Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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081 FXUS65 KABQ 141727 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1127 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A slight break from the heat is expected today as a storm system brings showers and thunderstorms to much of the state. A few severe storms are possible across northeast and east central New Mexico. Hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Repeated rounds of rainfall may result in burn scar flooding across northern New Mexico. Drier air will filter into the area this weekend, limiting thunderstorm chances, but allowing the heat to return. Hot temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday before temperatures trend downward once again. Breezy to windy conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday then precipitation chances will increase mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cooler and wetter day is expected today, especially across northern NM, due to the passage of a upper low/ trough across the CO/NM border. A few light showers will be possible this morning, mainly along and west of the Continental Divide. Daytime heating will allow for an increase in showers and storms come midday across north central NM and the central mountain chain with quick motion to the east and northeast spreading to the northeast highlands and plains later this afternoon and early evening. A few storms along the surface trough axis along and east of the central mountain chain could become strong to severe with large hail among the initial discrete cells turning more into a damaging wind threat as the storms grow upscale and become more linear. In terms of rainfall, generally up to 0.25 inches is possible west of the central mountain chain. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains with overall qpf amounts of around 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Will forego issuing a Flash Flood Watch for the HPCC burn scar due to overall amounts under half an inch and the quick storm motion of 15 to 25 kts. However, if the burn scar receives multiple rounds of storms this afternoon, burn scar flash flooding concerns would become higher. With the cloud cover and storms, temperatures along and north of I-40 will be around 10 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Thursday. Storms across far northeast NM look to exit into the Texas Panhandle after sunset. However, some activity looks to linger well into the night across far east central NM (Quay, Curry and Roosevelt counties) as the trough axis moves east into the Great Plains. CLearer skies are expected across western and central NM due to drier mid level air moving in on the backside of the upper level trough. With that and the possible moister low levels, cannot rule out some localized areas of fog in the northwest and west valleys Saturday morning around sunrise. A drier and hotter Saturday is expected as weak ridging and drier west flow moves over the region. Temperatures across western and central NM will be around 6 to 12 degrees warmer compared to Friday. In terms of precipitation, can`t rule out a few stray late day showers and storms over the higher terrain of the central mountain chain and along the Texas border due to upper level northwest flow in the wake of Friday`s system interacting with higher low level moisture mixing east into Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Any storms that developed during the afternoon on Saturday should quickly diminish or move into Texas during the evening hours. Thereafter, a weak upper level ridge will build back in over NM which will allow temperatures on Sunday to ramp back up. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for the Roswell area at a minimum, but a few other locales will see triple digit heat. A few breezes will also be noted in the afternoon. On Monday, the upper level ridge will shift eastward an upper low moves over the PacNW resulting in weak southwesterly flow over NM. Temperatures may drop a degree or two across western NM as H5 heights fall slightly, but much of eastern NM will still be flirting with triple digit heat, and the Roswell area will again top 105 degrees. Thus, another Heat Advisory will be possible for that area. Strong mixing combined with a deepening surface low will allow surface winds to pick up as well. Breezy to windy conditions are expected areawide, though will stay at sub- advisory levels. Temperatures will cool a few degrees more on Tuesday, but otherwise will be similar to Monday. Low level moisture will be diurnally sloshing back and forth across eastern NM Saturday night through Tuesday as well, but attm, it does not look like much in the way of thunderstorm development will occur across eastern NM Sunday through Tuesday afternoon. This may change on Wednesday. Some models are hinting that a cold front will slide into eastern NM while others are suggesting the moisture will become deep enough and push westward enough for storms to form on the Central Mountain Chain. Whichever forcing it may be, it does appear that precipitation chances will trend upward across eastern NM. The moisture across eastern NM will push much farther westward Wednesday night, perhaps to the AZ border. This will set the stage for a potentially more active Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Moisture streaming northward ahead of an upper low centered over north-central AZ is producing scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms along the central swath of NM. The surface wind field is erratic to say the least with southerly/southeasterly winds focused along and east of the central mountain chain, northerly to northwesterly winds within the middle Rio Grande Valley (despite southerly flow aloft) and easterly winds along and west of the Continental Divide. Wind direction changes will be squirrely and erratic within the middle Rio Grande Valley over the next 6 to 9 hours and amds look likely at KSAF-KABQ-KAEG for this. Meanwhile, thunderstorm activity will be more behaved in terms of predictability along and east of the central mountain chain, steadily progressing eastward toward the TX line this evening. There is lesser confidence for an isolated thunderstorm embedded within shower activity within the middle Rio Grande Valley, hence the maintenance of the PROB30 at KABQ and KAEG. Clearing conditions will move in west to east from AZ late today, progressing to the Rio Grande Valley near midnight or 06Z and later into the eastern plains Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cooler and wetter Friday is expected with measurable rainfall along and north of Interstate 40. Heavier rainfall of around a quarter to half and inch is expected across the Sangre de Cristos eastward into the adjacent highlands and plains. Breezy and locally windy conditions are expected as the system moves through. Areas in western NM that received dry lightning the last few weeks will need to be watched for fire starts. Hotter temperatures and unstable conditions return this weekend but winds remain relatively light. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected early to mid next week, but an upper level low moving into the western US increases southwest winds and lowers minimum relative humidity values. Near critical fire weather conditions for most and locally critical fire weather conditions across west central and northeast NM look to peak Monday with generally elevated fire weather conditions Sunday and Tuesday. Gulf moisture looks to enter eastern NM Wednesday spreading further west late next week helping to increase shower and storm chances and limiting fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 82 54 94 56 / 60 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 75 41 88 45 / 70 20 0 0 Cuba............................ 75 49 87 53 / 80 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 83 46 94 48 / 70 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 79 50 89 53 / 60 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 79 47 91 49 / 80 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 86 51 91 54 / 50 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 82 58 91 62 / 50 10 0 5 Datil........................... 83 53 89 57 / 60 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 89 48 93 47 / 40 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 95 62 96 58 / 30 0 0 0 Chama........................... 68 42 81 46 / 90 20 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 77 56 86 64 / 70 40 5 0 Pecos........................... 81 52 87 56 / 70 50 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 45 82 49 / 70 30 10 5 Red River....................... 71 42 73 45 / 80 30 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 72 38 79 35 / 80 40 10 5 Taos............................ 79 46 87 48 / 60 30 10 5 Mora............................ 80 46 84 49 / 80 40 10 5 Espanola........................ 84 54 92 58 / 60 30 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 81 55 88 60 / 50 60 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 83 54 91 57 / 50 50 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 62 92 65 / 50 40 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 61 93 66 / 40 40 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 88 60 95 63 / 40 40 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 60 94 64 / 40 40 0 5 Belen........................... 89 57 97 61 / 40 30 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 88 59 95 64 / 40 40 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 88 56 96 59 / 40 30 0 0 Corrales........................ 88 58 94 62 / 40 40 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 88 56 96 59 / 40 30 0 5 Placitas........................ 84 59 93 63 / 40 40 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 86 59 94 66 / 40 40 0 0 Socorro......................... 94 63 97 66 / 30 20 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 55 87 61 / 50 40 0 0 Tijeras......................... 82 56 90 62 / 50 40 0 0 Edgewood........................ 83 53 90 59 / 50 50 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 50 91 51 / 50 50 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 80 52 87 56 / 70 50 5 0 Mountainair..................... 85 53 89 59 / 40 40 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 86 53 90 57 / 50 50 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 92 62 92 66 / 40 40 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 84 56 85 61 / 60 30 10 0 Capulin......................... 82 51 85 55 / 80 60 20 10 Raton........................... 84 50 89 51 / 80 40 10 10 Springer........................ 86 52 90 53 / 80 50 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 80 51 86 53 / 80 50 10 10 Clayton......................... 90 60 91 62 / 60 70 20 10 Roy............................. 86 56 89 58 / 80 60 10 10 Conchas......................... 95 61 96 63 / 70 60 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 90 60 94 63 / 60 60 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 93 61 97 63 / 50 70 10 10 Clovis.......................... 94 64 94 66 / 20 60 10 20 Portales........................ 95 64 95 65 / 20 50 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 95 63 95 66 / 40 60 10 10 Roswell......................... 100 71 101 69 / 20 40 10 5 Picacho......................... 94 62 94 63 / 60 30 20 5 Elk............................. 94 58 93 61 / 50 30 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...24