Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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174 FXUS65 KABQ 160513 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1113 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Warmer and somewhat drier air is starting to work into New Mexico from the west, and temperatures are considerably higher than yesterday in most northern and central parts of the state. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop through the early evening will be sparse and found in very far eastern parts of New Mexico. Temperatures will be even hotter on Sunday with readings rising close to record daily high values in some locations. Temperatures will still be hot on Monday, but will reduce by a couple degrees in most locations. Breezy to windy conditions will also start to develop in the afternoons on Sunday and more-so on Monday. Conditions will still be warm to hot on Tuesday and Wednesday, but cooler air and more moisture will be working into New Mexico from the east by late Wednesday and Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 An upper level ridge of high pressure has moved over the western half of the state while low-level moisture remaining from yesterday`s upper low crossing remains over most areas. Td`s range from near 40 along and west of the Continental Divide to 50s in central NM to near 60F along the TX border. Fair weather cumulus has begun to crop over the high terrain of central and western NM, evident of this lower level moisture beginning to be scoured out by drier westerly to southwesterly flow moving in. Any late afternoon convection will favor a sharpening dry line feature over far eastern NM however, most likely Curry and Roosevelt Counties by 5pm to 6pm. Any of these cells has the potential to briefly become severe producing large hail and severe winds before it tracks into TX. Some of the hi-res CAMs are showing the current batch of cumulus over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso developing into pulsy short storm cells, and there is a slight chance a storm or two could develop from this before 7pm MDT. If so, an outflow gust would be possible into western Chaves County to Roswell. After a calm night heading into Sunday morning, heat will be the main concern Sunday afternoon. Dry southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen with a troughing pattern moving into the western CONUS. This will scour out low level moisture further, especially across western NM and into the Rio Grande Valley. Southerly return flow will keep low-level moisture lingering longer across the eastern plains of NM, but some of this dry air will try to push into Chaves County and Roswell. High temperatures will be in the 90s to low 100s for all lower elevation areas of northern and central NM Sunday afternoon. The question is whether the ABQ Metro and Roswell will see highs reach their respective Heat Advisory thresholds. This will depend on how much moisture in these valley locations can be scoured out by the afternoon. Kept the forecast favoring these drier scenarios allowing highs to creep up a few more degrees, compared to the NAM MOS guidance which holds onto moisture longer and is subsequently a few degrees cooler. Forecast high temperatures are still borderline Heat Advisory and given the uncertainty regarding the moisture scouring out, will let the overnight shift give one more look at it. Otherwise, Sunday afternoon`s forecast may also feature a few storms developing along a sharpening dry line feature over far northeastern NM and Union County near Clayton. Any storm that may develop here will track east to northeast toward CO and OK. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The pattern on Monday will be characterized by relatively strong southwesterly flow over NM as an upper level low crosses ID and weakens as it moves into MT. A lee-side surface low is also modeled over eastern CO that will provide enough of a surface gradient for breezy to windy conditions. A very slight reduction in heights may keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler, but still within 3 to 6 degrees of record highs in a few locations Monday afternoon. Monday`s northwestern U.S. wave will eject into Canada with another dropping into Alberta upstream. The southwesterlies over NM will reduce in speed some, but still remain relatively strong. At the surface, the lee-side surface low looks to get overtaken by a cold front sliding down the plains and just touching the northeastern corner of NM by early evening. This will keep breezy to locally windy conditions going over NM, particularly in eastern areas during the day. By the evening and overnight, the aforementioned front will move into more of the northeastern quadrant of NM, spawning a few showers and thunderstorms. The backdoor front will overtake more of eastern NM on Wednesday, perhaps even going west of the Rio Grande by the afternoon. The front will moisten the east and moderate temperatures in its wake while fueling showers and thunderstorms. At this time the southwesterlies aloft will weaken with just a gentle upstream trough noted near the west coast. Surface winds may veer more southeasterly in central and eastern NM on Thursday, keeping moisture advection at work. This could even produce widespread low stratus clouds early Thursday morning that keep temperatures from warming as quickly in the eastern half of the state. This might even stabilize the boundary layer too much for storm development Thursday afternoon as the GFS is advertising, but the leading (westernmost) edge of the moisture near the Continental Divide may still be an area of opportunity for convective initiation. Southerly flow would look to keep deeper moisture in place over NM, at least in the eastern half Friday into Saturday with some potential spillover past the Rio Grande toward the Continental Divide, but QPF is still advertised to be quite low during these days. For now, isolated to scattered POPs are in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with a couple of potential exceptions. Patchy low stratus/fog may develop overnight and bring MVFR conditions closer the TX border, potentially impacting KROW and KTCC. Low probability of impacting those terminals. Another round of storms near the TX border Sunday afternoon/evening may impact KTCC, but low probability on that scenario as well. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will develop across western NM Sunday afternoon and gusts to between 20-30kts will be common. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Increasing fire weather potential through Tuesday as drier southwesterly flow ticks up each day. Wind and humidity will be the limiting factor Sunday as low-level moisture embedded within southerly return flow holds onto the eastern plains. Drier southwesterly flow advances through eastern NM Monday bringing area wide critical humidity below 15 percent. While breezy conditions will be present most areas, the strongest winds will focus through the northeastern highlands and plains, aided by a deepening lee-side low over eastern CO. This area, and west-central NM will be the areas for potential critical fire weather conditions. However, recent rainfall across northeastern NM will bring ERCs into question for Monday. Tuesday`s fire weather potential has trended down since yesterday, thanks to lower wind potential. However, elevated conditions will be present most areas in the afternoon given the continued dry southwesterly flow regime. A strong cold front backing through eastern NM brings a sharp change to the weather pattern. Cooler temperatures and replenished low level moisture coupled with the northeasterly to easterly wind shift will bring an end to critical fire weather concerns across eastern NM. Chances for afternoon thunderstorms developing along the central mountain chain also return Wednesday afternoon and evening. A strong east canyon gap wind also looks likely at Santa Fe and ABQ sometime Wednesday. Convection Wednesday will aid in pushing moisture further west to the Continental Divide and the AZ border Thursday. No fire weather concerns by this point given the abundant moisture, but chances for afternoon thunderstorms should increase notably. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 57 95 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 42 90 42 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 53 90 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 47 92 45 88 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 52 89 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 50 93 47 89 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 55 91 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 62 93 60 92 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 59 90 55 86 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 47 94 45 89 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 58 97 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 47 84 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 63 89 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 58 90 57 88 / 0 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 47 77 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 40 81 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 49 90 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 50 87 50 84 / 0 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 56 96 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 91 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 95 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 96 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 99 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 101 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 99 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 55 100 57 99 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 63 100 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 54 100 56 98 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 64 99 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 55 100 58 98 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 95 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 99 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 67 102 63 101 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 63 92 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 56 93 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 94 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 57 90 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 57 92 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 58 93 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 65 96 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 58 89 58 88 / 5 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 53 89 57 88 / 20 10 0 0 Raton........................... 52 93 55 92 / 10 5 0 0 Springer........................ 52 95 56 94 / 10 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 89 54 88 / 5 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 62 95 66 94 / 20 20 0 0 Roy............................. 58 92 61 92 / 10 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 63 99 67 99 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 97 63 96 / 5 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 65 99 67 98 / 10 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 66 97 67 96 / 20 5 5 0 Portales........................ 66 98 67 98 / 20 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 100 67 100 / 10 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 71 105 72 105 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 99 62 98 / 10 5 0 0 Elk............................. 60 96 60 94 / 5 5 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...11