Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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532 FXUS65 KABQ 142116 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 316 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Cooler temperatures are forecast tonight. Thunderstorms on the far eastern plains are forecast to produce a half inch to around 1 inch of rain across much of the far eastern plains this evening into the late night hours. A warming trend will occur Saturday and Sunday, then it will remain quite warm over eastern areas Monday and Tuesday as western areas trend cooler. There will be an increased risk of heat-related illness in Roswell Sunday through Tuesday as the high temperature varies from 105 to 106 degrees from day to day. Fire weather concerns are also expected across much of the eastern plains Monday and Tuesday due to breezy-to- windy conditions and very low humidities. The mid-to-latter half of the coming week looks cooler with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico spreads northwestward across New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The current big picture features a 586dm H5 low opening to a trough over northern AZ this afternoon. Abundant mid to upper level moisture has advected northward ahead of it into the middle swath of NM. This morning`s 12Z sounding at ABQ featured a healthy 0.70" PWAT, and higher moisture lay further east over NM where southerly return flow has brought Td`s into the low 50s to near 60. So far, light to moderate rain has accompanied showers through the Rio Grande Valley with isolated embedded thunderstorms focused along a convergent surface boundary oriented N-S in the highlands from near Las Vegas to Ruidoso. These individual cells will continue to track north to northeast as the overall line and area of showers and thunderstorms migrates eastward toward the TX line later this evening. The surface wind field has been a conundrum this morning as well, notably along and west of the central mountain chain with northerly winds focusing through the middle Rio Grande Valley despite southerly flow ahead of the upper low. These northerly winds will become more erratic in direction and speed as showers and a few storms move through this afternoon. Hazards with afternoon and early evening convection will focus mainly through northeastern NM in the form of locally heavy rainfall over burn scars (HPCC) and a marginal risk for a storm or two to become severe. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and hail up to quarters in size are possible. Less robust convection is expected further south, although a couple of storms producing locally heavy rainfall did skirt past the Blue 2 and McBride burn scars late morning. Showers and a few storms will try to push back southeastward over east-central NM late evening to near midnight before overall rain chances finally die down heading into Saturday morning. The overnight period sees clearing skies west to east over the forecast area with abundant low level moisture loitering over eastern and central NM. Cooling temperatures, abundant low level moisture and lowering wind speeds will allow for fog potential mainly over the highlands of Torrance and Guadalupe Counties. Temperatures rise over most areas Saturday with the clearing conditions. Thunderstorm chances will be near zero most areas except closer to the CO border along the high terrain and along the TX line where the higher low-level moisture will still reside. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 With a ridge of high pressure overhead, the warming trend will continue through Sunday when high temperatures will peak around 4-11 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. Southwest winds will become breezy to windy over eastern areas Monday and Tuesday as a longwave trough deepens over the western US strengthening the flow aloft over NM and inducing a roughly 985 mb surface low in eastern CO. There will be fire weather concerns over much of eastern NM both days as high temperatures remain a few to several degrees above normal with very low humidities. High temperatures varying from 105-106 degrees in Roswell Sunday through Tuesday will increase the risk of developing heat-related illness. Meanwhile, high temperatures will trend closer to 30-year averages over western areas Monday and Tuesday. The mid to latter half of the work week will feature increasing shower and thunderstorm chances and cooler temperatures as the trough on the west coast and an easterly wave passing to the south of New Mexico induce moist southeasterly return flow across the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Moisture streaming northward ahead of an upper low centered over north-central AZ is producing scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms along the central swath of NM. The surface wind field is erratic to say the least with southerly/southeasterly winds focused along and east of the central mountain chain, northerly to northwesterly winds within the middle Rio Grande Valley (despite southerly flow aloft) and easterly winds along and west of the Continental Divide. Wind direction changes will be squirrely and erratic within the middle Rio Grande Valley over the next 6 to 9 hours and amds look likely at KSAF-KABQ-KAEG for this. Meanwhile, thunderstorm activity will be more behaved in terms of predictability along and east of the central mountain chain, steadily progressing eastward toward the TX line this evening. There is lesser confidence for an isolated thunderstorm embedded within shower activity within the middle Rio Grande Valley, hence the maintenance of the PROB30 at KABQ and KAEG. Clearing conditions will move in west to east from AZ late today, progressing to the Rio Grande Valley near midnight or 06Z and later into the eastern plains Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Relatively cooler and wetter weather pushing through central NM this afternoon and will advance through the eastern plains fire weather zones late today and evening, exiting into TX overnight. Drier weather will push into western NM late today amid increasing southwesterly flow as an upper low crosses northern NM. This area of drier air will advance through central NM Saturday with abundant low level moisture holding onto the eastern plains zones. The drier air and lower humidity will steadily advance eastward each day heading into next week, reaching the TX border by Monday. Temperatures will rise back to near or above normal as well, with southwesterly winds also taking a step up in strength each day. Critical fire weather concerns reach a peak Monday and Tuesday as a result, with a lee- side surface low enhancing the southwesterly wind potential through the highlands and adjacent plains in eastern NM. The limiting factor here will be how today`s rainfall and moisture will help green up the fine fuels in this area. Thereafter, a backdoor cold front will replenish moisture through the eastern plains ending the critical fire weather threat there Thursday and Friday. Some of this moisture will try to push westward into the Rio Grande Valley by Friday, but western NM looks to remain mostly dry at this time to end the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 54 93 57 95 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 40 89 43 91 / 20 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 49 87 54 90 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 45 92 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 50 87 52 87 / 5 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 46 91 50 93 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 51 89 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 56 89 63 92 / 10 0 5 0 Datil........................... 54 87 60 89 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 46 95 48 94 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 62 99 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 42 82 47 85 / 20 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 56 85 63 89 / 40 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 53 86 58 89 / 50 10 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 81 49 84 / 30 10 5 5 Red River....................... 42 75 46 78 / 30 10 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 38 79 40 82 / 40 10 5 5 Taos............................ 46 86 50 90 / 30 10 5 0 Mora............................ 46 84 51 87 / 40 10 5 5 Espanola........................ 53 93 57 96 / 30 5 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 56 87 61 90 / 60 5 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 89 60 94 / 50 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 92 68 96 / 40 0 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 59 95 65 98 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 96 60 100 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 95 66 98 / 40 0 5 0 Belen........................... 56 96 55 100 / 30 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 96 64 99 / 40 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 55 95 54 99 / 30 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 59 96 64 99 / 40 0 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 56 96 56 99 / 30 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 59 91 66 95 / 40 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 59 95 65 98 / 40 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 62 98 66 102 / 20 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 86 62 89 / 40 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 56 88 62 92 / 40 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 51 89 56 93 / 50 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 90 53 94 / 50 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 84 56 89 / 50 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 52 88 57 92 / 40 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 53 89 58 93 / 50 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 62 94 66 97 / 40 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 56 87 59 89 / 30 10 0 5 Capulin......................... 51 83 54 88 / 60 20 10 10 Raton........................... 51 87 52 93 / 40 20 10 5 Springer........................ 52 89 53 94 / 50 20 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 51 84 55 89 / 50 10 10 5 Clayton......................... 59 89 62 95 / 70 20 10 5 Roy............................. 55 85 58 92 / 60 10 10 5 Conchas......................... 60 92 62 99 / 60 10 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 59 90 61 95 / 60 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 91 64 98 / 70 10 10 0 Clovis.......................... 64 92 66 97 / 60 10 20 0 Portales........................ 64 95 66 98 / 50 10 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 62 93 66 99 / 60 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 71 101 71 105 / 40 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 61 94 63 99 / 30 20 5 5 Elk............................. 57 95 61 98 / 30 10 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...24