Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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461 FXUS63 KABR 060520 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds subside this evening before ramping back up again (gusts 35- 45 mph) on Thursday. - Slight chance (15-25%) of light moisture Friday evening through early Saturday, otherwise, the forecast reminds dry through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Updated for 006Z TAF discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 802 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Wind speeds will diminish through the evening hours, therefore allowed the Wind Advisory to expire. No other changes made tot he forecast at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Several observations showing gusts from 45 to 55 mph across the CWA, although a higher concentration along and west of the James River. It`s been a bit tough for the southeast CWA near the Watertown region to get advisory-level speeds, and may consider canceling the Wind Advisory early in this area. Otherwise, will leave the headline in place until its current expiration time of 01Z. After this time, winds look to subside for the overnight hours as temperatures drop into the 50s. On Thursday, the pressure gradient remains rather tight across the region and will once again be looking at windy conditions. Focus this time is over the eastern CWA, where gusts could meet or exceed 45 mph. Will let mid shift take a closer look at this potential, and just how far west to go with any possible headline decisions. Surface high pressure then settles in for Thursday night, with light winds and dry conditions. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Overall a drier weather pattern expected through the long term as Clusters agree on northwest flow continuing over the Northern Plains with an elongated ridge over the western Conus and a trough over the eastern CONUS for the start of the long term. Within this pattern, a broad area of low pressure (2 splitting lows) are positioned over southeastern Canada into the Northeastern US and the other low over central Saskatchewan/Alberta at 12Z Friday. There is some differences between the ensembles on how deep the low becomes at this time with Cluster 2 (53% GEFS/16% ENS/15% GEPS) keeping it one elongated closed low. High pressure will still be dominant over the area through the day, keeping conditions dry. We will see pressure falls through the afternoon as an area of low pressure will be over the Rockies. Cluster 1, made up mostly of GEFS/GEPS, seems to be the only ensemble indicating possible light moisture from this over parts of the Coteau and southeastern CWA Friday evening-early Saturday. Latest NBM has slight (15-25%) pops for this area during this time. For the weekend the +PNA pattern continues with the ridge pushing just slightly east on Sunday with the trough and quite the broad area of low pressure spinning over the Northeastern US extending westward into parts of the Midwest. A high pressure system forming over the central Plains will keep the area dry as it shifts east/southeastward into Sunday. Early next week, Clusters agree on the +PNA pattern continuing, with the overall system becoming more broad with the ridge being the dominant feature over much of the central and western CONUS by Tuesday. Well into the extended this ridge will push east but lots of differences on timing and intensity per Clusters. Another high sinks in from Canada on Monday with possible slight chances (15-25%) of moisture Tuesday, but confidence remains low on this. Highs for Friday will rebound from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, which is around to slightly above normal. Saturday will be a bit cooler with temps ranging in the 70s. Sunday`s highs are a bit tricky as the NBM 25-75th spread is a 7-12 degree difference. Right now forecasted highs will be in the 60s and 70s. Quite a difference by middle of next week as this ridge moves overhead with forecasted highs in the 80s to even around 90 possible, but a 9-12 degree temps spread continues per NBM. . && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through the day Thursday. Northwest winds will increase into the 25 to 35 knot range Thursday morning, and will continue into the early evening hours before diminishing around sunset. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...KK SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...Parkin