Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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480 FXUS65 KABQ 040542 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1142 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The heat will be the story this week with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible late in the week. The hottest temperatures of the year are expected on Thursday, with much of the forecast area seeing moderate to major heat risk. Temperatures will decrease Friday but will remain well above average. Chances for afternoon thunderstorms will increase Wednesday across the central mountains, expanding in coverage to most of the area`s high terrain on Thursday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A rather quiet day is noted across the CWFA with a few afternoon breezes and near/above normal temps. A fairly narrow band of high clouds continue to drift across east central and south central NM, and are expected to depart the southeast zones by late afternoon or early evening. Satellite imagery is already showing cirrus invading the Four Corners region once again as the next shortwave advances through the Great Basin. This feature will propagate east-southeast tonight and bring lowering cloud decks as the bulk of the moisture remains north of the CO border. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will enter the far northeast plains late (or near daybreak), potentially enhanced by convection in eastern CO. This boundary will move south Tuesday into Tuesday night across the eastern plains. The sensible weather for Tuesday will remain rather quiet as the surface winds will be out of the northwest in western/central NM, and more north-northeast in the plains behind the boundary. Some gusty speeds are likely favored from the Four Corners area to the central highlands, as typical in northwest flow patterns. Some of the convective-allowing models suggest a few updrafts or sprinkles along the boundary across northeast NM, but no appreciable QPF is expected. High temps will remain above average for most areas, and in fact, could approach Heat Advisory criteria at Roswell. The NBM places the probability for a record near 20 percent. Expect higher boundary layer moisture to claim a notable amount of real estate in the ern plains as the feature migrates west-southwest Tuesday night. The risk for significant canyon winds appears minimal at this time. DPorter && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A stout ridge of high pressure takes shape over the Desert Southwest on Wednesday as a low pressure system lingers off the coast of the Baja California. The dance between these two features will dictate the weather throughout the long term as they slowly meander eastward. The weak boundary that dipped into the eastern plains on Tuesday night will allow for modest cooling across the central and southeast plains, while the rest of the area sees a few to several degrees of warming. The upper level high pressure finds its center Wednesday night, strengthening to 594 dam by Thursday afternoon. This rise in pressure heights will turn up the heat areawide rather effectively Thursday afternoon, bringing moderate to major heat risk to portions of northern and central NM. Departures still exist between guidance, leading to a decent spread for high temperatures, and as such, did favor the middle ground for Thursday`s forecast highs. Even with this, many locales look to eye the century mark for the first time this year, including ABQ. In addition, many locales flirt with or look to break record temperatures and should the hotter solution dominate, Heat Advisories may be needed in future updates. An influx of modest moisture may bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms into play Wednesday afternoon through the weekend. Storms Wednesday afternoon will favor the central mts, expanding in coverage to the northern and central high terrain and its adjacent lowlands on Thursday and potentially persisting through the weekend. The aforementioned modest moisture does little to bolster Tds and given the strength of the upper high, did decide to trend PoPs down areawide through the end of the week. The ridge will begin breaking down on Saturday as the loitering low in the Baja begins trekking eastward. This will allow a slight reprieve to the overbearing heat on Saturday with a more widespread cooldown possible on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 An upper level trough will eject eastward across the Front Range tonight and allow surface winds to turn northwest across NM thru sunrise. LLWS may impact the RGV overnight however speeds are not strong enough to include in TAFs. Wind gusts of 20 to 30kt will be common from KFMN to the KABQ area and KCQC after 1pm Tuesday. A northerly wind shift will impact northeast NM with a couple high- based SHRA possible from near KCAO to KTCC between 2pm and 6pm. Otherwise, VFR is likely at all terminals the next 24 hrs with periods of thick cirrus. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Poor overnight recoveries are likely for most areas excluding the northern high terrain for tonight. A weak disturbance will track across the region, and this will favor gusty northwest winds from the Four Corners to the central highlands (Clines Corners) in its wake on Tuesday. No significant coverage of critical fire weather conditions are expected. Meanwhile, there will be a backdoor front sliding through the eastern plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, bringing higher moisture and humidity in it wake. Strong high pressure aloft will build over the Land of Enchantment for the midweek period. This will keep the winds in check. Moisture will increase beneath this ridge, and will allow for an increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage starting Wednesday. Expect a mixture of wet and dry cells across the central mountains, expanding to include the Upper Gila region on Thursday. Gusty/erratic outflow winds will be a concern, along with the potential for new ignitions due to the rather poor wetting footprints. An upper level low parked in the ern Pacific could migrate toward the Desert Southwest for the late week period. This would favor additional moisture migrating into NM along with higher pcpn chances, but given uncertainty in this situation, a pattern for dry lightning remains a concern. DPorter && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 88 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 85 42 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 48 82 50 88 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 46 87 46 91 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 82 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 48 86 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 50 83 51 89 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 58 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 55 83 56 88 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 40 91 43 95 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 56 94 59 99 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 43 78 43 84 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 59 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 53 85 54 87 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 77 47 83 / 0 5 0 10 Red River....................... 41 73 42 75 / 0 5 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 34 77 38 80 / 0 5 0 10 Taos............................ 45 84 47 88 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 48 82 49 83 / 0 5 0 20 Espanola........................ 55 91 56 94 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 56 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 89 56 92 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 94 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 92 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 59 94 58 97 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 62 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 57 94 58 96 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 58 94 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 94 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 62 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 63 97 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 83 58 86 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 58 86 58 89 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 57 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 89 52 91 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 53 84 54 86 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 57 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 53 87 54 90 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 60 92 61 94 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 56 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 30 Capulin......................... 52 82 51 84 / 0 5 0 5 Raton........................... 51 87 51 90 / 0 5 0 5 Springer........................ 52 88 53 90 / 0 5 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 53 86 53 85 / 0 5 0 10 Clayton......................... 59 88 58 91 / 0 5 0 0 Roy............................. 56 88 55 88 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 59 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 93 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 58 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 61 98 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 59 100 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 61 98 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 67 104 69 101 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 63 95 62 93 / 0 0 0 20 Elk............................. 58 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...42