Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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669 FXUS65 KABQ 161440 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 840 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 838 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Slightly updated PoPs for the rest of today and this evening given current activity and latest hi res guidance. Forecast remains on track. Anand && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail across northwest New Mexico today and across central and eastern New Mexico on Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, though these efficient rain producing storms will be moving quickly to the northeast. Quieter weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, though a few breezes are likely. Severe weather may return for Friday across eastern New Mexico. Slightly cooler temperatures expected for the weekend so it should finally start feeling more like fall. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A batch of showers associated with a subtle shortwave are currently trekking across central NM this morning, while a few stronger storms can be seen on radar in southeastern AZ. These storms are associated with a SW/NE oriented jet streak currently at the base of a seasonably deep trough currently over central CA. The trough and associated jet streak will nudge eastward today, providing the forcing for numerous showers and storms in western and central NM. A slug of moisture out ahead of the trough will bring moisture levels up to as much as 200% of normal this afternoon in the northwest corner of the state, which is above the 90th percentile for climatology. While the forcing and moisture are certainly in place, instability is a bit of a question mark. Models are only showing slightly negative LIs (-1C to -3C) and modest CAPE (100-400J/kg). Shear is quite strong so long lasting storms will have no problem transferring gusty winds down to the surface, but heavy rainfall rates will be rather brief. Training storms will be required for flash flooding and those will be most likely along and just west of the Cont. Divide this afternoon. In addition, several storms will likely produce small hail, but confidence in severe hail is low due to the lack of instability as previously mentioned. Rounds of showers and storms are expected to continue through the overnight, but the exact locations of these showers is somewhat uncertain so expect potentially significant changes to PoPs in future forecast packages. Hi-res models are picking up on a cluster of showers and storms over the HPCC burn scar so nighttime flash flooding will be a concern. The trough will eject eastward into The Great Basin Tuesday. A cold front at the base of the trough will advect drier air in from the west, quickly shutting off precipitation chances and cooling temps down a few degrees. Storms will focus along the leading edge of the front Tuesday as dry air out ahead of the front destabilizes the atmosphere in eastern NM. Severe storms are possible as far west as the Rio Grande Valley in the late morning/early afternoon, but confidence is greater further east. Storm mode in this environment is a bit tricky. While supercells are certainly possible in this sheared environment, hi-res models suggest storms may cluster together into a line as they trek from the central mountain chain eastward to the TX border. These storms will be moving very quickly, helping to once again mitigate the flash flood threat. A quick 1"-2" is possible in many areas, but 3"+ appears unlikely (<10% chance anywhere) per HREF guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A line or broken line of thunderstorms will continue to track eastward as the trough axis swings across NM Tuesday evening. A few strong or severe storms will be likely through mid evening then much of the precipitation should decrease in intensity as it shifts into Texas. Quiet conditions are expected after midnight. Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry and quiet. The dryline across eastern NM will mix out each afternoon as southwesterly flow aloft mixes to the surface. A stray thunderstorm is not out of the question right near the NM/TX border Thursday, but confidence is low that this will occur. Instead breezy southwesterly winds are expected each afternoon. Temperatures will be a little below normal across the west and a bit above normal across eastern NM. Meanwhile, the next upper level low pressure system will dive southward along the CA coast on Wednesday and shift eastward over the southern Great Basin on Thursday. This low will continue to track along the UT/AZ border on Friday. As it does so, strong low level southerly flow will allow Gulf moisture to return to eastern NM, setting up a dryline just east of the Central Mountain Chain. Strong lift ahead of the low will aid in the development of thunderstorms along the dryline. Attm, it looks like there will be more speed shear than directional shear which may favor splitting storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible, though damaging winds appear more likely given fast storm motions (on the order of 35-40 mph) and modest instability. The upper low will weaken as it continues to track eastward Friday night and Saturday across Colorado. A few thunderstorms will be possible across eastern NM on Saturday, but overall the low should pass with little additional fanfare. A cold front will pass through NM, dropping temperatures a few degrees for the weekend, but most areas will still be within a few degrees of normal for late September. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Showers and storms will continue to increase in coverage late this morning through the afternoon in the western two-thirds of the forecast area. A south to southwest breeze with occasional gusts will be present across most of the area this afternoon and showers and storms will help to mix down even stronger gusts. Damaging wind gusts to 60KT may accompany storms in the northwest. The coverage of lightning is somewhat uncertain, but will be most likely along and west of the Continental Divide between 16Z and 02Z where better instability is in place. Showers are expected to linger through the night, particularly in north- central areas. VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period, but MVFR conditions are likely briefly under heavier showers and storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Numerous showers and storms are expected today along and west of the central mountain chain with isolated showers and storms to the east. Gusty winds will accompany most showers and storms and a few across the northwest could produce damaging outflow wind gusts and small hail. Breezy southwest to south winds will prevail across the area today, turning more westerly tomorrow as a cold front crosses the state from west to east. Locally windy conditions may develop just east of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon out ahead of the said cold front, although the greater concern will be strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and large hail. These strong storms are possible as far west as the Rio Grande Valley, but confidence is greater further east. Most of the area will see wetting rainfall today and/or Tuesday and a few locations could see over 1" after repeated rounds of showers and storms. Dryline storms are possible in far eastern NM mid to late week as southwesterlies remain entrenched across the state out ahead of another Pacific trough. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 57 75 44 / 80 50 60 0 Dulce........................... 66 48 67 34 / 90 70 70 0 Cuba............................ 73 52 71 42 / 70 50 50 0 Gallup.......................... 75 52 72 37 / 60 20 40 0 El Morro........................ 72 51 70 40 / 80 30 40 0 Grants.......................... 75 50 75 38 / 60 30 40 0 Quemado......................... 75 52 73 41 / 50 20 30 0 Magdalena....................... 78 56 77 49 / 40 30 20 0 Datil........................... 74 50 74 42 / 60 20 20 0 Reserve......................... 77 53 75 42 / 50 30 40 0 Glenwood........................ 80 60 78 52 / 50 30 30 0 Chama........................... 62 46 60 34 / 100 80 70 5 Los Alamos...................... 74 55 70 50 / 60 60 70 10 Pecos........................... 75 53 69 46 / 70 50 70 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 70 50 67 41 / 70 60 60 10 Red River....................... 62 45 59 37 / 80 60 60 20 Angel Fire...................... 66 44 64 31 / 70 50 60 20 Taos............................ 74 50 71 39 / 70 60 60 10 Mora............................ 73 49 68 39 / 60 50 70 20 Espanola........................ 81 57 78 47 / 60 60 60 10 Santa Fe........................ 76 56 71 48 / 60 60 60 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 56 76 46 / 60 60 50 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 84 62 80 55 / 50 60 50 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 85 61 82 56 / 50 60 40 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 60 84 52 / 50 50 30 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 62 82 53 / 50 60 40 5 Belen........................... 87 60 85 51 / 40 40 30 0 Bernalillo...................... 86 60 83 52 / 60 60 40 5 Bosque Farms.................... 86 59 84 49 / 40 50 30 5 Corrales........................ 86 61 83 52 / 60 60 40 5 Los Lunas....................... 86 60 84 51 / 40 50 30 0 Placitas........................ 83 59 80 52 / 60 60 40 5 Rio Rancho...................... 85 61 82 52 / 60 60 40 5 Socorro......................... 87 62 87 54 / 30 30 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 55 73 47 / 50 60 50 5 Tijeras......................... 80 57 77 49 / 50 60 50 5 Edgewood........................ 81 54 77 45 / 50 50 50 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 83 52 79 42 / 40 40 50 10 Clines Corners.................. 78 53 74 46 / 40 40 50 10 Mountainair..................... 81 55 77 47 / 30 40 30 5 Gran Quivira.................... 81 56 77 48 / 30 30 30 5 Carrizozo....................... 84 61 80 55 / 20 20 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 77 55 73 51 / 20 20 40 10 Capulin......................... 76 54 72 48 / 20 20 50 30 Raton........................... 79 54 75 44 / 40 30 50 20 Springer........................ 82 55 77 45 / 40 30 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 78 53 73 44 / 40 50 70 20 Clayton......................... 85 60 82 56 / 5 10 30 50 Roy............................. 81 58 76 50 / 20 40 60 40 Conchas......................... 89 62 84 55 / 10 40 60 40 Santa Rosa...................... 85 61 81 54 / 10 40 50 20 Tucumcari....................... 90 62 86 58 / 5 20 40 50 Clovis.......................... 90 62 88 61 / 0 5 40 60 Portales........................ 90 62 89 60 / 0 5 30 60 Fort Sumner..................... 88 63 86 57 / 5 20 50 30 Roswell......................... 91 68 91 64 / 5 10 30 20 Picacho......................... 85 60 84 56 / 10 10 30 10 Elk............................. 84 57 83 53 / 10 10 30 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ214- 215. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...16