987
FXUS65 KABQ 271144 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A heightened risk of flash flooding, especially over
recent burn scars continues today. Storm motions will be quicker,
but locally heavy rain will still threaten rain soaked and sensitive
areas. A Flood Watch remains in effect for today across a large
portion of central and western NM as a result. After a drier day
Friday, afternoon thunderstorm activity increases again this weekend
and well into next week. This will keep the risk of localized heavy
rainfall and flash flooding going. Temperatures rise to near or
above 100F across the eastern plains Friday before falling back into
the 80s and 90s through northeastern and east-central NM Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The potential for severe to extreme burn scar flash flooding will
persist today. Areas that have seen recent heavy rains as well as
urban drainages will also be susceptible to flash flooding.

The moist instability axis is draped from south to north across
central NM early this morning between a high centroid over the TX
panhandle and another over northern Sonora. Forecast models are
still indicating a very active day today as the trough axis over
central NM moves eastward while a 50-60kt upper level speed max
approaches the Four Corners region. Near-record PWATs along with
afternoon heating, sufficient shear, and surface-based instability
will lead to another crop of showers and storms forming over the
higher terrain around 11am. This activity will move faster than
Wednesday however training cells may lead to localized areas of
torrential rainfall. BUKFIT heavy rainfall vector analysis shows
storms propagating very slowly eastward while linear segments
move northeastward. If any of these training cells develop over a
burn scar then severe to extreme flash flooding may occur. A few
strong cells are also possible across northern NM with hail and
damaging winds. The latest SPC convective outlook shows a large
`Marginal Risk` area over northern NM while the WPC ERO shows a
large `Slight Risk` for excessive rainfall over central and
western NM.

Showers and storms will persist well into the night across western
and central NM as the right entrance region of the aforementioned
speed max shifts slowly east across northern NM. The current Flash
Flood Watch is in effect until midnight tonight.

Relatively drier and more stable air is expected to move into
western NM Friday but it will still be very moist for late June.
Showers and storms will still form over the high terrain but with
less coverage than recent days. The favored areas for locally heavy
rainfall will be over the southern high terrain and parts of eastern
NM. Max temps may approach Heat Advisory criteria around Roswell.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The long term begins with Friday`s drier westerly flow
coming to an end Friday night into Saturday morning. The 597dm H5
ridge over TX builds westward again with a backdoor front sliding
into northeastern NM. High temperatures fall 5F-10F behind the front
for Saturday. Afternoon convection looks to initiate along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain thanks to easterly upslope flow
leading into this area. Another area of convective initiation will
focus over the Continental Divide. Storm motions will generally be
toward the north for storms south of I-40, and more northeast to
east off the northern mountains. Storms will steadily drift over
surrounding lower elevations of the northwestern half of the
forecast area, lasting the longest over northeastern NM down toward
the I-40 corridor where the highest instability will be located.
This pattern puts the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar under the
bullseye for heavy rainfall. Sunday sees the H5 high build to 598dm
pushing further westward into eastern NM. This pushes a plume of
monsoonal moisture advecting northward on the western periphery of
the H5 high through western NM and eastern AZ. Storms will favor
areas along and east of the I-25 corridor and the northern mountains
Sunday afternoon. Storm motions will generally be toward the north.

The H5 high over TX begins to nudge back east falling to 596dm
allowing for more monsoonal moisture to push into western and
central NM Monday. PWATs look to rise to the 1.10" to 1.30" range,
allowing for very rain efficient thunderstorms to form again.
Monday`s convective activity looks to again favor central, western
and northern sections of the forecast area. With the ridge loosening
its influence over NM and a troughing pattern passing north of the
region, Monday could see a rather active day of thunderstorms.
Localized flash flooding will continue to be a threat, especially
over recent burn scars. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms
developing over the high terrain and drifting over surrounding lower
elevations continue Tuesday and Wednesday during a transition period
as the extreme western portion of the Bermuda High continues to
migrate back east. Both the GFS and ECMWF are resolving the
development of a more traditional monsoon high over the western
CONUS bringing drier northwesterly flow into northern NM toward the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

SHRA/TS has persisted all night with activity still redeveloping
along the Cont Divide and over parts of eastern NM at sunrise.
Forecast models still show coverage decreasing between sunrise
and 11am, except for locations around the northern high terrain.
Convective initiation will likely occur again over the remainder
of the high terrain by early to mid afternoon. Storms will move
toward the east around 10 to 15kt with direct hits capable of
producing brief IFR with heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds.
SHRA/TS is likely to persist well into the night once again in
many areas along and south of I-40.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions for the next 7 days. A
deep tap of moisture over NM today will generate another crop of
showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall. Rates may exceed 2
inches per hour in some areas. Burn scar flash flooding may become
severe with debris flows possible. Friday will be relatively drier
with hotter temperatures and less coverage of showers and storms
with heavy rainfall. A backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM
Friday night and bring another uptick in storm coverage Saturday.
This activity will be heavy once again with flash flooding possible.
Daily rounds of showers and storms will continue thru next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  62  91  63 /  50  40  10   0
Dulce...........................  84  49  87  48 /  50  30  10   0
Cuba............................  85  56  85  58 /  60  40  10   0
Gallup..........................  87  55  89  56 /  60  40  10   0
El Morro........................  81  57  83  58 /  70  50  10   0
Grants..........................  84  56  88  56 /  80  50  10   0
Quemado.........................  84  59  85  59 /  80  50  20  10
Magdalena.......................  85  64  88  67 /  80  60  20  10
Datil...........................  82  59  84  63 /  90  50  30   5
Reserve.........................  88  56  91  57 /  80  40  20  10
Glenwood........................  93  68  96  70 /  70  30  20  10
Chama...........................  78  48  81  50 /  80  40  20   0
Los Alamos......................  83  62  86  65 /  80  50  20   0
Pecos...........................  85  59  86  62 /  70  60  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  78  47  83  49 /  60  50  10   5
Red River.......................  70  48  75  48 /  60  50  10   5
Angel Fire......................  76  45  79  44 /  60  50  10   0
Taos............................  82  54  87  54 /  50  60   5   0
Mora............................  79  54  85  54 /  70  30  10   0
Espanola........................  87  61  92  61 /  70  50   5   0
Santa Fe........................  83  61  86  64 /  60  60  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  88  61  91  62 /  50  60   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  67  91  71 /  60  60  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  67  93  69 /  50  60   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  66  95  69 /  50  50   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  67  94  70 /  50  50   5   0
Belen...........................  93  65  96  66 /  50  50  10   0
Bernalillo......................  91  67  95  69 /  50  50   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  92  63  95  66 /  50  60   5   0
Corrales........................  91  66  95  69 /  50  50   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  93  64  95  67 /  50  50   5   0
Placitas........................  88  65  91  69 /  50  60  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  90  67  93  69 /  50  50   5   0
Socorro.........................  95  69  98  73 /  60  50  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  62  86  66 /  60  60  10   0
Tijeras.........................  88  63  91  66 /  60  60  10   0
Edgewood........................  86  61  90  62 /  70  50  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  58  91  58 /  70  60  10   0
Clines Corners..................  82  58  85  61 /  70  40  10   0
Mountainair.....................  88  60  89  62 /  70  50  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  88  60  90  63 /  80  50  20   5
Carrizozo.......................  91  67  94  71 /  60  60  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  84  62  86  64 /  80  40  50  10
Capulin.........................  85  59  88  57 /  50  30  10  10
Raton...........................  89  57  92  58 /  50  30  10   0
Springer........................  91  59  94  60 /  60  30  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  82  59  86  58 /  60  30  10   0
Clayton.........................  91  66  96  65 /  30  20  10  10
Roy.............................  88  63  93  63 /  60  20  10   0
Conchas.........................  96  69 100  69 /  50  30   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  90  67  95  66 /  50  50   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  97  70 100  69 /  30  20   0   0
Clovis..........................  97  71  99  71 /  20  20   5  10
Portales........................  97  72 100  71 /  10  20   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  96  71 100  70 /  30  30   5   5
Roswell......................... 101  75 104  76 /  20  30  10  10
Picacho.........................  93  67  95  68 /  70  30  40  10
Elk.............................  89  64  92  64 /  70  40  50  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ201-
202-204>207-211>224-226-229-233-239.

Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ211-214-215-
226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42