221
FXUS65 KABQ 221128 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
528 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Warm, dry and breezy to windy conditions will prevail through the
weekend. The windiest days are expected to be Thursday and
Saturday and these strong winds combined with relative humidity
values below 15 percent will create elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across much of the area. Wind gusts on Saturday
may reach or exceed 50 mph, especially across eastern NM, which
will result in hazardous crosswinds. High temperatures will hover
around normal for late May with little to no precipitation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

A backdoor front is currently progressing south and west through
eastern NM this morning with a northerly wind shift and surface
dewpoints in the upper 30s to low 40s in its wake. Winds are gusty
on the leading edge of the front with gusts of up to 35 mph at
Tucumcari. The front will make it to Roswell shortly before sunrise
with gusts of up to 35 mph possible as the front moves through.
Additionally, the front will seep through the gaps of the central
mountain chain and provide a southeast wind to Santa Fe and an east
wind to the ABQ Metro around sunrise through the mid morning hours
during the morning commute. Winds gusts of up to 35 mph are possible
for locations downwind of Tijeras Canyon during this time. Deep ABL
mixing will then tap into the westerly winds aloft helping to allow
the backdoor front to mix out and allow winds to veer to more of a
southerly and westerly direction come the afternoon across central
NM and the northeast and central highlands. With this, dewpoints
will drop to the single digits to teens across western and central
NM. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible across west central
and northeast NM. Winds across the eastern plains will veer from
northeast in the morning to south by the afternoon allowing
dewpoints to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. In terms of high
temperatures, it will be a touch warmer compared to Tuesday across
western and central NM and around 5 to 7 degrees cooler across the
eastern plains due to the effect of this morning`s backdoor front.
Southwest to west winds taper off after sunset

The dryline across West Texas backs to the TX/NM state line come
sunrise Thursday morning and this higher surface moisture could
result in some low clouds across the southeast plains near the TX
state line. Low clouds and moisture quickly mixes well east of the
state shortly after sunrise thanks to increasing westerly flow south
of an upper low moving across the northern and central Rockies. Deep
ABL mixing will tap into 30 to 40 kts winds at 500 mb resulting in
stronger west winds compared to Wednesday, around 20 to 30 mph with
gusts of up to 40 mph. Dewpoints will plummet into the single digits
and teens across the entire state resulting in single digit minimum
relative humidity values and some critical fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

A backdoor cold front will slide south and west across the eastern
plains Thursday night through early Friday. Winds will quickly
veer around to the south during the afternoon, but fortunately,
wind speeds will be a little lighter than on Thursday. High
temperatures will take a slight hit, with most locations 3 to 10
degrees cooler than Thursday. Little change in temps are expected
elsewhere with breezy to locally windy west to southwest winds
expected.

A Pacific trough is still expected to cross NM on Saturday. H7
wind speeds will increase to between 35 and 40kts. Deep mixing
(likely closer to 600 mb) combined with a strong surface pressure
gradient due to a 993 mb low over SE CO will result in a windy
day across NM. The strongest winds will likely be across eastern
NM with gusts near 50 mph. Winds will relax Saturday evening, but
breezy to windy conditions will return on Sunday with continued
dry, westerly flow aloft.

A weak front will back into eastern NM early next week as weak
ridging develops over the Desert Southwest. This will allow Gulf
moisture to advect westward, potentially even west of the Rio
Grande Valley by Wednesday. Though a stray storm is possible as
early as Tuesday afternoon, better chances for precipitation and
perhaps a strong to severe storm appear to be Wednesday across
eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

A dry backdoor cold front currently across the central highlands
and through KROW will move through KSAF and KABQ around 14Z.
North to northeast winds on the leading edge of the backdoor front
across eastern NM will be breezy with gusts of up to 30 kts
possible. The east wind at KABQ from the backdoor front could
produce gusts of up to 25 kts through around 16Z. Westerly flow
aloft mixing down to the surface will wash out the backdoor front
first across central areas late morning followed by the eastern
highlands midday and the eastern plains come the mid to late
afternoon. West to southwest winds in the afternoon will be breezy
across west central areas including KGUP and the northeast
highlands including KLVS with gusts of up to 30 kts possible.
Winds across these areas drop off shortly after sunset. The
dryline across West Texas backs up to far eastern NM eastern
Thursday morning. This added surface moisture could produce some
low clouds on the caprock including KCVN and KCVS around 23/09Z.
Low clouds look to stay south of KTCC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN NM THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY...

A backdoor front currently moving through eastern NM will provide a
temporary and slight increase in relative humidity values and cooler
temperatures today, while western and portions of central NM remain
warm, very dry and unstable. An upper level low will move east
across the northern and central Rockies with stronger south of the
low moving over the state Thursday. Deep ABL mixing will result in
breezy to windy conditions by the afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity values will drop into the single digits for almost all
areas and teens across the northern mountain peaks. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across western NM and the middle RGV
for around 2 to 3 hours Thursday afternoon and evening, but could be
longer is winds trend upward. However, winds will be a touch
stronger across the upper Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico
resulting in critical fire weather conditions from midday through
sunset Thursday. Soil moisture across eastern New Mexico has
decreased rapidly the last few days and despite some greenup from
last week`s precipitation, curing of fine fuels is likely occurring.
For that reason a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these
respective zones.

Upper level winds and thus surface winds decrease a little on Friday
in the wake of Thursday`s system. Some locally critical fire weather
conditions will still possible for 1 to 3 hours across west central
and northeast NM Friday afternoon. Widespread critical fire weather
conditions is anticipated Saturday as stronger winds aloft
associated with a shortwave trough over the Great Basin move
directly overhead. Winds look to stay elevated on Sunday due to a
trailing upper low moving across the northern and central Rockies
and this could result in one more day of critical fire weather
conditions across eastern New Mexico. Wind speeds decrease early
next week as an upper level ridge strengthens over the region.
Additionally, higher moisture begins to move into eastern NM on
Monday behind a backdoor front increasing further heading into mid
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  78  44  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  73  36  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  74  40  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  76  37  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  73  38  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  77  37  78  37 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  76  39  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  79  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  75  41  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  80  37  80  35 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  83  50  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  67  34  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  73  48  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  72  43  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  66  41  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  63  34  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  65  32  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  73  37  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  71  40  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  79  45  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  75  46  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  77  44  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  85  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  50  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  47  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  84  50  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  85  48  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  47  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  79  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  83  51  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  89  51  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  77  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  78  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  42  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  43  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  78  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  78  45  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  83  53  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  76  50  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  69  43  77  39 /  10   5   0   0
Raton...........................  75  41  81  41 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  75  41  82  43 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  73  43  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  74  50  85  45 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  73  47  83  46 /   5   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  81  52  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  80  52  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  80  54  92  49 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  79  56  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  82  56  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  54  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  88  57  96  57 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  84  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  85  52  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NMZ104-121-123-125-126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71