Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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685 FXUS65 KABQ 131120 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Hot temperatures are expected today. Those working or recreating outdoors should take plenty of breaks in the shade or air conditioning, wear sunscreen and drink plenty of water. Watch for the signs of heat illness. Cooler temperatures and the return of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday. Locally heavy rainfall could pose a risk of flash flooding on the burn scars across the Northern Mountains. The system bringing the rainfall exits quickly Friday night, then warmer and drier conditions will prevail into early next week. Breezy to windy conditions are also likely Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The hottest day of the year to date is expected for many locations across New Mexico with the state under a strong 596 dam upper level ridge. Lower elevations will reach the mid to upper 90s due to the mostly clear skies for most of the day. 100s are expected across the Northwest Plateau, including Farmington, the middle and lower RGV, including ABQ and Socorro, and all of the eastern plains. Mid 100s are possible near the river in the ABQ Metro and forecasted at Socorro and Roswell. With temperatures getting to near the 100 degree mark and the experimental HeatRisk showing areas of major impacts (level 3 out of 4) in parts of the Santa Fe Metro, the Heat Advisory has been expanded to include the capital city. The upper level ridge will do an impressive job in limiting storm chances, with just some high base cumulus across the mountain ranges in the afternoon. As always it is a good reminder to take proper heat precautions today. Limit time outdoors in the afternoon. However, if you do have to be outdoors this afternoon, make sure you stay hydrated and take frequent shade breaks. Also, always check the backseat for your kids and pets so they are not left behind in a hot vehicle. There will be limited chances for some sprinkles and dry lightning this evening across western NM due to increasing mid level moisture ahead of an upper low moving into the desert SW. Additionally, Clayton could see some gusty outflow winds late this evening from some isolated storms in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle due to a weakness on the northeast side of the upper level ridge. The upper low in southern CA weakens and opens up as it moves into Arizona tonight with the increasing moisture ahead of it resulting in a thickening and lowering of clouds across western NM. This will keep temperatures very mild overnight due to the clouds acting as a blanket and preventing the heat of the day from escaping quickly. The upper low opens up into a trough as it races northeast towards the Four Corners come midday Friday with generally light precipitation across western and central areas due to quick motion. Better chances for wetting rainfall are expected across north central and northeast NM midday Friday through Friday evening as the trough axis races east along the CO/NM border and interacts with some higher moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Have held off on a Flash Flood Watch for the HPCC burn scar due to QPF amounts dropping in recent runs and the progressive northeast and east motion of activity due to the quick motion of the shortwave trough axis. With the clouds and precipitation, temperatures on Friday will be much cooler compared to today, especially for locations along and north of I40. The break from the heat for these locations will only be temporary though... && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The upper level trough will continue to slide eastward across southern CO and northern NM Friday night. The focus for precipitation will shift across northeast and east central NM in the evening before diminishing prior to sunrise Saturday as the trough axis shifts over the Texas Panhandle. Residual moisture in the presence of a weak boundary across northeast NM may be a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, much drier conditions will prevail as a stout mid level dry slot punches eastward across the state. The lack of cloud cover and precipitation will allow temperatures to rebound as well, with most locations near or just above normal for mid June. Temperatures will continue to trend upward on Sunday while precipitation chances trend downward. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed for the Roswell area as afternoon temps may top out around 106F or so. A similar story is expected on Monday, that is, hot and dry. However, winds will pick up as well as an upper level low moves over the PacNW allowing southwest winds to strengthen over NM. A surface low is also expected to deepen to near 987-990 mb across southeast CO which will help to increase wind speeds as well. Tuesday may be a few degrees cooler as heights lower slightly, but it will still be hot, dry and breezy. Thereafter, all eyes will be on a tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico. Southeasterly return flow starting Tuesday night and continuing through mid week will increase moisture across NM and should slightly increase precipitation chances by Wednesday and moreso Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure will be overhead resulting in relatively light winds and very limited storm development in the afternoon. Some cumulus buildups will occur over the mountain ranges this afternoon. Isolated storms with gusty and erratic winds could develop east of KCAO and KROW during the evening hours, but confidence in this materializing is low. Can`t rule out a few high based dry storms this evening across the high terrain of western NM. Clouds thicken and lower across western areas Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. Some showers could develop in the vicinity of KFMN and KGUP right at the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Hot and unstable conditions are expected areawide today due to high pressure overhead. Increasing mid level moisture this evening ahead of an upper low will result in a low threat for some dry lightning across the high terrain of western NM that could lead to future fire starts. The upper low will open up and race across the New Mexico and Colorado border Friday bringing showers and storms across northern and parts of central NM. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains look to pick up the higher rainfall amounts of around 0.25 to 0.5 inches with lighter amounts for other locations. Drier air and breezy conditions work into far southwest areas Friday afternoon and this could result in some elevated fire weather conditions. Hot and unstable conditions return areawide this weekend along with increasing southwest breezes come early next week due to an upper level low moving into the Pacific NW. This will result in near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions for most areas outside of far eastern NM early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 100 64 82 52 / 0 10 30 0 Dulce........................... 94 50 77 42 / 0 0 40 10 Cuba............................ 93 57 77 49 / 0 10 60 10 Gallup.......................... 96 55 81 46 / 5 20 40 0 El Morro........................ 92 57 78 49 / 10 30 50 5 Grants.......................... 95 56 79 46 / 10 20 50 5 Quemado......................... 92 58 86 52 / 10 30 40 0 Magdalena....................... 96 65 82 58 / 0 10 50 10 Datil........................... 93 61 83 55 / 10 20 40 5 Reserve......................... 95 55 89 46 / 10 30 30 0 Glenwood........................ 101 69 95 58 / 5 20 10 0 Chama........................... 87 50 73 43 / 0 0 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 91 65 79 57 / 0 0 70 30 Pecos........................... 92 59 81 52 / 0 5 70 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 52 78 46 / 0 0 70 30 Red River....................... 79 48 72 42 / 0 0 80 40 Angel Fire...................... 84 42 74 38 / 0 0 70 40 Taos............................ 94 55 82 47 / 0 0 60 30 Mora............................ 90 53 81 47 / 0 0 80 40 Espanola........................ 98 62 87 55 / 0 0 60 30 Santa Fe........................ 96 64 82 56 / 0 5 60 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 99 63 85 54 / 0 0 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 100 69 88 61 / 0 5 50 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 102 69 89 62 / 0 5 40 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 104 68 91 61 / 0 5 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 102 69 88 61 / 0 5 40 20 Belen........................... 105 66 91 58 / 0 10 40 20 Bernalillo...................... 103 68 90 60 / 0 5 50 20 Bosque Farms.................... 104 65 91 57 / 0 5 40 20 Corrales........................ 102 67 90 59 / 0 5 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 104 65 91 58 / 0 10 40 20 Placitas........................ 100 68 86 59 / 0 5 50 20 Rio Rancho...................... 102 69 88 61 / 0 5 40 20 Socorro......................... 104 71 94 63 / 0 10 40 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 94 64 81 56 / 0 5 50 30 Tijeras......................... 97 65 84 57 / 0 5 50 30 Edgewood........................ 97 62 86 54 / 0 0 50 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 98 57 87 50 / 0 5 50 30 Clines Corners.................. 93 59 81 52 / 0 5 60 40 Mountainair..................... 96 62 86 55 / 0 5 50 30 Gran Quivira.................... 97 62 88 54 / 0 10 50 30 Carrizozo....................... 99 67 93 63 / 0 10 40 30 Ruidoso......................... 89 62 86 56 / 10 10 60 30 Capulin......................... 94 57 82 52 / 5 5 60 50 Raton........................... 98 57 85 51 / 0 0 70 30 Springer........................ 100 57 86 52 / 0 0 60 40 Las Vegas....................... 94 57 81 52 / 0 0 70 50 Clayton......................... 101 65 91 59 / 10 10 40 50 Roy............................. 98 62 86 56 / 5 5 60 60 Conchas......................... 105 67 94 60 / 0 5 40 60 Santa Rosa...................... 101 66 90 59 / 0 0 50 60 Tucumcari....................... 102 67 94 61 / 0 5 30 60 Clovis.......................... 100 68 95 64 / 0 5 10 60 Portales........................ 101 68 96 64 / 0 5 10 60 Fort Sumner..................... 102 69 96 63 / 0 0 30 60 Roswell......................... 107 73 101 70 / 0 0 20 30 Picacho......................... 100 66 94 61 / 5 5 40 30 Elk............................. 95 64 94 58 / 10 5 40 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-209-218>220-225-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...71