590
FXUS63 KABR 061131
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
631 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will ramp back up today with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible
  in north central SD and east into areas around the Prairie Coteau
  and west central MN.

- There is a 30% chance of light showers and the potential for a few
rumbles of thunder Friday night. Otherwise, the next 20% chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Monday night.

- Above normal temperatures will return Tuesday-Thursday of next
  week, with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

As of 3 AM CDT, skies are clear. Skies are expected to remain clear
or mostly clear through Friday. Temperatures around the area this
morning are in the high 50s to low 60s with winds out of the west to
northwest.

Again today we are expecting strong winds in northeast SD. We are
still under an upper level trough with a strong pressure gradient
and lapse rates are still quite steep. Winds at the top of the
mixing layer, depending on the model, are between 35 and 45 knots.
Strongest wind gusts (up to 50 mph) are expected around the Prairie
Coteau into west central MN today along with Corson county. Winds
are expected to diminish around sunset. High pressure moves in at
the surface tonight and Friday is expected to have much lighter
winds. Temperatures will be around normal with highs in the mid 70s
to around 80 today and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Our next chance (30% chance over eastern SD/west central MN) will be
Friday evening. Otherwise, dry weather should continue through the
day Monday. This will be as the otherwise steady northwesterly flow
at 500mb flattens out a bit as a secondary low sinks across southern
Canada for basically the remainder of the long term forecast, and a
weak wave pushes across the Central to Northern Plains. At the
surface, low pressure east of the Rockies will begin organizing with
a trough extending up across eastern SD Friday night. MLCAPE values
over 200 J/kg looks to stay mainly over our southeastern counties,
with the operational GFS being more robust/deeper with the trough.
The 00Z Canadian is of similar strength, but about 3 hours slower.
So, there is the potential for changes given these differences. At
this point, we`ll keep any mention of thunderstorms in the slight
chance range.

The surface trough will sink to our southeast, with high pressure
sinking overhead across SD by 18Z Saturday and a ridge remaining in
place through the day Sunday. This will result in cooler air
advecting in with 850mb temperatures falling into the single digits
late Friday night through much of Saturday. While the 25-75th
percentiles for temperatures are within about 6 degrees for highs
Saturday, they increase to about 10 degrees for Sunday. The current
high temperature forecast (in the 70s) is closer to the 70th
percentile/warmer side, and has the potential to be a few degrees
different by the time Sunday comes around.

The 500mb ridge that`s been residing across the western U.S. will
briefly shift overhead Monday before becoming surpressed by the
central Canadian low. Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms
(20% chance) is Monday night, with low pressure over eastern MT/WY
at 12Z Monday surging northeast to Manitoba by 06Z Tuesday, and
pushing a cold front across our forecast area. Model consensus is
for the boundary to be to our southeast by 18Z Tuesday, with
precipitation lingering only over our far eastern counties during
the daytime hours. A warming trend looks to take hold after Monday
with highs mainly in the 80s. A few 90 degree readings from midweek
on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue, with winds increasing with peak
gusts out of the northwest 30 to near 40kts from 15 to 23Z today.
The weakest winds will be over PIR today.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>008-011-019>021.

MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF