Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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135 FXUS65 KABQ 150853 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 253 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Rain chances increase across the western two-thirds of the state today as moisture interacts with an approaching storm system. Storm coverage and intensity increases for Monday and Tuesday when strong to severe storms are possible. Damaging wind gusts will be the main severe concern, but large hail is also possible. Locally heavy rainfall may produce flash flooding, particularly over recent burn scars and in northwestern New Mexico. Strong to severe storms are possible in far eastern New Mexico Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Per satellite imagery, what is left of TS Ileana is very unorganized with little convection. Nonetheless, mid and upper level moisture from TS Ileana will shift northward into NM today allowing PWATs to rise from 0.6" this morning, to near 0.8" early this evening. PWATs may continue to rise close to 1" Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will first develop across western NM late this morning and early afternoon as a subtropical jet noses into western NM. Storms will expand through the afternoon and early evening hours across much of the area. With a dry sub-cloud layer, it`s likely that storms will have gusty and erratic winds, potentially over 50 mph. This will wane as dewpoints slowly rise this evening. Storms should also decrease late this evening and overnight as daytime heating is lost, but showers and thunderstorms will not diminish completely. In fact, coverage may decrease between sunset and midnight, but may ramp back up across western NM after midnight as the nose of another jet reaches the Four Corners region. The cloud cover and precipitation should keep low temperatures up to 10 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday across northwest NM. Mid level southwesterly flow will be increasing across northwest NM as well as the H5 low over CA tracks eastward over the Great Basin. Storms across northwest NM will likely drag this momentum down to the surface with any precipitation that develops. Thus, a round of strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts are expected across northwest NM. Modest instability, 30-40kt of 0-6km bulk shear and the increased lift may also yield a few storms capable of small hail. Though the intensity of storms will diminish in the evening, showers and storms will continue across portions of central and western NM through Monday night. Fast storm motions, particularly Monday, should mitigate the flash flooding concerns, but 90th percentile PWATs will mean these will be efficient rain producing storms. Training storms will pose the greatest concern for flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 In the presence of large scale lift, showers and even a few storms will continue through Monday night, eventually increasing in coverage early Tuesday afternoon with the addition of daytime heating. The slug of remnant tropical moisture will quickly get pushed eastward across the state Tuesday as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. Storms will focus along a cold front that will provide a stark transition between a moist atmosphere to the east and a seasonably dry and cool atmosphere to the west. Strengthening 500mb flow will increase shear, continuing the threat of severe storms along and east of the central mtn chain Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rainfall rates associated with storms will pose a flash flood threat, but storm motion will be so fast (25-35mph), so any heavy rainfall will be brief. Tuesday looks to be more unstable than both Sunday and Monday as dry air in the mid-level advects over the moist boundary layer so both large hail and damaging winds are possible east of the central mountain. Once again, the wind threat will dominate since strong winds will easily transfer down to the surface. In addition, the base of the main trough will swing through Tuesday afternoon, creating widespread breezy conditions with windy conditions in the typical locations east of the central mountain chain. With southwest flow in place Tuesday night, the dryline will try to make a push eastward, but models have backed off bringing it back into New Mexico in time for Wednesday afternoon`s storms. As the trough deepens over The Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday, the more southerly component to the winds will help to draw Gulf moisture westward overnight. Strong to severe afternoon storms are possible in the eastern row of counties each afternoon Wednesday through Friday as a result. The aformentioned trough is forecast to open and lift as it moves towards the Rockies, sending another cold front through the region on Friday. Ensembles have minor discrepancies with regard to the timing and depth of this feature, but the overall agreement is pretty good. Its interaction with Gulf moisture will likely create more widespread storms Saturday as it moves through. Temps will cool a few more degrees for the weekend, with high temps ranging from near to several degrees below seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Quiet overnight with VFR conditions prevailing. Moisture will increase through the day Sunday, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. All storms will have the potential for gusty and erratic wind gusts greater than 40kt given a dry sub-cloud layer. Most terminals will have a chance at impacts, though KROW and KFMN will have the lowest chance. Outside of storms, breezy conditions can be expected, especially across northeast NM with gusts near 30kt. Storm coverage will generally decrease overnight, but as the nose of an upper level jet pushes toward the Four Corners, it`s likely storms will not diminish completely across western NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today through Tuesday as subtropical moisture shifts northward into NM and an upper level low tracks over the Great Basin. Storms will have the potential for gusty and erratic winds each day, while small hail will be possible across northwest NM Monday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but fast storm motions should help mitigate the flooding threat. Severe weather, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will also be possible Tuesday through Friday across eastern NM along and east of the dryline. Elsewhere, quieter weather is expected Wednesday through Friday, though a few breezes are likely. Cooler conditions are possible this upcoming weekend as a cold front arrives. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 88 58 79 56 / 20 50 80 40 Dulce........................... 83 46 73 46 / 20 50 90 70 Cuba............................ 81 51 76 50 / 40 50 80 50 Gallup.......................... 83 54 77 49 / 30 50 80 20 El Morro........................ 77 53 76 50 / 50 50 70 20 Grants.......................... 81 51 79 49 / 60 50 70 20 Quemado......................... 77 51 78 52 / 60 50 60 30 Magdalena....................... 80 56 79 55 / 60 40 50 30 Datil........................... 78 51 77 50 / 60 40 60 20 Reserve......................... 84 50 82 52 / 30 30 60 30 Glenwood........................ 87 58 83 60 / 30 40 60 30 Chama........................... 76 45 67 45 / 30 50 90 70 Los Alamos...................... 80 55 75 55 / 30 40 80 50 Pecos........................... 81 52 75 52 / 40 40 70 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 49 72 49 / 20 20 70 40 Red River....................... 68 44 64 44 / 20 20 70 40 Angel Fire...................... 73 39 69 41 / 30 20 70 30 Taos............................ 82 48 76 48 / 20 20 60 40 Mora............................ 78 47 74 47 / 40 40 70 40 Espanola........................ 88 56 84 55 / 20 30 60 50 Santa Fe........................ 82 56 77 56 / 30 40 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 55 82 55 / 30 30 70 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 60 85 62 / 30 30 60 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 61 86 60 / 30 30 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 89 58 87 59 / 30 30 50 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 60 85 60 / 20 30 50 40 Belen........................... 89 58 87 58 / 30 40 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 90 59 87 59 / 20 30 50 50 Bosque Farms.................... 88 55 87 56 / 30 40 40 40 Corrales........................ 90 58 87 60 / 20 30 50 40 Los Lunas....................... 88 56 87 58 / 30 40 40 40 Placitas........................ 86 57 84 58 / 20 30 60 50 Rio Rancho...................... 88 60 86 60 / 20 40 50 50 Socorro......................... 90 61 90 61 / 40 30 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 54 78 53 / 30 30 70 50 Tijeras......................... 83 56 81 55 / 40 30 70 50 Edgewood........................ 82 53 82 50 / 40 40 60 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 48 83 49 / 40 40 60 40 Clines Corners.................. 80 51 78 51 / 40 40 60 40 Mountainair..................... 83 54 81 53 / 40 30 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 83 53 81 54 / 40 30 40 30 Carrizozo....................... 86 59 86 59 / 20 20 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 78 53 79 55 / 30 20 30 30 Capulin......................... 84 52 79 53 / 20 20 30 10 Raton........................... 87 49 81 52 / 20 10 40 20 Springer........................ 87 51 82 54 / 20 10 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 82 50 78 51 / 30 40 60 40 Clayton......................... 90 59 87 61 / 10 20 5 10 Roy............................. 85 56 81 56 / 20 30 30 30 Conchas......................... 92 59 89 60 / 20 30 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 87 59 85 59 / 20 20 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 91 60 90 61 / 20 20 10 30 Clovis.......................... 92 62 91 63 / 5 10 5 10 Portales........................ 92 62 92 63 / 5 10 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 91 61 89 61 / 10 10 10 20 Roswell......................... 96 64 94 68 / 5 5 5 10 Picacho......................... 88 59 87 59 / 10 10 10 20 Elk............................. 86 55 86 56 / 10 10 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...34