948
FXUS65 KABQ 022318 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
518 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Hotter temperatures and dry west and northwest flow is expected
early this week. Moderate heat risk is possible across the Rio
Grande Valley and eastern plains with Roswell possibly seeing high
heat risk. A backdoor front cools temperatures a little across
eastern areas Wednesday. The heat peaks on Thursday as high pressure
intensifies over the state. Albuquerque and Farmington could see
their first 100 degree day of the year and Roswell could see
temperatures in the upper 100s. Some showers and storms possible in
the higher terrain Friday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The bowling ball of a dry air intrusion has shifted from AZ into NM
this afternoon, bringing relative humidity down into the single
digits, save for locales along the eastern border. This will work to
effectively squash any convective dreams this evening into tonight
outside of a rogue storm briefly flirting with NM along the CO or TX
border. Flow aloft will turn more zonal overnight, with breezy west
to southwest winds relaxing after sunset. Clear skies with
temperatures near to a few degrees cooler than last night`s readings
will dominate. Moderated conditions expected tomorrow as a regime of
northwest flow aloft sets up. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two of Sunday`s readings with light winds and mostly sunny skies.
The parched atmosphere will prevail once again, though not nearly to
the extent of Sunday. Still, widespread single digit relative
humidity will require the attention of those working outdoors to
maintain appropriate hydration as the dry conditions combine with
above normal temperatures. Minimum temps trend warmer Monday night,
settling around an increase of 2F to 5F compared to Sunday night,
with increasing high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Dry northwest flow will be over the state Tuesday along with
building upper level heights. This will allow temperatures to
increase a couple of degrees areawide with the hottest temperatures
across eastern NM due to downslope and compressional west to
northwest winds. Low to mid 90s are expected across the upper and
middle RGV, upper 90s to near 100 across the lower RGV and northeast
and east central plains and around 105 in Roswell. This will result
in moderate heat risk across the middle and lower RGV and most of
the eastern plains and highlands with high heat possible across the
Chaves County plains including Roswell. A heat advisory might be
needed for Roswell Tuesday afternoon. A backdoor front moves into
eastern NM Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning increasing
surface moisture briefly. However, deep daytime mixing thanks to
high pressure strengthening over the state mixes it out a bit. The
backdoor front and the slightly higher moisture will help to cool
highs around 3 to 5 degrees compared to Tuesday across the eastern
plains (still mid 90s to near 100 for Roswell). Meanwhile across
western and central NM, highs increase a few degrees compared to
Tuesday due to the strengthening upper level high. Low to mid 90s
will be common with near 100 along the RGV in Albuquerque and in the
lower RGV including Socorro. The heat looks to peak Thursday as the
upper level high strengthens to 593 dm. Mid 90s to near 100 will be
common. ABQ and Farmington could see their first 100 degree day of
the year. Roswell could get to the upper 100s. Heat Advisories might
be needed for ABQ and Roswell due to the increasing probability of
high heat risk in those two locales. Some mid level moisture does
get under the ridge and this could result in a late day dry shower
or storm across the higher terrain.

The upper high weakens and shifts east a little heading into Friday
and next weekend due to an upper low moving northeast over Baja CA
from the Pacific. Temperatures will cool down gradually as a result.
The upper low could bring up some subtropical moisture to result in
some showers and storms mostly over the higher terrain. However, the
question will be moisture availability. The deterministic GFS has
slightly better coverage in the higher terrain due to dewpoints in
the 40s. However, the ECMWF and the ensemble solutions have lower
storm coverage due to dewpoints in the 20s and 30s across western
and central NM and near 40 in eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 406 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, with one potential exception. Outflow from storms over
the TX Panhandle this evening is modeled to move west into the far
eastern plains of NM and may result in low stratus/fog overnight
into early Monday morning. KTCC would be the TAF site potentially
impacted, but forecast confidence is too low to include anything
other than VFR. Otherwise, gusty westerly winds will gradually
subside this evening and are forecast to decrease Monday
afternoon/evening relative to today`s.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Hot and dry conditions will prevail through the first half of the
week areawide. Widespread single digit relative humidity will return
Monday afternoon alongside lighter winds. Humidity improves slightly
on Tuesday, bringing most zones into the low double digits amongst
locally breezy winds. A ridge of high pressure builds overhead on
Wednesday, bringing additional warming. Well above normal
temperatures will be possible Thursday, with several locales aiming
to hit Heat Advisory criteria. Minimum RH will improve Wednesday and
Thursday across the central mountains and eastward, with the west
still struggling to reach above 15 percent. The aforementioned
moisture out east may lead to the development of showers and
thunderstorms (and subsequent lightning starts) across the central
mountains, with increasing coverage potentially through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  89  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  83  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  46  83  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  41  85  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  44  80  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  40  85  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  53  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  48  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  39  87  41  91 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  54  93  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  77  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  55  82  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  50  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  40  70  43  74 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  34  76  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  42  84  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  45  81  51  84 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  52  90  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  54  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  52  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  88  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  90  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  93  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  91  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  55  93  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  57  91  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  53  93  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  56  92  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  93  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  58  87  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  58  90  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  58  96  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  55  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  52  84  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  87  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  50  83  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  52  85  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  51  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  58  89  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  54  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  49  83  53  84 /   0   5   0   5
Raton...........................  47  88  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  47  89  52  90 /   0   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  49  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  56  90  59  91 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  52  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  56  95  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  57  91  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  57  95  60 100 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  60  96  62  99 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  58  98  60 100 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  58  96  61 100 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  64 102  66 105 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  61  93  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  57  90  59  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11