342
FXUS63 KABR 290812
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
312 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with
  temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

- The next opportunity for severe storms looks to be organizing on
  Monday as a low pressure system and plenty of moisture will move
  back into the region. Details on timing and threats will become
  more clear in the coming days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

An upper level shortwave trough currently over the region will exit
to the east this afternoon. Will then see northwest flow develop
tonight before ridging builds over the Northern Plains on Sunday.

At the surface, the region is currently between low pressure to the
east and approaching high pressure from the west. Seeing some low
cloud cover across much of North Dakota, and will likely see some of
this drift over northern South Dakota today. By this afternoon, the
high to the west will settle in over the Northern Plains, and should
then see the cloud cover begin to dissipate or exit the area. The
high will remain the dominant feature over the area tonight, then
will gradually get pushed to the east on Sunday as low pressure
slides across the Rockies. Will see a decent pressure gradient
develop between these two systems. Southeasterly winds will increase
through the day, especially across central South Dakota, where gusts
in excess of 40 mph will be possible. No precipitation is expected
today through the daytime hours Sunday.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Sunday will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Sunday night we are still under an upper level ridge which will
continue to move east through Monday afternoon. Monday evening, a
trough moves in from the west bringing a chance for showers and
storms. An upper level low will track over at least part of the area
Friday. The main 3 deterministic models continue to show similar
tracks and timing to previous model runs.

SPC is still highlighting the entire area in a 15% risk of severe
storms Monday as that trough moves in from the west. Abundant
moisture will be in place due to southerly winds drawing up moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico and both the warm and cold fronts will
provide lift to help storm formation. All hazards are possible.
Showers and storms may continue into Tuesday morning. Thursday will
be the next best chance for rain as the low approaches. 30 to 55%
PoPs start Thursday morning and continue late Thursday night before
diminishing Friday morning. Storms are possible, but severe
potential is hard to determine at this time.

Temperatures through the period will be bouncing up and down from
around average to around 10 degrees below average. The coolest day
for the entire area looks to be Friday as showers dissipate but
clouds remain. Wind gusts of over 30 mph will move west to east
across the area Sunday night through the day Monday. Wind gusts look
to stay below 35 mph for the rest of the term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will deteriorate overnight as MVFR stratus moves
in from the north. Cigs are expected to improve to VFR levels by
early afternoon.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin