Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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454 FXUS65 KABQ 312100 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 300 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 232 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Storms, some strong to severe, will be possible through the evening across portions of eastern New Mexico, diminishing before midnight. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible tomorrow afternoon in eastern New Mexico. Drier conditions will prevail on Sunday with western locales seeing a slight cooldown, while eastern areas see several degrees of warming. A warming trend will take hold areawide through midweek. Showers and thunderstorms may return to portions of northern and central New Mexico Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 232 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will persist through the evening until tapering off around midnight. Moisture which will have surged eastward into TX will retreat back into New Mexico overnight, creating a modest density gradient between the RGV and east slopes of the central mts. Another canyon gap wind will be possible tonight across the central valleys, including ABQ, though not likely to the same extent as last night`s. Tomorrow will bring the reprise of severe weather across eastern NM, with an expansion in coverage expected. Pertubations in the upper level flow will position themselves over the state as a shortwave trough bears down on AZ. A wide swath of CAPE between 3000 and 5000 J/kg will combine with 35 kt 0-6km shear, creating the ingredients necessary for robust convection in the afternoon. The shear is the limiting factor, with weak mid-level flow possibly limiting the ability for storms to become and stay organized. Storms will track eastward into the TX through the afternoon and evening, with the threat diminishing around midnight Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 232 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Much drier air will intrude into the state Sunday as a the baggy shortwave trough pushes across the Desert Southwest. A modest lee- side sfc low will deepen across eastern CO, giving rise to breezy conditions. The southwesterly component of the wind will help to enhance compressional warming, bringing daytime across eastern locales up a few to several degrees compared to Saturday`s readings. Dry and hot weather will be the tune moving into early next week before a weak backdoor front descends into the eastern plains Tuesday night. This will give those locales a few degrees of cooling on Wednesday. Subtropical moisture enters the arena on Thursday, allowing for shower and thunderstorm chances to trend up. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Isold to sct tstms expected to initiate along and east of the central mts this aftn. Ely cell motions will bring activity into the ern plains through the evening hours, moving into TX aft 01/02Z. Some storms may become strong to severe. Convective outflow will give rise to gusty ely canyon winds at KABQ aft 01/06Z, where gusts up to 25 kts will be possible. Moisture pushing back into NM will result in the potential for MVFR/IFR cigs in and around KTCC and KROW overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Afternoon showers and thunderstorms tomorrow across the northern and central mountains will be capable of typical hazards including cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty and erratic winds, and brief downpours. Storms will initiate off the high terrain before pushing eastward, where they will have the potential of becoming strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. Much drier air will move into the area on Sunday, with widespread single digit relative humidity values expected to persist for durations longer than 6 hrs for several zones. This will combine with locally gusty west to southwest winds creating elevated to near- critical for much of northern and central New Mexico. Critical fire weather conditions will be localized to portions of the northeast and central highlands and their adjacent plains. High pressure aloft will strengthen moving into next week, with light to locally breezy winds and very low relative humidity prevailing. Subtropical moisture reenters the forecast area on Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms trending up. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 50 91 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 40 85 40 83 / 0 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 46 85 47 83 / 0 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 41 87 40 84 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 47 82 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 43 87 43 84 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 47 86 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 49 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 40 89 39 87 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 56 93 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 41 78 41 77 / 0 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 56 82 56 82 / 5 10 5 0 Pecos........................... 49 84 49 85 / 10 20 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 77 43 78 / 10 20 5 0 Red River....................... 39 71 40 72 / 10 30 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 34 75 35 77 / 20 30 10 0 Taos............................ 43 83 44 85 / 5 10 5 0 Mora............................ 44 76 45 81 / 20 30 10 5 Espanola........................ 53 89 53 90 / 5 10 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 54 84 54 84 / 10 20 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 88 52 88 / 5 10 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 89 60 89 / 5 5 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 93 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 54 93 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 57 92 58 92 / 0 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 53 93 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 55 92 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 53 93 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 57 89 59 88 / 5 5 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 57 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 59 96 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 83 55 83 / 5 5 5 0 Tijeras......................... 53 86 55 85 / 5 5 5 0 Edgewood........................ 50 86 52 86 / 5 5 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 88 47 88 / 5 10 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 82 50 83 / 10 10 10 0 Mountainair..................... 50 86 54 85 / 5 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 48 87 50 86 / 5 5 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 57 90 57 89 / 0 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 53 84 53 84 / 0 20 10 5 Capulin......................... 47 77 49 84 / 50 40 20 10 Raton........................... 46 81 46 88 / 30 30 10 5 Springer........................ 48 82 48 90 / 30 30 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 49 79 48 84 / 20 30 20 5 Clayton......................... 53 83 57 89 / 40 30 30 10 Roy............................. 51 80 53 88 / 30 30 20 5 Conchas......................... 57 89 58 95 / 30 20 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 57 86 57 92 / 20 20 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 57 88 59 95 / 30 20 20 10 Clovis.......................... 60 88 59 94 / 30 30 30 10 Portales........................ 59 89 58 95 / 30 30 30 10 Fort Sumner..................... 59 90 59 96 / 30 20 20 10 Roswell......................... 65 96 64 102 / 20 20 20 10 Picacho......................... 57 88 56 93 / 5 30 10 10 Elk............................. 53 88 54 91 / 0 30 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12