552
FXUS65 KABQ 230800
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
200 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Deep and rich atmospheric moisture remains in place over New
Mexico, and this will lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development today with even more numerous storms expected over the
southwestern mountains of the state. Storms will be slow moving,
so any storms that develop will be capable of dropping locally
heavy rainfall. Temperatures will warm up to the 70`s, 80`s and
90`s today. Similar conditions are forecast on Monday, but
temperatures will warm up a few degrees more. By Tuesday and
Wednesday many places will reach the 90`s and low 100`s with
scattered storms still possible, decreasing some on Tuesday, but
increasing into late Wednesday. Additional moisture will keep more
storms going on Thursday with a typical monsoon pattern
persisting Friday and next weekend as temperatures remain warm to
hot and scattered storms redevelop each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

An early season monsoon burst of moisture remains over NM today and
through the short term period. Last night`s 1.08" PWAT was a drop off
from the prior morning`s daily record of 1.32". However, high
confidence for numerical model guidance PWATs of 1.10" to 1.30"
remains through much of this week. This means any storms developing
each afternoon will have plenty of fuel to work with in producing
localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The question each day
will be where storms initiate and their subsequent storm motions.
There are a few lingering light overnight showers across parts of
northern and central NM that will continue to dissipate through the
morning hours. Alongside broken to overcast cloud cover, this will
limit heating early on in the afternoon. Numerical model guidance
and HiRes CAMs are picking up on this delaying the initial CI for
today`s afternoon thunderstorm activity, but not by much. Storms
will favor the high terrain of western and northern NM. While there
will be scattered to numerous thunderstorm chances over the western
and northern mountains, there still remains an fair chance at
isolated to scattered storms developing over the south-central
mountains as a result of the upper high continuing to push westward
over TX and into southeastern NM. Models are also latching onto a
surface convergent boundary setting up WSW to ENE over east-central
NM. A few storms are likely to set up along this boundary this
afternoon as well. There will be notable 1500 to 2500 J/kg of
SBCAPE, but low bulk shear of 15-25kts. A rogue storm or two could
pulse into the strong to severe mode and produce a brief burst of
hail and strong winds in this area of east-central NM. Storm motions
will generally be slow but still pushing northward through western
and south-central NM and more west to east from the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Given the higher precipitation chances and proximity of
slow moving storms initiating over the already wet Hermits Peak/Calf
Canyon burn scar, the Flood Watch for flash flooding remains over
that area for this afternoon. Will forego one for the south-central
mountains given their lower chances for afternoon storms today, but
just one storm can make all the difference there given the
susceptibility of the South Fork burn scar.

Monday sees the upper ridge progress further westward over southern
NM. Suppression beneath the upper high abates precipitation chances
further over the south-central mountains and southeastern NM in
general. Slow moving storms will again favor initiation over the
western and northern mountains. Storm motions will be slowest over
southwestern mountains in the Gila NF and a bit faster west to east
off the Sangre de Cristo`s and northern mountains over the adjacent
central and northeastern highlands. Flash flooding will again likely
be a threat over the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar Monday
afternoon as a result.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The upper high strengthens more concentrically over NM on Tuesday
with 500 mb heights rising to about 594 decameters. There will
still be moisture present with PWATs generally ranging from around
1.0 to 1.2 inches in western zones upwards of 1.6 inches in
eastern zones, and since the moisture is a bit earlier than
climatology would suggest, the western zones would be running
about 200 percent of normal Tuesday afternoon. Extended
temperature guidance had been running quite hot with the
strengthening high, seemingly a bit overcooked for as much
moisture would be in place, but the NAM/MET is now reaching into
the Tuesday time frame and is pulling high temperature guidance
down a few degrees. This seems reasonable, and have leaned this
way for the temperature forecast for Tuesday. Blended guidance
(NBM) is still quite generous with likely POPs advertised over the
southwestern mountains and generally isolated to scattered
coverage elsewhere. This was subdued some, given the suppressing
and subsident effects of the high and some likely mid level
inversions that may accompany.

The high will weaken a bit going into Wednesday, and this may only
allow a degree or two of temperature relief while ample moisture
remains in place, even expanding over more of the northern zones.
This will keep scattered coverage of storms in many zones and even
more numerous cells in the Gila and southwestern mountains again.
Similar to Tuesday, lots of mid to upper 90`s and even low 100`s
will increase the risk for heat-related illness Wednesday
afternoon.

Into Thursday the high will weaken and sag into Chihuahua, Mexico
while an upper low moves over the northwestern states near the
Canadian border (ID/MT and BC/Alberta). This will introduce a hint
of faint westerlies into NM with some drying possible over
northern zones. However, a subtropical plume would still be intact
over most remaining zones with better storm coverage expected in
the absence of strong subsidence. The weak speed max aloft (60 kt
at 300 mb) will also vent any storms with some speed shear with
height, potentially leading to stronger and more organized cells.

It becomes more difficult to find any blatant signals or triggers
for changes going into Friday and the weekend, but the westerlies
would relax on Friday as the high remains malformed. The Bermuda
high looks to be reestablished into Saturday and Sunday which could
offer enough of a southerly component to the flow to keep a tap of
subtropical moisture into NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Convective debris cloud cover remains over much of the forecast
area this hour and will only make small advancements in clearing
tonight into Sunday morning. Outside of a few remaining light
showers overnight, another round of convective scattered
thunderstorms is forecast to initiate over the western and
northern high terrain Sunday afternoon. Storm motions will be
slow, but generally south to north over western NM and west to
east from the central mountain chain over the adjacent highlands.
Guidance is also picking up on some thunderstorm activity along a
convergent surface boundary draped WSW-ENE over the central
plains near and along the I-40 corridor. Most TAF terminals have a
PROB30 for thunderstorms to account for this afternoon convective
activity with a TEMPO at KLVS where the highest confidence is for
a more direct impact. The highest confidence for drier weather is
KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A burst of monsoon moisture remains over the forecast area abating
fire weather concerns. However, the threat of flash flooding from
thunderstorms remains. Afternoon thunderstorms will favor initiation
over the high terrain each day, with slower storm motions generally
south of I-40 and more west to east north of I-40. Any storm will be
capable of producing localized heavy rainfall, threatening flash
flooding over recent burn scars. Otherwise, the high atmospheric
moisture content will favor good to excellent overnight humidity
recoveries. The upper ridge will steadily move from TX today over NM
by Tuesday and Wednesday before breaking down and flattening to end
next work week. Prevailing westerlies begin to return for the end of
next week as a result.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  64  89  63 /  20  10  10   0
Dulce...........................  82  48  83  50 /  20  20  20   5
Cuba............................  79  58  83  58 /  30  20  30  20
Gallup..........................  80  54  84  55 /  40  30  30  20
El Morro........................  76  57  81  56 /  40  40  60  30
Grants..........................  80  55  83  58 /  30  40  60  20
Quemado.........................  77  58  82  57 /  60  40  70  40
Magdalena.......................  80  64  84  64 /  60  40  60  20
Datil...........................  77  60  80  59 /  60  40  80  30
Reserve.........................  84  55  87  56 /  60  40  70  40
Glenwood........................  90  68  92  67 /  50  40  60  30
Chama...........................  76  49  77  50 /  30  20  30  20
Los Alamos......................  78  63  81  65 /  30  20  30  20
Pecos...........................  78  60  84  60 /  40  20  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  77  50  78  51 /  30  10  40  20
Red River.......................  70  48  72  46 /  30  10  40  20
Angel Fire......................  74  45  76  41 /  30  10  40  20
Taos............................  81  55  83  56 /  20  10  30  20
Mora............................  77  53  82  54 /  40  20  40  20
Espanola........................  85  61  87  63 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  79  63  83  64 /  30  20  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  82  62  86  62 /  30  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  68  89  68 /  30  20  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  68  91  70 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  68  93  63 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  68  91  69 /  10  20  20  20
Belen...........................  90  65  94  66 /  20  30  30  20
Bernalillo......................  87  68  92  67 /  20  20  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  89  65  93  62 /  20  20  30  20
Corrales........................  87  68  92  66 /  20  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  89  66  93  64 /  20  20  30  20
Placitas........................  83  67  88  66 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  86  68  91  69 /  10  20  20  20
Socorro.........................  91  69  94  71 /  30  30  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  79  63  84  64 /  30  20  30  20
Tijeras.........................  82  64  87  65 /  30  20  30  20
Edgewood........................  82  61  89  62 /  30  20  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  84  58  90  59 /  30  20  30  20
Clines Corners..................  79  59  85  60 /  40  30  20  20
Mountainair.....................  81  60  87  63 /  50  30  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  83  61  88  63 /  50  20  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  86  67  91  70 /  40  20  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  79  60  83  58 /  50  20  30  20
Capulin.........................  82  59  87  58 /  30  20  20  10
Raton...........................  85  57  90  59 /  30  10  30  10
Springer........................  86  59  92  60 /  30  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  79  58  85  59 /  40  20  30  20
Clayton.........................  90  67  94  67 /  20  20  10  10
Roy.............................  84  64  90  63 /  30  20  20  10
Conchas.........................  91  68  97  69 /  40  30  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  88  65  93  68 /  40  30  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  92  69  97  71 /  40  30   5  10
Clovis..........................  95  68  95  70 /  10  10   0   5
Portales........................  96  68  96  71 /  10  10   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  95  68  96  71 /  20  10   0  10
Roswell.........................  99  71 100  75 /   0   5   0   5
Picacho.........................  88  64  93  67 /  20  10  20  10
Elk.............................  86  60  91  64 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214-
215-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24