393
FXUS65 KABQ 280824
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
224 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
will decrease today. It will also be hotter with many areas in
the upper 80s and 90s. Roswell is likely to reach close to 105
today. A backdoor cold front arriving tonight will increase storm
chances once again across northern NM on Saturday. Heavy rainfall
may lead to more flash flooding, especially around wildfire burn
scars. Sunday and Monday will be active as well with more locally
heavy rainfall over northern and western NM. The chance for storms
will continue Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a possible drier
pattern by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

An unseasonably deep closed low moving east along the Canadian
border today is progged to flatten and elongate the Bermuda, not
monsoon, high as it continues to be a pretender over TX this
morning. Dry mid and low level air works in from the northwest
during the day, mainly shutting down afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances for all but the far western quarter of the
state. Models indicating enough residual low level moisture will
combine with very dry mid level air to result in strong instability
for isolated showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Bermuda
high pumps back up over TX starting Friday night, resulting in
increased mid and low level moisture advection from the southwest.
Meanwhile, a backdoor front is forecast to drop into northeast NM
Saturday morning and with near record to record PWATs, sets the
stage for a marked increase in thunderstorm activity for all but the
northwest third Saturday afternoon. The flash flooding threat for
the HPCC, Blue2, South Fork, Salt and McBride burn scars is also
expected to increase markedly Saturday afternoon. Storm motion is
forecast to be primarily to the north and northeast ranging between
10-15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

By Saturday night, areas of rain and embedded storms will taper
off across northern NM. The moist instability axis will be draped
from southwest to northeast across the area Sunday morning with a
near-record daily PWAT possible again for KABQ. The focus for
showers and storms will shift more into northern and western NM
Sunday afternoon as H5 pressure heights rise over eastern NM. By
Monday, the upper level high will progress even farther west into
NM with the heavy rainfall activity mainly west of the Cont Divide.
Extended forecast models begin diverging on the overall pattern
by Tuesday. A decrease in coverage may occur over northern and
western NM on Tuesday with drier air filtering in from the Four
Corners region. Another backdoor cold front may enter eastern NM
Tuesday night with greater storm coverage possible again for
Wednesday. More dry air may enter northern NM Thursday with yet
another decrease in storm coverage and hotter temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move toward
the east and southeast at speeds around 10-25 kt through the
northwest third of NM overnight. Drier air will filter over the
area from the northwest Friday with mainly isolated showers and
thunderstorms favoring the western quarter of the state. Storm
motion on Friday should generally be toward the east and southeast
around 10-20 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Today will trend drier with hotter temperatures. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will be confined to isolated mainly from the
Divide westward. The drying trend will be short lived, however, as
mid level moisture returns from the southwest while a backdoor cold
front enters northeast NM Saturday morning. This combination results
in a very noticeable increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity
for an increased potential for burn scar flash flooding Saturday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to shift over west
central and northwest NM Sunday and Monday as high pressure aloft
builds back westward over eastern NM. The current weather pattern
mimicking the monsoon is forecast to continue through the next week.
Wednesday looks like the most active thunderstorm day as another
backdoor front is forecast to drop in from the northeast to help
trigger afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  63  94  68 /  10   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  87  47  90  53 /  10   0   5  20
Cuba............................  85  57  88  59 /  10   0  20  30
Gallup..........................  87  55  90  58 /  20   5  10  20
El Morro........................  83  57  85  61 /  20   5  20  30
Grants..........................  87  56  89  60 /  20   5  30  40
Quemado.........................  84  58  87  61 /  20  10  40  40
Magdalena.......................  87  66  89  65 /  20  10  40  50
Datil...........................  83  62  85  61 /  30  10  50  40
Reserve.........................  88  57  92  59 /  20  10  40  30
Glenwood........................  94  70  98  71 /  20  10  40  40
Chama...........................  81  49  84  52 /  10   0  20  40
Los Alamos......................  85  65  86  64 /  10   0  50  50
Pecos...........................  86  62  84  61 /   5   0  60  60
Cerro/Questa....................  83  48  82  49 /   5   0  60  60
Red River.......................  77  48  75  49 /  10   0  70  60
Angel Fire......................  79  41  76  48 /   5   0  70  60
Taos............................  88  54  87  57 /   0   0  50  50
Mora............................  85  55  80  53 /   5   0  70  60
Espanola........................  93  60  94  63 /   5   0  30  40
Santa Fe........................  86  63  87  64 /   5   0  50  60
Santa Fe Airport................  89  61  90  65 /   5   0  40  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  69  94  69 /   5   0  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  70  95  69 /   5   0  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  67  97  69 /   5   0  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  68  96  69 /   5   0  20  40
Belen...........................  96  66  98  68 /   5   5  20  40
Bernalillo......................  95  67  97  69 /   0   0  20  40
Bosque Farms....................  95  64  97  66 /   5   0  20  40
Corrales........................  95  68  97  69 /   5   0  20  40
Los Lunas.......................  95  66  98  68 /   5   0  20  40
Placitas........................  91  67  92  67 /   5   0  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  94  69  96  69 /   5   0  20  40
Socorro.........................  98  73 100  71 /  10  10  20  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  65  86  62 /   5   0  30  40
Tijeras.........................  88  62  89  64 /   5   0  30  50
Edgewood........................  88  59  88  61 /   0   0  30  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  57  89  60 /   0   0  40  50
Clines Corners..................  86  60  83  58 /   0   0  40  50
Mountainair.....................  88  61  89  61 /   5   5  30  50
Gran Quivira....................  89  62  90  61 /  10   5  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  94  70  95  67 /  10  10  30  50
Ruidoso.........................  86  65  86  61 /  30  20  50  40
Capulin.........................  88  57  77  58 /  20  20  60  60
Raton...........................  92  59  84  58 /  10  10  70  50
Springer........................  94  60  86  61 /   5   5  70  60
Las Vegas.......................  86  58  81  58 /   0   0  70  70
Clayton.........................  95  65  84  63 /  10  20  30  60
Roy.............................  91  64  84  62 /  10  10  60  70
Conchas.........................  99  68  93  66 /   5   5  40  70
Santa Rosa......................  95  67  90  65 /   5   5  30  60
Tucumcari....................... 101  69  93  66 /   0   5  20  60
Clovis.......................... 100  71  95  69 /   5  10  30  50
Portales........................ 100  72  98  70 /   5  10  20  50
Fort Sumner.....................  99  71  97  70 /   5   5  20  50
Roswell......................... 104  76 103  75 /  20  20  20  30
Picacho.........................  96  70  95  66 /  40  20  40  40
Elk.............................  94  66  93  61 /  50  20  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...44