10  20  80  30
Los Alamos......................  78  56  72  47 /  20  30  50  20
Pecos...........................  78  52  70  43 /  40  40  60  30
Cerro/Questa....................  75  47  67  39 /  20  20  80  50
Red River.......................  68  40  59  34 /  20  20  80  60
Angel Fire......................  71  38  63  29 /  30  20  80  60
Taos............................  79  47  71  37 /  20  30  60  40
Mora............................  76  47  65  38 /  40  40  70  50
Espanola........................  86  56  79  45 /  20  30  50  20
Santa Fe........................  81  58  75  46 /  30  40  60  30
Santa Fe Airport................  85  56  79  44 /  20  40  50  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  60  81  53 /  20  30  40  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  62  83  51 /  10  30  30   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  57  85  47 /  10  30  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  60  83  50 /  10  30  30  10
Belen...........................  90  59  85  48 /  10  20  20   0
Bernalillo......................  88  58  83  48 /  10  30  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  89  56  85  45 /  10  20  20   5
Corrales........................  88  58  83  48 /  10  30  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  89  57  85  47 /  10  20  20   5
Placitas........................  86  58  81  49 /  20  30  40  10
Rio Rancho......................  87  59  82  49 /  10  30  30  10
Socorro.........................  92  62  86  52 /  10  20  20   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  80  53  76  46 /  20  30  40  10
Tijeras.........................  82  56  79  47 /  20  30  40  10
Edgewood........................  81  53  78  43 /  30  30  50  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  83  51  78  39 /  40  40  50  10
Clines Corners..................  77  52  72  43 /  50  50  60  20
Mountainair.....................  81  55  78  44 /  30  30  40   5
Gran Quivira....................  81  56  78  44 /  40  40  40   0
Carrizozo.......................  85  62  81  51 /  50  40  40   0
Ruidoso.........................  78  55  74  47 /  70  40  40   0
Capulin.........................  80  53  64  42 /  40  20  90  80
Raton...........................  82  52  67  43 /  30  20  80  60
Springer........................  83  52  68  45 /  40  30  80  60
Las Vegas.......................  78  51  68  43 /  50  40  70  40
Clayton.........................  85  60  68  51 /  50  30  80  80
Roy.............................  78  56  66  49 /  50  40  80  60
Conchas.........................  83  60  73  54 /  60  60  80  60
Santa Rosa......................  81  59  75  53 /  70  60  70  40
Tucumcari.......................  87  61  76  55 /  50  50  80  60
Clovis..........................  92  65  81  58 /  30  30  80  50
Portales........................  93  65  83  60 /  30  20  70  50
Fort Sumner.....................  84  61  79  57 /  50  60  70  40
Roswell.........................  96  70  89  61 /  40  30  50  10
Picacho.........................  87  61  82  52 /  70  40  40   5
Elk.............................  85  58  82  49 /  60  40  40   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52